Sunday, September 27, 2009

Linebackers

Mychal Sisson, OLB, Colorado State- Sisson is only a Sophomore, so he has two years left before he’s eligible for the draft. He’s a big reason that this Rams defense is on the come and should be good this year and next. He needs to get bigger and stronger, but that’s easy enough since he will have the time to do so. He has good speed and instincts, and could develop into a very effective 3-4 style rush OLB.

Ricky Brewer, ILB, Colorado State- Brewer plays next to Sisson in the CSU 3-4 hybrid defense. Brewer is a year older and not quite as naturally athletic as Sisson but he has very good instincts. This is a position that is in vogue in the league right now, and a lot of the prominent guys in the league currently are getting up in age. If he can show improvement, his stock should go up considerably based on team needs.

Darryl Sharpton, MLB, Miami- Sharpton is one of my favorite returning LBs this year. Out of the LBs I watched last year, there were times where Sharpton really jumped out and he made you notice his skills. His only downfall is that he would disappear for as many plays as he stood out for. If he can become more consistent this year, he will move his stock up very high and I could see him pushing the late first or early second round range based on the closing speed, blitzing ability, and tackling skills he showed on film.

Sean Spencer, OLB, Miami- Spencer looked unreal last year as a true Freshman, and I expect big things from him in the next two years. If he can get bigger and stronger yet maintain his elite level speed he can be a sure fire first rounder. He’s very instinctive for such a young player as well and that is what impressed me the most. With Sharpton and Spencer, this Miami defense could be very good once again this year.

Sean Witherspoon, OLB, Missouri- Missouri lost a lot of talent in this past year’s draft, so Witherspoon is really going to have to step up as he will no doubt be seeing a good amount of game plans designed to take him out of the game. I’m not a huge fan of Witherspoon as his instincts are not where they should be for a player his age. Having said this, his athletic ability is top notch. He’s a perfect fit as a WLB in a Cover-2 style defense because he’s at his best when he’s allowed to run and flow freely to the ball. He’s not great in coverage, but it’s something he can show this year. If he can tighten these few things up, he has the athletic talent of a first rounder.

Mark Herzlich, OLB, Boston College- I’m adding Herzlich even though I know he will be out all season while battling a rare form of bone cancer. More than anything, I wish him the best of luck and hope he wins this battle so he can return to the field of play at some point. Looking at it from the business end of the draft, Herzlich will need to prove he can be a strong and healthy player when he returns next year. The only knock I had on him was that he struggled to shed blocks with his hands, but other than that he’s a complete OLB who can do everything well (rushes the passer well, is a very good coverage linebacker, and he shows great hustle).

Greg Jones, MLB, Michigan State- Jones is a pure 4-3 MLB and showed great instincts and athleticism last year. He needs to be a bit stouter at the point of attack as he is a bit undersized for the position, but if he can show the ability to take on blocks, shed them, and make tackles he should be considered a high round prospect (first to high third).

Sean Lee, MLB, Penn State- I was excited to see Lee improve last year, but he suffered a torn knee ligament in Spring and missed the season. He has played outside and inside and I think he is best fit inside. If he can show that the season off did not affect his speed or ability to change directions, he should be in good shape to push his stock further up into first day recognition. He has good instincts and should look even better now with a very good OLB next to him.

Navarro Bowman, OLB, Penn State- ‘Linebacker U’ should hold that tradition up for at least this year with both Lee and Bowman on the same defense When the season is over, Bowman may be the most highly regarded of the PSU LB prospects since LaVarr Arrington. Bowman is extremely fast, very powerful, and makes game changing plays. His instincts are a bit behind this part of his game, but he makes up for that by being able to get back into position to make plays using his athletic ability. He should have a big year now that Lee is back to help stop the run up the middle.

Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama- This will be McClain’s true Junior year and I fully expect him to declare for the draft. He’s started since day one of his Freshman year and he showed the potential to be a future first rounder even as early as that point. McClain is just a very good linebacker and is an ideal fit in the 3-4. He’s extremely instinctive and has such good field awareness that he seems to be a step ahead of everyone else on the field. It helps having a giant nose tackle in front of him keeping him clean, but his technique is very consistent in shedding blockers and making plays. This Bama defense is absolutely loaded with talent so McClain should shine this year. He’s a first rounder without a doubt in my opinion.

Stevenson Sylvester, OLB, Utah- Sylvester took over Utah’s bowl game last year and pretty much single handedly beat the Crimson Tide with several game changing plays. I’m very interested to see if this will carry over this season, especially since most offensive coordinators will have seen the same things I did and will game plan around his skills. If he can continue to stand out, he will be very highly regarded for his versatility and ability to rush the passer, tackle, and cover. I really like Sylvester and hope he has another solid year so more people will recognize his talent.

Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas- Kindle is a bit of a hybrid as he also played some down DE opposite last year’s first rounder Brian Orakpo. He will be a perfect fit as a rush OLB in a 3-4 as he has decent ability to drop into coverage and he can definitely bring heat in the pass rush. I’m most interested in seeing how he opens up his hips in coverage and if he can stay with RBs or TEs in man defense. I already know he can rush the passer very well.

Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina- I’m a bit surprised Norwood didn’t come out last year as he would have been a second or third round pick at worst. Norwood is a lot like Kindle in that he is excellent coming forward toward the ball and rushing the passer. He’s a big OLB with good speed and is probably versatile enough to play SLB in a 4-3 or OLB in a 3-4. he should have a very good year, even though he will not be surrounded by a lot of other talent to take double teams away. If he can still shine, his stock should move into the first round range.

Brandon Spikes, MLB, Florida- I seemed to be the only person glad to see Spikes come back for his Senior year. A lot of other draft experts were much higher on him than I was, but I still think he has potential to be very good. His instincts were no where near his physical ability after watching him play the past two years, especially for someone who has been a starter as long as he has. If he can show a better awareness for tracking the play earlier, read his keys, and continue to use his physical skills, he could be unstoppable. If he can put it all together, he will more than likely be a top half of the first round type of player.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Offensive Line

Russell Okung, Oklahoma State- Okung is probably one of the two-three highest rated returning OT’s, but I’m still looking for a good bit of improvement from him before I’m sold that he’s a sure fire first rounder. He has the size and feet to play on the left side in the NFL, but he had poor technique and consistency last year. Plus he seemed to get driven off the ball a bit too much because he had the tendency to get too high in his stance. Those are all minor things that can be worked on with some effort and coaching, so he may very well turn in a strong Senior year. This is a good Cowboys team, so Okung will get some time in the national spotlight.

Ciron Black, LSU- Black is very experienced but I’m not sold that he can be an NFL LT. He has struggled against speed rushers his past two years, and I don’t know if he will ever get quicker feet. If he can improve his kick step, he might work out, but more than likely will need to move to the right side. I’m just not too high on Black, but he’s a very experienced starter with potential to start in the NFL at RT or OG.

Trent Williams, Oklahoma- The only flaw in Williams’ game is that he can be a bit sloppy with his technique, but otherwise he is my favorite returning player at the position. The most important thing for me to watch with Williams will be how he handles the move from RT to LT. He did a good job on the right side last year, and proved that he is solid in both the pass and run game. He will face faster guys on the left side, so if he can handle that, I think he’s definitely a top 10 pick. If he does not handle the speed rush well, I still think he’s a first rounder as a RT.

John Jerry, Mississippi- Jerry was one of the better RTs I saw last year, so I’m excited to see what he will do this year with Michael Oher gone. I would guess they will move him to LT this year, but I’m not sure that will be the right decision. Jerry is a big, mauling run blocker who I think will be very good at the same position in the NFL. With a very strong team returning, it will be interesting to see if Jerry can stand out with all of the other talent.

Zane Beadles, Utah- This is a name you probably have not come across on other draft websites. I liked what I saw in Beadles last year, and the Utes will have their hands full with a tougher 2009 schedule after going unbeaten in 2008. Beadles had some of the best feet and pass blocking technique from all of the film I watched last year, and that is ultimately what will help push him up draft charts. If he can show he’s gotten stronger in the run game, and hold his own against the speed rush, I would not be surprised to see his name a lot more come post season time.

Sam Young, Notre Dame- Young is a four year starter and a definite RT. He was tried out at LT for a year, and the experiment did not work as he was not quick enough to stop the speed rushers. I still think that Young has shown enough improvement over his four years to warrant a late first or early second round grade. Being that he is strictly a RT, this may push his value a bit, but he’s still someone capable of starting right away at the next level.

Sergio Render, Virginia Tech- Render is the only interior offensive lineman I have listed as I just didn’t see many center or guard prospects that stood out in this draft class. Render is a solid all around player, and will prove his draft worth in week one against mammoth Alabama NT Terrance Cody.

Tight Ends

Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma- It’s a shame that Gresham will miss the entire 2009 season after having knee surgery last week. I thought Gresham would have been a top 15 pick in last year’s draft, and had he shown even a slight improvement in his blocking this year, he would have been a sure fire top 10 pick. He has an ideal size/speed ratio for the position, and he’s an incredible athlete. He’s built like a basketball player and almost uses his body like a power forward to gain position on the defender and get to jump balls. Gresham will have to hope he’s ready in time for the post season all-star games and the combine, as a lot will be riding on performing well at these. I think regardless of missing the season, as long as he checks out medically, he’s a sure fire first rounder. But he will definitely lose some money more than likely.

Dennis Pitta, BYU- Pitta is a bit undersized and is more along the lines of the recent string of pass catching TEs. He’s got some good skills in this area though, and he would fit nicely into a team like Indy that lets their TE’s find soft spots in the defense. If he can show decent enough blocking, it may help to push him up into consideration within the first three rounds.

