This will be a very short section, as this is easily the weakest position in all of the draft. As you may recall, I said the same thing last year about this position group, and I think this is testament to the spread offense taking hold at the college level. The TE position just isn’t as important in the spread, unless you are a blocker or more of an H-Back type. So either way, it’s nothing an NFL team is going to be looking at early in the draft. There are a few players with some talent, but I just don’t see any of them being considered before the late second round.
Kyle Rudolph of Notre Dame surprised me when he declared early, considering he had surgery on a partially torn hamstring this season. It makes sense to take advantage of a weak draft class, but having seen how hamstring surgery can really hurt a player’s career (i.e. Tommie Harris); I would be very leery of spending a first or second round pick on him. He’s definitely the most complete TE of these prospects as he can block, has decent size, and good speed. If his hamstring is fine and he shows well at the combine and private workouts, I could see him locking up a second round grade for certain.
Weslye Saunders of South Carolina missed the entire season after several violations of team rules. You have to REALLY mess up for Steve Spurrier to kick you off his team as well, so I would be very careful when handing out a six to seven figure contract on a young man who is obviously not mature enough to handle this yet. But Saunders will get drafted because of his natural athletic gifts. For Bears fans, you will understand when I say he’s Kellen Davis but a better receiving threat. For those that aren’t Bears fans, he basically a power forward playing football. He needs work, and hopefully he spent his time off getting in the best shape of his life and working on blocking technique. He has the size and natural athleticism you want in an inline TE though, so if he has truly learned his lesson, he could be a steal.
The remaining TE’s worth mentioning are all H-Back types who just aren’t big enough to hold up as an inline TE on the line of scrimmage, so they will need to go to the right offense where they will be used off the line in varying formations.
Lance Kendricks of Wisconsin is a guy I really like, but he has had some durability issues. He’s got a very good feel for zone coverages though and knows how to find the soft spots, sit down, and make the catch. He’s a good offensive weapon, if he can stay healthy.
DJ Williams of Arkansas is almost identical to Kendricks except he’s stayed healthy. He’s even smaller than Kendricks though, so he’s almost like a big WR more so than a true TE or HBack. He can catch the ball well though, and in some games this year he reminded me of Aaron Hernandez as he did an excellent job of selling the TE screen.
Preston Dial of Alabama is actually a guy I would love to have on my team. He’s not big enough to play inline, but he actually looks pretty good playing FB and slipping out into coverage to make plays in the passing game. He has very good hands, and was Greg McElroy’s security blanket this season on third and short. He’s one of those solid late round picks who will play special teams and find a way to contribute in various formations for a creative offensive coordinator.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Wide Receiver
I expected this to be far and away the deepest position as far as star power, but it lost some luster with Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd deciding to return to school. Having said that though, this is still a very deep position group with some absolute top-notch talent, and there is good enough depth as well. It’s also a good draft for teams looking at different types of receivers as you have some very good perimeter guys with great size/speed and smaller guys who are quick and will do well in the slot.
AJ Green is a super star WR and could possibly be the top overall pick in the draft with Luck no longer an option. I would not disagree with this either, as he’s the most NFL ready WR I have seen since Calvin Johnson (and I would argue he’s a better route runner than Johnson at the same point in their career). Green is the rare talent that is very good in all phases of the game, and his suspension earlier this year doesn’t bother me at all. His size, speed, and awareness are an offensive coordinator’s dream.
Julio Jones is not far behind Green either, and is also a prospect that I think is a super star in the making. Some ‘experts’ have said he has inconsistent hands, but the guy played more than one game with a broken hand and still managed to catch passes and make an impact. They just don’t make humans his size and his speed often, and those are elements you can’t teach. I love his willingness and ability to block as well. I don’t see any way he makes it out of the top ten either.
Jonathan Baldwin took a step back this year as far as production from the previous two years, but I feel this was more due to having an inexperienced QB throwing him the ball. I stand by what I said lat year about Baldwin in that I think in five years from now, we may end up saying he was the best player of these bug three. But Baldwin needs some time and refinement on his route running, so he may not make a huge impact right away. Those reasons may cause him to slip low enough for a team at the back end of the first round looking for a big game breaker (come on Angelo, if he’s there you take him!).
Torrey Smith came on strong this year and statistically had the biggest year of all of the top prospects. He’s not as big and strong as the previous three, but he seems to always find a way to get past coverage and make big plays. I think he’s the rawest of these prospects, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slip to the second round, but he is a solid receiving prospect that should merit first round consideration.
Other than these big name prospects, there are two guys who I think you should pay attention to in the second round onward. I’m highlighting these guys as I am looking at this from a Bears fan’s perspective, as I believe the Bears are lacking that big, physical playmaker at this position to draw coverage away from the open-field guys they have in Knox and Hester.
