Mock Draft 1.0- First Round

I’m going to forgo specific combine coverage since I’m so far behind. So here’s my first full mock draft with the first two rounds. I’ll keep updating this as more happens toward draft day itself. This current version accounts for all free agent signings and trades. In addition, for this version I will be doing this as I think the draft will fall out. In the next version, I may slant this more toward what I would specifically do if I was running each team. Enjoy version 1.0!

1. Detroit Lions- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
I would have put Aaron Curry here prior to yesterday’s trade for Julian Peterson. I’m still not a big fan of Stafford, but I would get why they would take him here. Personally I put a contract number in front of Jason Smith, Curry, Stafford, and maybe even Raji. Whoever agrees to that number is the number one draft pick as all would fill a need. I don’t agree with the likes of Mel Kiper Jr who is saying you have to go with the QB even if he’s not the best overall player, but then in the next hand says you don’t force a pick based on need. If you don’t force a pick based on need, then you don’t force a pick based on ‘common draft history’. No further evidence is needed than Reggie Bush. Everyone panned the Texans for drafting Mario Williams first, but look who’s laughing now. That’s why I think Curry should be the pick as he’s the best overall player in this draft.

2. St. Louis Rams- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
After releasing Orlando Pace, I think it can’t be more evident that the Rams intend on taking an OL with this pick. Whether it’s Smith or Eugene Monroe, I don’t see how they go elsewhere with the second overall pick. Smith distanced himself from the other prospects in my eyes with a solid combine. He proved to be stronger in the upper body than the others, and has good arm length. I still question his run blocking, but he’s an instant LT. If the Lions do end up going the safe route and take Smith, it may lead to the Rams going with Curry. It wouldn’t be their biggest need, but it’s not worth forcing a pick on the second best player at a position when a better overall player is still there.

3. Kansas City Chiefs- Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
I think the Chiefs have to be hoping and praying the draft falls this way. Curry is my favorite player in this draft and is as safe of a pick as you can get. He’s versatile enough to play in any defensive alignment, and if KC does switch to a 3-4, they need all the help they can get. If Curry is gone then I think the pick comes down to Raji, Crabtree, or Monroe.

4. Seattle Seahawks- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
This pick has really changed based on the free agent acquisition of TJ Houshmandzadeh, DT Colin Cole, and the trade for Corey Redding. I could still see Crabtree here as Housh is not young and they need depth at the position, but I think the Seahawks grab Walter Jones heir apparent in Monroe. He could play RT to begin with, and potentially even guard if needed. Then when Jones retires (which may be after this year), he takes over as the long term solution at LT. Raji would fit nicely here, but they have done enough now to address the DL. If the picks before this shake out differently, and Stafford slips somehow, I could see the Seahawks grabbing him up to eventually replace Hasselbeck. I could see this as a good fit as his arm strength would fit well in the cold and windy Northwest.

5. Cleveland Browns- Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
I struggle to fit the right pick in here. Orakpo is the best prospect as a rush linebacker this year, but good potential prospects would be available for the Browns in the second round as well. It’s definitely the biggest need for the Browns as they failed to reach 20 sacks as an entire team last year. Crabtree is the best value left on the board right now, but the questions surrounding his foot injury and no recorded 40 time is enough to push him a bit further down. Orakpo can come right in and contribute as a difference maker in the pass rush game. He’ll need some work moving backwards in pass coverage, but he’s a good enough athlete to learn quickly. If the rift between Pro Bowl NT Shaun Rogers and new coach Eric Mangini continues, I could see Raji being the pick here and Rogers being traded for an early second round pick.

6. Cincinnati Bengals- BJ Raji, DT, Boston College
I think this is the easiest pick to call if Raji falls. Marvin Lewis and his staff got to see Raji up close and personal as the coaches of the North squad at the Senior Bowl, and Raji really shined there. Raji is an instant inside presence that will upgrade this poor defense in the run and pass game. Some may argue that an outside pass rushing presence is what this defense needs more, but I will argue back that a solid inside presence instantly upgrades your outside pass rush. OT is a big need as well, but at this point it’s a bit of a reach for the third best OT overall instead of the best DT in the draft.