Rob Gronkowski, Arizona- Gronkowski may be the player that will benefit the most from Gresham getting hurt. He’s more of a throwback TE similar to Brandon Pettigrew from last year, who went to the Lions in the first round. He is a good blocker, has good size, and is a reliable pass catcher. He’s not a game changer in the passing game, but he doesn’t have to be. He’s just a very well rounded player at the position, and I could see his stock going up drastically this year as he won’t have many peers with Gresham out.

Wide Receivers

Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State- Bryant is built like the prototypical number one WR in the NFL. He’s big, he’s strong, he’s fast, he can jump, and he is a great return man to boot. My only minor problem with him is that he doesn’t catch the ball consistently away from his framework. If he can show improvement in this area, and it’s a very minor area, I think he will come out early and could be one of the top 15 picks in the draft. He’s definitely a difference maker at this position.

Philip Livas, Louisiana Tech- Livas is a bit of a sleeper. He’s only a Junior, so he technically has two more years to play, but he is a playmaker, he’s not a true WR, as he plays in the slot, in some wildcat formations, and some end around running plays. Livas is undersized and plays against lower competition, but he’s a guy that will be a very valuable pick for a team willing to take a chance on a tweener guy who will start off as a return specialist and potentially contribute out of the slot. He’s very fast, and you can’t teach speed.

Brandon LaFell, LSU- I was very glad to see LaFell pull his name out of the draft last year. He wasn’t ready to go, and probably would have slipped a lot lower than some though (second round or so). LaFell needs to show more consistency from play to play in his route running and effort. He had a tendency to dog it a bit on plays going away from him. If he can improve on these small points, he’s going to be very close to Bryant as the top WR in this draft. He has all of the physical tools you want; he just needs to match consistent effort with his natural talent. That extra year of seasoning could make a difference in millions of dollars come draft day.

Jacoby Ford, Clemson- What I liked best about Ford was his ability to get off the jam, and his speed to gain separation from that point. This is an often overlooked trait in college WRs, and it’s the one thing that causes many to fail right away in the NFL. It doesn’t matter how great a route runner a guy is, or how fast he can run, if he can’t get off the line right away he’s done for in the NFL. He’s probably not a high pick, but I think he will be a very good value pick sleeper come draft day.

Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati- The only thing working against Gilyard is his physical stature. He’s a bit shorter and lighter than you want on a perimeter receiver, but Steve Smith has shown you can still excel in the NFL if you are undersized. If Gilyard continues to show he can gain separation from the bigger CBs with his quickness, it will go a long way to prove to me that he’s worthy of a first day pick. His ability to return kicks helps his value a great deal as well.

AJ Green, Georgia- Only a true Sophomore, it’s hard to believe Green has two more years to develop. If he can stay healthy, he’s going to be a top 10 pick in the draft. Like Bryant, he has all of the physical tools of a top shelf NFL WR. What will be interesting to watch with Green is how many touches he will get with a new QB being broken in (after Stafford departed to the Lions in the 2009 draft).

Julio Jones, Alabama- Everything I said about Green applies to Jones as well. Jones needs to continue to mature physically and stay healthy. If he does that, he could be the next Calvin Johnson or Brandon Marshall (minus the domestic abuse).

Jordan Shipley, Texas- I love Shipley, but he will probably slip on draft day. He’s almost a clone of Wes Welker. He’s not the big and physical type of outside receiver like Bryant/Jones/Green, but he’s a precise route runner with great quickness in and out of his cuts. He’s a smart receiver, and has great field awareness and vision. His return ability is top notch as well. If I’m running a team’s front office, I hope other teams pass on him and I get a great deal in the third round or onward.

Damian Williams, USC- I’m very weary of USC receivers based on their track records of producing recently once they have made it to the NFL. I think that may stop with Williams. He was overshadowed last year on a supremely talented team, and I think he will shine this year (even if they run the football a lot with their stable of top notch backs). He might be in contention for the top three overall WR spots with another solid year.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Running Backs

Like most years, this is a position where you don’t see many Senior prospects. Most young guys know this position is the hardest to stick around at in the NFL, so I don’t blame most for leaving early. There are some very good prospects at this position though, and at least one who has the ability to be a top shelf NFL back.

Jahvid Best, California- Best was definitely one of the better running back prospects I saw last year, and even if he maintains the level from last year, he’s definitely the top prospect at the position. There isn’t much to not like about Best. He has great vision, he cuts and gets to top speed immediately, and he runs bigger than he is by keeping his pads low on contact. The only thing that will hurt him is that he has a history of injuries. I wouldn’t think twice about taking him in the top half of the draft though as he’s an explosive playmaker that can change a game with one touch of the ball.