Tori Gurley of South Carolina came out early, and I suspect it has something to do with future super star Alshon Jeffery taking away the balls he would have gotten. I really like Gurley though as he is a big guy, with good game speed, and he can jump as well. He needs some good NFL style coaching, but he could be had in the third or fourth rounds, which is where the Bears would be looking at if they decide to attack the OL and CB position early.
Tandon Doss of Indiana is a guy I really liked last year, and I was also surprised he came out early. In this deep of a draft class, it was probably a mistake, but it’s a mistake some GM is glad he made as he will be a steal. He’s like Gurley in that he has very good size and leaping ability. He can overpower corners and outrun safeties, and he is really only starting to reach his potential since he’s young.
AJ Green is a super star WR and could possibly be the top overall pick in the draft with Luck no longer an option. I would not disagree with this either, as he’s the most NFL ready WR I have seen since Calvin Johnson (and I would argue he’s a better route runner than Johnson at the same point in their career). Green is the rare talent that is very good in all phases of the game, and his suspension earlier this year doesn’t bother me at all. His size, speed, and awareness are an offensive coordinator’s dream.
Julio Jones is not far behind Green either, and is also a prospect that I think is a super star in the making. Some ‘experts’ have said he has inconsistent hands, but the guy played more than one game with a broken hand and still managed to catch passes and make an impact. They just don’t make humans his size and his speed often, and those are elements you can’t teach. I love his willingness and ability to block as well. I don’t see any way he makes it out of the top ten either.
Jonathan Baldwin took a step back this year as far as production from the previous two years, but I feel this was more due to having an inexperienced QB throwing him the ball. I stand by what I said lat year about Baldwin in that I think in five years from now, we may end up saying he was the best player of these bug three. But Baldwin needs some time and refinement on his route running, so he may not make a huge impact right away. Those reasons may cause him to slip low enough for a team at the back end of the first round looking for a big game breaker (come on Angelo, if he’s there you take him!).
Torrey Smith came on strong this year and statistically had the biggest year of all of the top prospects. He’s not as big and strong as the previous three, but he seems to always find a way to get past coverage and make big plays. I think he’s the rawest of these prospects, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slip to the second round, but he is a solid receiving prospect that should merit first round consideration.
Other than these big name prospects, there are two guys who I think you should pay attention to in the second round onward. I’m highlighting these guys as I am looking at this from a Bears fan’s perspective, as I believe the Bears are lacking that big, physical playmaker at this position to draw coverage away from the open-field guys they have in Knox and Hester.
Tori Gurley of South Carolina came out early, and I suspect it has something to do with future super star Alshon Jeffery taking away the balls he would have gotten. I really like Gurley though as he is a big guy, with good game speed, and he can jump as well. He needs some good NFL style coaching, but he could be had in the third or fourth rounds, which is where the Bears would be looking at if they decide to attack the OL and CB position early.
Tandon Doss of Indiana is a guy I really liked last year, and I was also surprised he came out early. In this deep of a draft class, it was probably a mistake, but it’s a mistake some GM is glad he made as he will be a steal. He’s like Gurley in that he has very good size and leaping ability. He can overpower corners and outrun safeties, and he is really only starting to reach his potential since he’s young.
Quarterback
This position lost all of its glitz and glamour when Andrew Luck went back to Stanford. I’m not quite as in love with him as Trent Dilfer (who I will state unequivocally that I cannot stand), who said he was the best QB prospect of the last 10-20 years, but I do like him enough to say he was a lock for the first overall pick.
Without Luck, you were left with what this class has to offer, nothing but question marks.
Blaine Gabbert is the best of the group in my opinion, but he’s not ready to start at the next level at all. I think this comment resonates for almost all of the prospects being looked at in the first three rounds.
Jake Locker has potential, but I think he needs the right offense and time to develop.
Cam Newton will never be a top level QB in my eyes. At a minimum, he’s going to need a few years to really develop into an NFL QB after playing in a gimmick offense in college.
Ryan Mallet is a wooden cigar Indian (thanks for that one Tom) with a cannon for an arm that he can’t get good control over. I’ve also heard rumors of character concerns, and I would not doubt this considering he melted down more than once this season in critical games.
Christian Ponder is like Luck in that he needs to go to the right offense, but with time could be a starter.
To me, all of these guys aren’t worth taking in the first half of the first round. With all of the question marks, I’d rather go with a higher rated player at a different position. My personal philosophy is that the QB is the most important position on the field, so if you spend a first round pick on one, you better be certain they will be your man for the next five to ten years. I don’t feel that strongly about any of these guys this year though.