7. Oakland Raiders- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
I have to think Al Davis is hoping and praying that the draft shakes out this way. Yes, I know, Crabtree is not the typical blazing speed type of receiver that Al Davis loves but he’s obviously the best pass catcher in this draft. After signing former Jaguar LT Kahlif Barnes, OL is not as big of a need for the Raiders. Jamarcus Russell needs more pass catching options surrounding him in order to continue development, and Crabtree is as good as it gets.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
I personally don’t think Maclin is worth this high of a pick, but it fits the MO of the Jags. They need a speedy outside presence that can stretch the field in the pass game and Maclin fits that well. A lot of mock drafts I have seen recently have the Jags grabbing Mark Sanchez, but I just don’t see that happening. While I like Sanchez a lot, the Jags already have an experienced starting QB in David Gerrard. Gerrard might not be the best QB in the NFL, but he’s proved good enough to take this team to the playoffs. What the Jags need to do more than anything is provide better pass protection for him and surround him with offensive weapons like Maclin. With the free agent acquisition of Tra Thomas at LT, I think it gives the Jags the luxury of going with the offensive playmaker here. Even if Maclin isn’t an immediate true game breaker as a receiver, he will be good enough to help this team and can change games in the return phase.

9. Green Bay Packers- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Packers need bodies to help them run their new 3-4 defense, but the OL can’t be ignored either. Mark Tauscher is a free agent and coming off a torn ACL, and LT Chad Clifton is coming off off-season surgery on both knees. Smith’s stock has taken a huge hit due to him leaving the combine without warning, but it doesn’t change the three years of game tape on him. Watching that shows me he can be a very good RT, with the potential to play LT or even move inside to OG if needed. Smith fills an immediate hole for the Packers, and they can still address the OLB position in the second round. If Smith isn’t the pick, then I could see the Packers going for the next best 3-4 OLBs (Aaron Maybin, Everette Brown, Brian Cushing), a 3-4 DE (Tyson Jackson), or CB (Malcolm Jenkins).

10. San Francisco 49ers- Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
The 49ers have a variety of options here, but a RT is a big need for this team. With former first rounder Joe Staley on one side, and Oher on the other, the 49ers are set for the next 10 years. I really like Oher a lot, more so than other draft experts, so that’s why I have him going so high. If Smith were to slip to here, he may be the pick over Oher as he’s a more natural RT. Oher can play either LT or RT.

11. Buffalo Bills- Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
The Bills are in serious need of pass rush help on the outside, and Brown is one of the best in this draft. He’s a bit undersized and I do feel he might fit better as a 3-4 OLB (say to the 49ers at pick ten), but I believe that Brown is the best pure pass rusher in the draft. He has an already impressive arsenal of pass rush moves, with good speed to the outside as well. He struggles against the run though, but I don’t think he will begin as an every down end right away. He’ll play in a rotation and will improve this defense greatly. A corner like Malcolm Jenkins, an OLB like Brian Cushing, or an ILB like Rey Maualuga would fit well in this spot too.

12. Denver Broncos- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Yes, Jenkins ran a subpar 40 time at the combine. But to be honest, I think too many people are taking way too much stock in 3/100ths of a second. Jenkins is a solid cover corner, and if a team is truly worried about his long speed, he could be an impact FS. This Broncos team needs a good corner opposite Champ Bailey, and they could use a starting FS as well. So in all actuality, he fits either need for this team. I think Maualuga moves up to here with an improved performance at his pro day though as it’s a bigger need for this team. Having seen his performance at the combine though when he hurt his hamstring, I can’t put him this high without confirming his actual timed speed. So Jenkins gets the call instead. I have to say I am curious as to why new coach Josh McDaniels has handled the whole Jay Cutler issue. To me, it reeks of him trying to be like his former boss before he’s earned that right. If the Cutler issue continues to deteriorate, then I could see the Broncos trading Cutler away and potentially taking Mark Sanchez with this pick instead. I think that’s a stupid idea, but it may end up being the best option to end everything peacefully.

13. Washington Redskins- Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
I think the Redskins really want either Oher or Smith to fall to them so they can upgrade at their very thin RT position. But neither is available in this mock and I think Cushing is the best fit for value vs. need. DE is definitely a big need for this team, but defensive coordinator Greg Blache likes bigger DE’s who hold the run more so than undersized speed rushers. So maybe Tyson Jackson of LSU goes here because he fits that profile, but I think Cushing is a better overall player. The Redskins can use Cushing to rush the passer if needed, and he’s physical enough to hold the edge and cover TE’s as well.