Josh Adams, Wake Forest- Adams is probably a name you won’t hear much other than on this blog as I like what I see in him. He’s undersized, but another year may have allowed him to put some bulk on. He has great long speed, good short area quickness, and excellent vision. Like I mentioned for Riley Skinner, this team’s success will fall heavily on their shoulders seeing as the majority of their defense graduated. So Adams will get his time to shine.

Noel Devine, West Virginia- Devine is a lot like Best. He’s extremely explosive, but he’s a bit undersized and has had some injury problems. Steve Slaton has shown us smaller backs can carry the load at the next level, so Devine should benefit from this factor. He has one of the best accelerations I have seen in a running back, which is what will push him into the top two rounds of the draft.

Da’rel Scott, Maryland- Scott is someone I want to pay close attention to this year. In what little game film I saw, he was very explosive and flat out ran away from defenders. He also ran with good between the tackles power, which a lot of these top RBs haven’t shown enough of. That reason alone may help push his value up.

Trindon Holliday, LSU- To call Holliday just a running back is a disservice to the young man. He’s a flex type player who can catch the ball as a receiver and is dangerous on returns. I don’t see Holliday as anything more than a late round pick for his return ability, but he’s one of the most dangerous players at this position. He has world class track speed, and it translates to the field as well. He’s too small to be worked much into a rotation in the backfield in the NFL, but he could have a Hester like impact returning kicks and punts. He’s fun to watch though, as he can break a long one any time he touches the ball.

Charles Scott, LSU- Scott is the every down bell cow back for the Tigers. He isn’t special, but he’s consistent. He’s a good between the tackles runner who won’t break away from anyone. That’s still valuable to NFL teams especially for short yardage situations.

Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech- I’m going to be paying a lot of attention to Dwyer this year. I haven’t been as impressed with him as others seem to be. But maybe I’m missing something, or just ignoring him for the large part due to my utter disdain of the triple option offense. Even if his numbers are inflated due to this, he has very good size and speed to match, which make him a candidate for the first or second rounds.

CJ Spiller, Clemson- I have no idea why Spiller came back as he was NFL ready last year. I just hope he stays healthy, as he’s a difference maker who I would take in the first two rounds without question. He has home run speed, can hit the corner consistently and run away from people, and he’s a great kick returner. I don’t think he has much else to prove to be honest, so here’s hoping he stays healthy as I think he will push Best and Dwyer for the top back in the draft.

Joe McKnight, USC- McKnight is the poor man’s Reggie Bush, in that he has a sick burst but he does not like to get hit. He also suffers from playing in a three man rotation with two other very talented backs. McKnight’s speed is what will have teams drafting him higher than he should go, but I don’t think he’s a first round prospect at this time.

CJ Gable, USC- I prefer Gable to McKnight as he’s more of an every down running back. It will be interesting to see which back steps up, and also to see if any of the always talented incoming Freshmen will take some carries away from the veterans.

DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma- Murray gets hurt by the primary shotgun formation the Sooners run, but he’s an incredibly talented running back. He may have the best hands of any of the draft eligible backs, and he has great quickness and speed as well. Durability is again a question with him as he is a bit slender and runs a bit too upright for my tastes. He has talent though, and with more and more teams in the NFL emphasizing the pass game with the running backs, his stock should move up this year if he can stay healthy.

Mikell Simpson, Virginia- Simpson may be the only bright spot on this subpar Virginia team. They’ve lost a lot of talent to the NFL over the past few years, and it’s going to show a lot this year. Simpson has shown flashes over the past two years I have watched him, but like Murray, he’s a bit slender in the legs and is prone to injury. This will affect his draft status, but I like his ability to play a compliment role and hit long runs when he gets his chances.

Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, Florida- Both backs are very similar, so that is why they are listed together. Usually you will see compliment backs like Holliday and Scott on LSU, but the Gators are all about speed. Both backs are a bit too small for my liking, but both have incredible speed to the outside and can break long runs. Staying healthy will be the key for these two as they are not built to handle a great deal of pounding. With Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy gone, I expect to see a lot more focus on the run game, so these two guys should get their chances to shine.

Quarterbacks

This is shaping up to be an excellent draft for depth and talent at the QB position. Headlined by who I think is the best player overall in college football in Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford, this should be one of the deepest positions come draft day with at least three QBs that should go in the first round.

Sam Bradford, Oklahoma- Bradford would have been the first overall pick in the draft had he come out last year (in my opinion). Apparently Bradford used the extra time in college to put another 15 pounds on and his arm is even stronger now. If he can showcase this, and maintain his top shelf accuracy, he’s a no brainer for the first pick (unless it’s a team picking first that already has a young QB in place). Bradford will be put to the test this year as 4/5ths of his starting OL graduated, and his top two WRs as well, so if he stands out once again it’s because he is just that good.