What makes this even more of an issue is that several teams really need a franchise QB, and will take some of these players in the first round. If they don’t plan on starting a bridge veteran while this rookie develops, they will be making a big mistake. I don’t see any of these prospects being better off by starting now for a poor team in order to get experience. Teams in the back half of the first, like Seattle, those are the teams who I think would benefit from taking these prospects as they can afford to let them sit, learn, and develop. Look no further than America’s Sweetheart Aaron Rodgers for proof of the theory I am espousing here (although I had Rodgers over Smith in that draft!).
Without Luck, you were left with what this class has to offer, nothing but question marks.
Blaine Gabbert is the best of the group in my opinion, but he’s not ready to start at the next level at all. I think this comment resonates for almost all of the prospects being looked at in the first three rounds.
Jake Locker has potential, but I think he needs the right offense and time to develop.
Cam Newton will never be a top level QB in my eyes. At a minimum, he’s going to need a few years to really develop into an NFL QB after playing in a gimmick offense in college.
Ryan Mallet is a wooden cigar Indian (thanks for that one Tom) with a cannon for an arm that he can’t get good control over. I’ve also heard rumors of character concerns, and I would not doubt this considering he melted down more than once this season in critical games.
Christian Ponder is like Luck in that he needs to go to the right offense, but with time could be a starter.
To me, all of these guys aren’t worth taking in the first half of the first round. With all of the question marks, I’d rather go with a higher rated player at a different position. My personal philosophy is that the QB is the most important position on the field, so if you spend a first round pick on one, you better be certain they will be your man for the next five to ten years. I don’t feel that strongly about any of these guys this year though.
What makes this even more of an issue is that several teams really need a franchise QB, and will take some of these players in the first round. If they don’t plan on starting a bridge veteran while this rookie develops, they will be making a big mistake. I don’t see any of these prospects being better off by starting now for a poor team in order to get experience. Teams in the back half of the first, like Seattle, those are the teams who I think would benefit from taking these prospects as they can afford to let them sit, learn, and develop. Look no further than America’s Sweetheart Aaron Rodgers for proof of the theory I am espousing here (although I had Rodgers over Smith in that draft!).
Positional strengths and weaknesses
It’s interesting to see that college footballs trends over the past three to five years are starting to influence the trends on NFL prospects more so than what I have seen five to ten years ago. The uptake of the spread and spread option offenses have forced defenses to find athletic players and putting them in as DBs to help stop the multiple WR sets. So where as those athletic players may have been RBs or WRs in the past, they are now leading to deeper draft classes for the secondary. It also means that DL can tend to suffer, especially the DE position. It is hard to find a real 4-3 DE prospect anymore, although this year there are at least two elite level players at that position (Mario Williams is the last real super-star 4-3 DE that comes to mind). The issue I have with this though is that it makes it very hard to read certain positional players in regards to how they will translate to the pro game.
Each subsequent post will breakdown what I think of each positional group, with DL and OL broken down interior (OG/OC and DT) and exterior players (OT and DE/rush OLB)
Each subsequent post will breakdown what I think of each positional group, with DL and OL broken down interior (OG/OC and DT) and exterior players (OT and DE/rush OLB)
The state of the NFL
I’ve had a few of you email me this year about some of the bigger names in the draft and what I thought of their potential NFL impact. I’ve also gotten the obligatory ‘what should the bears do other than OL?’ I’ll address those in my next posts, but first I want to touch on how the labor unrest in the NFL will affect this Draft season.
The first thing to say is that this draft will be entirely different than any other we have seen as free agency and player trades will not be in effect until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed, or the first day of the new football year starts (which is March). This may not seem like a big deal, but this really does hamper some teams who may fill needs with high-profile free agents and then draft for best player available in the draft (like the Bears). It also means that draft picks can only be traded for other draft picks, and not for players. So while player trades for draft picks are not something that happens often each year, it does happen and now prevents teams from having one other method of making something happen on draft day. I assume what we will see are teams making ‘hand-shake’ trades of a player for a pick, with the team trading the player telling the other team who they want them to pick in that draft position. One thing you can count on in the NFL is that teams will be creative and find ways around the rules.
I also think that a rookie wage scale will absolutely be in place for this draft class. So you may find teams more willing to take a player who might not give you the best positional value for the pick. For example, the past few years the players being drafted in the top five are often times one of the highest paid at that position once their contract is signed. So it made some teams shy away from taking say an Eric Berry last year as those teams may not want to make him the highest paid Safety in the league before he steps on the field by taking him with the second overall pick. This will slot salaries like the NBA does, so I believe teams will be more willing to just take the best player available to fit their need. Now, this may not have any impact at all and I’m reading too far into this, but I do think this is the right thing to do. Make rookie contracts shorter, say two to four years, and control how much they can make. Once they have proven they are worth it, then let them get paid appropriately where they fit in the grand scheme of the NFL for their position. I think teams like the Rams and Lions who drafted near the top several years in a row will be hamstrung by the amount of salary cap space they have dedicated to only a few players. And should one of those players bust, you’ve set that franchise back a year or two in their development.