14. New Orleans Saints- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Running back is not a huge need for this team, but Moreno provides a good value at a position of secondary need. Pierre Thomas played well last year, but he was an undrafted free agent for a reason. Reggie Bush can’t stay healthy, and when he is healthy, he’s not an every down RB. Moreno is the best option at this position even with a subpar 40 time at the combine. He’s smaller than Wells, but he’s tougher and runs harder. Long time reader Jim McNamara is gonna kill me for this pick as I was just agreeing with him on Friday that RB’s and WR’s are a better value after the first round. Sorry Jimmy, but I couldn’t make this work without Moreno going this high.

15. Houston Texans- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
The Texans filled their biggest need this off-season in free agency with the acquisition of DE Antonio Smith. While another first round DL like Peria Jerry could be he pick, I think that three first round DL is enough to stick with for now. Davis hasn’t produced as consistently as his talent would dictate, but he’s worth taking at pick 15 due to his upside. The Texans franchised Dunta Robinson, and picking Davis will allow them to seriously consider if they want to sign him long turn after this season or go with Davis as his replacement as the number one CB. The wildcard pick to me is Mark Sanchez. I would not be surprised one bit if the Texans do pick Sanchez even with what they’ve spent on Matt Schaub. Schaub has not been able to stay healthy, and Sanchez would give them the option of a future franchise QB who could be looked at as a reliable back up for now.

16. San Diego Chargers- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
If you read a lot of other mock drafts, you’ll probably see a lot of variance of where Jackson is being drafted. Here’s the thing with Jackson: He’s the perfect 3-4 DE, and with the proliferation of 3-4 defenses and teams switching to it, his stock has skyrocketed. My problem is that he’s done nothing to deserve that high draft status other than fitting well into that style of defense. To me, Jackson is a good fit from pick 15 downward in the draft. I don’t feel he’s worth a pick higher than this as he doesn’t have much potential as a pass rusher. He’s a strong side 3-4 DE who will stop the run and keep the lanes clear for the OLB’s to make an impact. With the Chargers opting to not re-sign Igor Olshansky, Jackson will step right in as an immediate starter. If Jackson is gone, then the Chargers will either hope one of the top four OT’s slides down, grab Rey Maualuga, or maybe look at a slot WR who can break things open like a Percy Harvin.

17. New York Jets- Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
This is the ideal situation that the Jets will hope happens. Sanchez will be an immediate starter and their franchise QB. I’m just concerned that this will never happen, as QB’s are valuable enough that some team will move up to grab Sanchez near the top 10. But then again no one would have guessed that Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn would have slipped into the 20’s either. If Sanchez is gone, then an OLB like Aaron Maybin would fit as well.

18. Chicago Bears- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
I almost hate myself for putting this here, but it actually makes the most sense. The Bears desperately need help on the perimeter, and DHB is a speedy perimeter receiver. He’s more raw than a more reliable pick like Hakeem Nicks, but his upside is much higher and that is what the Bears will go for here. When making this pick, it came down to DHB, Arizona OT Ebon Britton, and DE Aaron Maybin. I’m not a huge fan of Maybin, so he’s out. I like the Britton pick a lot and would be very happy if that is where Chicago goes, but I think a quality RT could be had within the next three rounds. And yes Jimmy, they could get a WR later as well, but none with the potential of Heyward-Bey. The only thing I don’t like about Heyward-Bey right now is that he can let some balls get into his frame, but it’s minor and not enough to warrant not getting a potential home run threat for this offense. With DHB, Hester, and Olson you have three of the fastest receiving options which should open up running lanes for Forte. But the Bears could go completely out of left field and grab Peria Jerry surprise everyone. Or Josh Freeman wouldn’t be a bad pick either if Jerry Angelo really doesn’t like Kyle Orton as much as it seems.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Tampa Bay fired Jon Gruden for not developing a young QB, so a new coach and GM make the move with Freeman. Freeman might be the rawest of the top three QB prospects, but he’s also fits the profile of what you look for in an NFL QB. He’s tall, he’s big, and he has the arm to make any of the NFL throws. He’s going to need some time to develop, but he has potential to be a top NFL QB so the Bucs draft for the future and not the present. Someone like Jerry or Maybin would fit bigger needs, but QB is lacking right now as well so Freeman makes sense.

20. Detroit Lions- Rey Maualuga, MLB, USC
I think this pick comes down to either Peria Jerry or Maualuga, with Maualuga being the pick in the end. Even if he runs a subpar 40 at his pro day, he’s worth a top 20 pick. This fits well with the type of defenders new head coach Jim Schwartz likes in his front seven. Maualuga is a big run stopping inside presence that will team with Ernie Sims and Julian Peterson to form what is quickly becoming one of the better linebacking cores in the NFC.