Colt McCoy, Texas- McCoy has all of the makings of a first round pick and eventual franchise QB, but he does have areas to improve upon. I’ll be looking right away to see if McCoy has advanced in looking off defenders, and to see if the extra year in the weight room has helped improve his arm strength. He should be right in the thick of the Heisman race, and he’s one of the best leaders at the position in all of college football. If he plays at the same level as last year, I still think he merits a first round grade. If he improves, then he’s probably pushed himself to the top half of the draft.

Jevan Sneed, Ole Miss- Sneed was a guy last year who I really liked, and now seems to be the hottest commodity for some of the ESPN draft guys. He has all of the physical attributes of a number one overall pick, and he has the gunslinger mentality of a Jay Cutler. Like Cutler in college though, he needs to work on his decision making. If he can show the ability to mature and know when to take a sack or throw a ball away, this will go along way in proving that he’s worthy to be considered with the likes of Bradford for the number one overall pick. He’s very close, and I will be watching intently to see if my read of him from last year was correct or not.

Riley Skinner, Wake Forest- I don’t think Skinner is a starting caliber quarterback, but he intrigues me as a quality backup. He is not consistent enough in his decision making, so that has to improve this year for him to be even considered near the back half of the draft. This Wake Forest team lost a lot of defensive talent, so Skinner is really going to have to come through this year if the Demon Deacons want to have a shot. In the ACC.

Max Hall, BYU- I’m not a big fan of Hall, as I think he’s nothing more than a Graham, Harrell/Chase Daniel type of system QB. He has the chance to prove me wrong though, as he has proven to be a solid leader and an accurate passer. I just think his height and throwing motion will be what pushes him down come draft day. Still, someone to watch especially in the first game of their season against powerhouse Oklahoma.

Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan- It’s funny how Kiper was saying at the draft last year that he would be a potential first rounder in this year’s draft, and now nothing. I don’t think he will ever be anything more than a back up or third stringer in the NFL. He’s a poor man’s Tim Tebow, and that’s not necessarily a good thing as I don’t consider Tim Tebow to be an NFL caliber QB. He will have hype; I just won’t be buying into it unless he really shows something dramatically different to what I saw the past two years.

Daryl Clark, Penn State- I don’t think Clark will be a NFL QB, but I think he will make a team in some capacity. Whether it’s to run the wildcat or play WR, he has physical ability and speed. This team is basically starting over with a whole new set of WRs, so Clark definitely has the chance to show talent evaluators if he’s the real deal or not. I expect his defense to be the real deal, which is why the Nittany Lions will be contenders.

Russell Wilson, NC State- Wilson was one of two true Freshman QBs who really impressed me last year. He has the arm and the feet to be very good, but he’s short. If he can play above his height, he will have some real notoriety heading into his first year of draft eligibility in 2011.

Jordan Jefferson, LSU- LSU will go as far as the Sophomore can lead them. I like him more than Wilson, as he has the physical attributes of an NFL caliber QB. He has some talent around him, and if he can shine this year, he’s probably one of the two favorites for the Heisman and the first pick in the draft in 2011.

Terrell Prior, Ohio State- Prior is an amazing athlete, but not a QB at this point in his career. He will only be a true Sophomore, so he has time, but he has to show some improvement in the passing game. There is no questioning his running ability, which is right up there as some of the best I have seen since Vick in college, but his arm, accuracy and decision making all need major work. He will prove it best in week two against a tough USC team.

Tim Tebow, Florida- Tebow might very well go down as the greatest college football player of all time. That does not make him an automatic NFL star though. There have been others like him in the past that just did not transition to the next level, like Charlie Ward of Florida State and Tommie Frazier or Eric Crouch of Nebraska. He will make a team in some capacity; I just don’t see it as a QB. There has been a lot of noise this off season about how the Gators have brought in a new QBs coach who was at Michigan when Tom Brady was there to help Tebow bring his throwing motion up to be more over the top (and not the unorthodox side arm motion he has had to date). I will be the first to say that I don’t think this will matter at all. His throwing motion is only part of the problem I have with him. His run first mentality is where it becomes an issue. The league is showing more and more now that the classic pocket passer who can make their reads and get the throw out on time is the one who will lead your team to a championship. So while I think he is a great player, and an even better human being, I just don’t think he will ever play anything more than a gimmick QB in the NFL. I’d love to see him move to safety or h-back, as he is tough and athletic enough to get on the field and contribute in the NFL.

Tim Hiller, Eastern Michigan- I have seen very little of Hillier, but he’s a player to take note of this season. He has the physical attributes of an NFL QB; it’s just his experience against lower competition that will hurt him. Keep an eye out for him and remember his name as I think he will be a hot commodity come draft time.

Todd Reesing, Kansas- Reesing is a system QB who is very successful and experienced, but far too short to ever be an NFL QB. I expect him to put up huge numbers this year, but I don’t expect him to be drafted.

Players to watch in 2009

Now that the 2009 college football season has gotten underway, here is a breakdown by position of the players I will be paying special attention to this year. There are several teams stacked with NFL grade talent as well, so I highly recommend watching as many games of the following teams as possible:

Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas, Penn State, and Oklahoma State

There are others I have probably missed, but those are the teams right off the top of my head that I know have several players who merit first day draft grades.