I hope something gets done though as you all must really love football if you are reading this blog, and like me, you hope we have something to watch next season. I don’t see how something doesn’t get done in time, as deadlines have a way of making things happen quickly, and the amount of money to be had or lost is astronomical. Players and owners know that, and that’s what makes me certain something gets done. I just don’t think it will be before the Draft occurs.
The first thing to say is that this draft will be entirely different than any other we have seen as free agency and player trades will not be in effect until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed, or the first day of the new football year starts (which is March). This may not seem like a big deal, but this really does hamper some teams who may fill needs with high-profile free agents and then draft for best player available in the draft (like the Bears). It also means that draft picks can only be traded for other draft picks, and not for players. So while player trades for draft picks are not something that happens often each year, it does happen and now prevents teams from having one other method of making something happen on draft day. I assume what we will see are teams making ‘hand-shake’ trades of a player for a pick, with the team trading the player telling the other team who they want them to pick in that draft position. One thing you can count on in the NFL is that teams will be creative and find ways around the rules.
I also think that a rookie wage scale will absolutely be in place for this draft class. So you may find teams more willing to take a player who might not give you the best positional value for the pick. For example, the past few years the players being drafted in the top five are often times one of the highest paid at that position once their contract is signed. So it made some teams shy away from taking say an Eric Berry last year as those teams may not want to make him the highest paid Safety in the league before he steps on the field by taking him with the second overall pick. This will slot salaries like the NBA does, so I believe teams will be more willing to just take the best player available to fit their need. Now, this may not have any impact at all and I’m reading too far into this, but I do think this is the right thing to do. Make rookie contracts shorter, say two to four years, and control how much they can make. Once they have proven they are worth it, then let them get paid appropriately where they fit in the grand scheme of the NFL for their position. I think teams like the Rams and Lions who drafted near the top several years in a row will be hamstrung by the amount of salary cap space they have dedicated to only a few players. And should one of those players bust, you’ve set that franchise back a year or two in their development.
I hope something gets done though as you all must really love football if you are reading this blog, and like me, you hope we have something to watch next season. I don’t see how something doesn’t get done in time, as deadlines have a way of making things happen quickly, and the amount of money to be had or lost is astronomical. Players and owners know that, and that’s what makes me certain something gets done. I just don’t think it will be before the Draft occurs.
The good news…
This is only a one year hiatus from full on coverage! By the time the 2011 college football season rolls around, my daughter will hopefully be old enough to not only play on her own without my direct interaction but to also get me beer from the fridge while Daddy watches yet another football game.
So hang in there and keep coming back from time to time as you never know what you will see.
So hang in there and keep coming back from time to time as you never know what you will see.
The bad news…
I have come to the unfortunate realization that I am terrible with time estimates, especially now having a newborn at home.
So this season will be ‘Diesel Draft Analysis Light’. I won’t be posting the detailed player breakdowns I had the past two years as I just simply don’t have the time before the draft will be upon us. I probably won’t be breaking down the Senior Bowl on CoverItLive either for the same reason.
What I will do though is provide random posts here and there on some of my general thoughts of this year on some of the more talked about prospects (or the prospects that aren’t being talked about but I think should be), and I will also still do a few mock drafts before Draft Weekend is upon us.
I will be up on CoverItLive for all three days of the draft though, so I hope all of my regular readers will join like last year and we will have a blast once again.
What I’d also like to do is answer any questions you may have, as a nice way to give back since I won’t be doing the full analysis of all players. So feel free to drop a comment in the comments section below this post with any questions on teams or players you want me to post about, and I will do my best to keep up and write any thoughts I have from the notes I have collated through this college football season. It can even be about your favorite team, like what do I feel the Houston Texans need to address this year.
So this season will be ‘Diesel Draft Analysis Light’. I won’t be posting the detailed player breakdowns I had the past two years as I just simply don’t have the time before the draft will be upon us. I probably won’t be breaking down the Senior Bowl on CoverItLive either for the same reason.
What I will do though is provide random posts here and there on some of my general thoughts of this year on some of the more talked about prospects (or the prospects that aren’t being talked about but I think should be), and I will also still do a few mock drafts before Draft Weekend is upon us.
I will be up on CoverItLive for all three days of the draft though, so I hope all of my regular readers will join like last year and we will have a blast once again.
What I’d also like to do is answer any questions you may have, as a nice way to give back since I won’t be doing the full analysis of all players. So feel free to drop a comment in the comments section below this post with any questions on teams or players you want me to post about, and I will do my best to keep up and write any thoughts I have from the notes I have collated through this college football season. It can even be about your favorite team, like what do I feel the Houston Texans need to address this year.
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