21. Philadelphia Eagles- Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Andy Reid likes linemen, and he needs another potential LT of the future after opting to allow Tra Thomas to move on in free agency. Maybin and Jerrry would fit as well, especially in this defense, but OL is a bigger need.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
The Vikings really don’t have many needs and will opt to take the best player available. The Vikes have some players opposite Jared Allen, but none have the potential that Maybin does. With two big DT’s on the inside, the undersized Maybin would fit well as a rotational pass rusher coming off the edge. It’s even possible that Maybin could play some OLB contribute there as well. A WR like Percy Harvin or Hakeem Nicks might fit as well, but I think this is a position they can address later in the draft.

23. New England Patriots- Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
I think this is as big of a no brainer as you can get. Matthews is the perfect effort type player that Belichik loves. He will come right in and give them an upgrade as a pass rusher and is almost an exact younger copy of the traded Mike Vrabel. With BB’s ties to Urban Meyer and the University of Florida, I could see Percy Harvin going here. But defense rules and Matthews is a more reliable pick.

24. Atlanta Falcons- Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
I’ve said this several times already but I really like Jerry’s potential as a difference making DT. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him go as high as pick 13, but due to team needs, I could see him falling this far as well. The Flacons have to be ecstatic to get a player of Jerry’s talent this late in the draft. Atlanta could use a bugger run stuffing presence at the position, but Jerry is a game changer as a penetrating DT.

25. Miami Dolphins- James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State
I’ve never been a fan of Laurinaitis, but he’s still worth a lower firs round draft pick. The Dolphins could really use one of the remaining WR prospects, but in true Parcells fashion, Miami continues to build it’s defense. I could also see a combo defensive back like Sean Smith of Utah being considered strongly here as well as it fits Parcells draft style.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
The Ravens will be in very good shape to take the best available CB or WR at this pick. In the end, the fact that WR’s can take a year or two to contribute and that the Ravens make no qualms about winning with defense, Smith makes the most sense. He’s perfect for this defense as he’s a ball hawk who plays full speed at all times. He’s a good tackler in the run game, and he can return kicks as well. It’s a great pick for the Ravens, but I wouldn’t argue if they went with Hakeem Nicks either.

27. Indianapolis Colts- Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
WR isn’t the biggest need for this team, but the Colts will always build around Peyton Manning and this offense. Harvin fits well in the slot, and it allows Anthony Gonzales to move outside and replace Marvin Harrison. If Harvin is not the pick, then a DT like Ziggy Hood or DE Robert Ayers would make sense as well.

28. Philadelphia Eagles- Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
I’m not a huge fan of Wells because of his injury history and soft running for a back his size. But when he’s on, he’s a bell cow type RB. He’d be a good fit opposite Bryan Westbrook as a punishing inside runner and the value is good for this position. Brandon Pettigrew or Louis Delmas would not surprise me here either, but I think Reid goes with a potential offensive weapon instead.

29. New York Giants- Hakeem Nicks, WR, UNC
Nicks is one of my personal favorite receivers in this draft, and if he falls this far, he’s a bona fide steal. He’s a true perimeter receiver that just gets opens, has great hands, and makes plays. He’s not a true burner type receiver, but that doesn’t matter. He’s fast on film, and that’s all that matters to the Giants.

30. Tennessee Titans- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
The Titans will sit back and just take the best player available, and I think that Ayers fits into this mold. He’s a bigger DE, which fits into the Titan’s defensive scheme well. This team is in desperate need of youth and depth at the DE position, and Ayers is a perfect fit for that.

31. Arizona Cardinals- Alex Mack, OC, California
I think at this point everyone who has read this blog knows I love Alex Mack. I think this is a no-brainer, and Mack is a steal at this point. A pass rushing OLB like Connor Barwin or Larry English would make sense too, but a player like Mack is someone you do not pass on. I don’t see anyone else going here as this just makes too much sense from value and need. A running back would be helpful, as would a blocking TE like Pettigrew, but none are as good of a value as Mack.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers- Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan
The Steelers will be hoping that Mack falls to them, but it doesn’t happen in this scenario. Some may call this a luxury pick, but it’s a value pick in true Steelers fashion. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a solid true FS like Delmas for a while, and it makes the number one defense in the league that much stronger. It’s not very Steeler-like to reach for someone, but I could see them going for a potential future NT like BC’s Ron Brace or a DE Ziggy Hood.