Friday, September 4, 2009

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

I’m a big fan of the last two drafts by the Jags. Granted, they massively underachieved expectations last year, but they are building thing from the foundation up. Last year their first two picks were spent on brining in impact pass rushers, and this year it was spent on bringing in bookend pass blockers. This OL was not good last year, so I expect Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton to both fight for playing time right away. I think this is a very good combination of tackles as well, seeing as Monroe is a prototypical LT and Britton fits very well on the right side in the mold of a young John Tait. I cannot stress enough the importance of the OL and DL in continued success for a team, and these last two drafts have set the Jags up nicely to compete for some time now. The rest of the draft was a mixed bag though. Terrance Knighton out of Temple is a good run stuffing DT, which this defense needed, but I think he would have been available much later than the third. Same goes for William and Mary CB Derek Cox. Yes, it was a position of need for this team, but this seemed like a reach to me. Jacksonville got back on track by picking up Mike Thomas in the 4th. I loved Thomas tenacity and route running skills. Yes, he’s undersized and will probably have to play strictly in the slot due to this, but he can be a prolific slot receiver in the NFL. Plus he has the ability to return punts and kicks. With so many recent misses at the WR position via the draft for this team, I actually think they finally hit on one. Tiquan Underwood was underrated as a WR as well, and was definitely worth a shot in the 7th. My only concern is he is a lot like Thomas, so I only see the one making the team. Rashad Jennings of Liberty slipped a lot further than I thought. He was one of the very few impressive big backs in the draft, so I thought someone would have taken him for short yardage purposes sooner than the 7th. But their loss is Jacksonville’s gain and I think he will make the team. I don’t think he will ever be more than a goal line and short yardage back though, as his talent as a runner is not as impressive as his physical numbers would indicate. Overall, not a bad draft for the Jag. I would full expect them to now work hard in the next draft on WR or CB.

Indianapolis Colts

With the love fest I gave to the AFC East front office guys, I need to also pay my respects to one of the long time great personnel men in Bill Polian. He has kept the Colts in the playoffs for almost an entire decade, all the while being hamstrung by the overwhelming cap space eaten up by all of the talent on this offense. The Colts always do a great job of filling needs via the draft, developing the player, then having a back up plan once that player gets to a point where his contract is up and they cannot afford him anymore. I think even I was surprised to see the Colts take a running back in the first round, but Donald Brown in a fantastic fit for this offense. He is a great one cut runner, which is critical in a zone blocking run offense, and he has very good hands catching the ball out of the backfield. This pick screams value over need, which I cannot argue with. New head coach Jim Caldwell, even though he was previously the defensive coordinator, wants to change the defensive line around and get a bit bigger up the middle. USC DT Fili Moala is a very good undertackle prospect, and worthy of the second round pick. Fourth rounder Terrance Taylor of Michigan is the beefy run stopper that this defense has needed, and he should see a good amount of playing time on running downs. The Colts also picked a QB who I thought looked great last year, and struggled in his senior year in Purdue’s Curtis Painter. If Indy can pull out the junior year Painter, I think the Colts may have found the long term back up and potential replacement for Manning once he decides to hang it up. It’s a great pick for a 6th rounder.

Tennessee Titans

Last year’s draft surprised me last year, as Tennessee made some slight reaches. Most thought the Titans were stupid for getting yet another running back in the first round in Chris Johnson, but he proved all of the ‘experts’ wrong. The Titans have never been known for their strength at the WR position, and they have not done much to really address this. That changed this year with first round pick Kenny Britt of Rutgers. I don’t think Britt will contribute right away as he needs to refine his route running and catching with his hands. What he can do is provide a physical presence for blocking in the run game, and he can jump so I expect a lot of red zone jump balls to be thrown his way. Auburn DT Sen’Derrick Marks will fit right into the defensive tackle rotation and provides them with a good interior pass rush. Getting Jared Cook in the third round was straight up larceny. I was one of the few who weren’t as high on Cook due to the fact that he is really only a pass catcher at this point in his career. Having said that though, he was easily the best pass catching TE in the entire draft and should have gone in the second round. The Titans love to utilize the TE, so I expect Cook to get into the line up and see some solid playing time. Fellow third rounder Ryan Mouton of Hawaii is a very physical corner, which is exactly the type of player this defense requires. In what I felt was their best pick, the Titans got one of my absolute favorite LBs in Southern Miss’s Gerald McRath. McRath played ILB in college, but I think he’s versatile and fast enough to play any of the three LB positions. I think that he will eventually be a top end starting LB within the next three years. The fact that Javon Ringer fell to the 5th round was a bit of a surprise, but the bigger surprise is that Tennessee picked him. They already have three running backs that were 3rd round picks or above (Johnson, LenDale White, and Chris Henry), so I have no idea why they went for Ringer. I really like Ringer, even though I understand team’s hesitancy in picking him due to the heavy amount of carries and wear his legs took in college. Maybe this signals the end for White, who will be a free agent after this season. I have to say I was pleasantly surprised with the Titans draft. They are a well coached team, and they have added some essential pieces in this draft to stay relevant for the next few years.

Houston Texans

The Texans seem to be the chic pick for the past two years as the team that will surprise. I don’t think you can call them a surprise anymore. The Texans have done a great job in the draft over the past 4-5 years, and I think they will start to really push to the front of the line in the NFC South. Mario Williams is a bona fide superstar at DE, and teams game plan against him. The hard part of that is that the Texans have not had a presence on the other side of Williams to make teams pay for doubling him up. Their first two picks in the draft will make teams pay for running away from Williams. Brian Cushing is a great, well rounded SLB. He can rush the passer, he can drop into coverage, and he attacks the line to set the edge against the run. Playing next to a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in Demeco Ryans will only make Cushing that much more effective. The versatile DE/TE/OLB Connor Barwin of Cincinnati was a great value pick in the second round, and he can provide the companion pass rush to Williams that I think will help him push for defensive player of the year honors. Barwin will see a lot of single team blocks, but he’s also going to need some coaching on proper technique seeing as he’s only played DE for one season. Antoine Caldwell was an All American OC at Alabama, and he’s the tough inside run blocking presence this OL is still lacking. I think Caldwell will start right away. I was surprised to see the Texans go with back to back TE’s, but both are different types of players. Anthony Hill of NC State is a blocking TE who will compliment Pro Bowl TE Owen Daniels. James Casey of Rice is a lot like Daniels and I could see both on the field at the same time to help exploit matchups. Rice is versatile and is a good enough athlete to play an H-back role, a slot receiver role, and a traditional inline TE role as well. He was an unreal value in the 5th. This is a draft class that I see paying big dividends right away for Houston, and I expect them to take the next step this season and start to push for a playoff spot.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

AFC East

New England Patriots

As much as I am not a big fan of the way Bill Belichick purports himself at times, I have to respect and admire his talent evaluation skills. He’s one of the few head coaches who really understands and appreciates the draft process. He has a great grasp of the value of where he is picking and he knows exactly what type of player fits into his mold on offense and defense. In fact, I think this year’s draft proves to me that it was always Belichick that made the main calls in the past years drafts (and not former player personnel chief Scott Pioli, who is now GM for the Chiefs). The Patriots had some very specific needs, and I think they filled a few of them with players who might have a shot immediately. Oregon SS Patrick Chung has been a favorite of mine for the past two years, and I think he’s the perfect fit into this defense. He brings a Rodney Harrison like toughness in the run game, he’s a fierce hitter that you have to respect if you are a wide receiver going over the middle, and he’s fluid enough to turn and run in deep coverage. When the dust of the preseason settles, I think Chung will be the starting SS for this team. I was surprised to see New England also go after Boston College NT Ron Brace in the early second, but after seeing the off season acrimony in the Vince Wilfork contract extension negotiations, it makes perfect sense. True 3-4 NTs are extremely difficult to find, especially ones who can make a difference. It is the key component to running a successful 3-4 defense. Brace at the very worst gives them someone to rotate in with Wilfork to keep them both fresh, and best he gives them someone they can throw in as his long term replacement should they get sick of his demands and trade him or watch him walk in free agency. With the amount of deals the Patriots pull off, and the number of teams wanting to move to 3-4 defenses, I could see Belichick getting a decent first round pick and possibly more in return for Wilfork. At least that’s an option with Brace in the fold. Darius Butler slid a lot further than I thought he would, but he went to the team that I thought would fit his skills best. He’s a great all around corner, but he reminds me of Ty Law. He’s very physical, he’s a very good cover corner, and he’s great in the run game. There is a lot of youth at CB on this Patriots team, so Butler has the physical tools to be right there and earn a starting job despite his lack of experience. Houston RT Sebastian Vollmer was a bit of a surprise as a second round pick, but I really liked his upside. He’s still learning the nuances of playing offensive line as he’s fairly new to competitive football (he’s originally from Germany), so he’s not going to be rushed into playing time. If Vollmer can pick things up quickly though, he has the physical ability to be a very good right tackle in the NFL. Both Brandon Tate and Tyrone McKenzie were almost red shirt draft picks. Both have knee injuries and will likely not play this year, but both had physical talents that would have warranted a higher draft grade than the third round they were chosen in. New England is obviously a very talented team, so they can afford this luxury and take advantage of the long term depth and benefit they will get once these players are healthy next year. Penn State offensive tackle Rich Ohrnberger is probably a step too slow to play tackle, but the Patriots like to pull their guards a lot and he has the short area quickness to be very good at this (so I envision he will be played there). I also liked the 7th round selection of Georgia Tech DT Darryl Richard. He’s a good run defender and can hold blockers up at the line of scrimmage as a DE in this defense. He’s not a dependable starter, but I could see him making this team as a first line back up. Overall this was a very impressive draft, and that does not even take into account that with the maneuvering on draft day this year, the Patriots have set themselves up to reap massive benefits in the 2010 NFL draft (which as I have said already, is LOADED with talent).

Miami Dolphins

If I’m on the Belichick train, then I need to pay respect to who was the original conductor and that’s Bill Parcells. Yes, he’s not technically the GM, but do not believe for one second that the decisions aren’t made without his advice. No matter where Parcells has gone, he has always left a team loaded with depth and talent. It’s surprising that the turn around was so quick in Miami though. It’s started with their OL last year, and this year was focusing on the secondary. First round CB Vontae Davis of IL could potentially be the best corner to come out of this draft. The only thing Davis needs is good coaching and consistency. He’ll get that in the NFL, and with a demanding head coach in Tony Sparano, he’ll have to be consistent if he wants to start. Backing this up with Utah CB Sean Smith not only provides insurance should Davis not step up right away; it also makes a former weakness a strength. Smith is exactly the type of player Parcells covets so I am not surprised at all that he picked him, I’m just surprised that he fell all the way to the second round. If Smith has trouble fitting at corner, he is versatile enough to play safety as well. The head scratcher was picking Pat White in the second round. I get that they love to run the wildcat, but I just think that getting a QB who you want to run this for you that early is a waste. White would have been there from round three onward, and I just don’t see him ever being anything more than a mid level backup at best. Wide receivers Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline are very different receivers, but I think both will have a chance at getting a decent amount of playing time. This is a weak position, and the Dolphins opted out of chasing free agents, so they could use the depth. Turner is a tall, physical, receiver who Parcells always has on his team. He’s got work to do before he can be considered a consistent starter, but he should prove useful in the red zone at least. Hartline made a mistake coming out early, but I think he found a good spot here. He’s a good slot receiver, and he won’t be asked to do too much right away. I see him being a poor man’s Wes Welker in time. Safety Chris Clemons in the fifth was a good value as well, although I don’t expect that he will fight for a starting job. Overall, this wasn’t as impactful of a draft as last year’s was, but it’s another step in the right direction.

New York Jets

Umm, this is short. Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Matt Slauson. Yep, that’s it! I can’t fault the Jets for being aggressive and going after Sanchez, as he has the potential to be a very solid starting QB. He doesn’t have a great team of wideouts to throw to, but they are adequate enough and the running game and solid TE (Dustin Keller) are enough to give him a chance. Shonn Greene is a great compliment back to this already very talented backfield. Although Thomas Jones had an outstanding year last season, he’s hitting that dreaded wall that all 30+ year old RBs get to. It’s just a matter of time before time catches up with his legs, and it’s time to go. Greene gives the Jets the straight line battering ram type of running back that will compliment scat back Leon Washington very well. Grabbing Matt Slauson in the 6th was a great pick up, as he can definitely be a solid back up and potentially push for playing time. It’s obviously light on quantity, but this was about as good as the quality could get for where the picks were.

Buffalo Bills

I’m a bit confused by the Bills draft. Not only did they trade away a franchise left tackle, which is something you should NEVER get rid of by the way, but they did not replace him at all. It’s a shame as well seeing as there were solid players available to fit this need as well. The Bills have talent, but I’m not sure if they will take that next step because of this. Aaron Maybin is a high risk high reward player, and I just don’t think he was worth the 11th overall pick. Yes, he has great first step quickness, but I just don’t think speed alone is going to make him a double digit sack guy in the NFL. To me, this may have been as bad of a reach as Heyward-Bey at #7. Eric Wood is versatile enough to play center and guard, but I just wasn’t as high on him as everyone else seemed to be. Once again, a tackle would have been the better value here. Jairus Byrd in the second round was a very solid pick though. He’s a tenacious cover corner, and he has some of the best ball skills of any defense back that was in this draft. Plus Byrd’s dad is the CB coach for the Bears, so he’s got great technique. He’s able to play safety as well, so I see Byrd making it on the field come hell or high water. Andy Levitre can’t play tackle, so he’ll play guard in the NFL, and he’ll get pushed around if he has to start right away. Another questionable pick, but the good news starts from here. The Bills hit on some very underrated players in the 4th round onward. Getting Shawn Nelson in the 4th was an absolute steal and I think he will be the starting TE come opening day. He’s a dangerous offensive weapon, and in a few years, we may be talking about him being one of the better players at his position in the AFC. Nic Harris will make the transition to WLB in the NFL, and I think he has a good chance to be very successful at this position as well. Cary Harris has questionable long speed, but he’s a tough corner and I could see him making this roster. Ellis Lankster is even tougher, and I think he’s the kind of guy you have to fight to keep off the field.