Monday, April 18, 2011

Defensive Tackle

I may have said last year was the best group of DTs I had ever seen, and that probably still holds true considering that I still strongly believe Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will be two of the best DTs in the NFL for the next 10 years. This year’s crop may not have that high of a grade, but they make up for it with amazing depth. I think that this is one position where a team can get a quality starter at this position into and through the third round. Now, that may seem like a no brainer to most, but I’m not talking about one or two per round in the first three rounds. I’m talking about 10-15 very solid starters that contribute immediately. I think Suh is proof positive that an elite prospect at this position is worth drafting high no matter what. They can make a huge impact immediately, and it’s an easy position to transition to from college to the NFL. So with the lockout, it’s a position that I think will move up in importance.

And before I start, don’t think that just because I am posting this now I am jumping on the bandwagon of recent reports and mock drafts. I will use my good friend Tom as proof that I have been saying these same things about the following prospects for months now. It’s just that I was doing it over email and not beating everyone else to this. I think the best defensive line prospect in this draft is Alabama DT/DE Marcell Dareus. Why do I like him more than say Da’Quan Bowers or Nick Fairley? It’s because of his versatility and overall body of work (combined with his measureables). I think Dareus is the safest pick for number one as it’s an impact position that transitions quickly to the pro game, and he can fit both 3-4 and 4-3 defenses. With new Panthers head coach Ron Rivera having experience in both as a defensive coordinator, Dareus makes perfect sense as someone who can slide down and be an impact pass rushing 3-technique DT or a stout and powerful 5-technique. Dareus is a game changer who can manhandle offensive lineman when he gets his hands on them, and he can rush the passer well for a man of his size. Everyone’s favorite DT this season has been Auburn’s Nick Fairley. I think those claiming Bowers is a one-year wonder should look no further than Fairley. He’s not even been on the radar. I have seen Auburn games before this season and I never found a single note on Fairley, which means he showed nothing prior to this year. That concerns me a great deal as I just don’t know if he has the consistent motor and work ethic to be worth a top five pick. I will admit that Fairley can be dominant when he wants to. He’s a very good pass rusher and has excellent quickness for a guy his size. My biggest problem with him, which is what I discussed with Tom several months ago, is his tendency to play far too high. At the college level, he could swim past over matched guards and make plays. At the pro level, if he shows his numbers like I saw on tape, he will catch a 6in punch to the chest from the likes of Logan Mankins or Carl Nicks and he will find himself on his backside. Everyone is athletic at the NFL level. He’s going to have to work on his technique and consistency to really make an impact in the NFL, and it’s what would make me hesitate to take him until picks 8-15. Even then, I’m going to be on him constantly in the offseason to ensure I am getting return on my draft investment.

After the top two guys, the next tier of DTs could go anywhere from the mid first and onward; and a lot of it depends on if a team is willing to look past certain flaws that each of these guys has. Illini DT Corey Liuget is a guy who grew on me as the season wore on. He’s still a bit raw and has room and time to fill out more physically, but he is very quick and has very good hands when fighting for position on the inside. I think he will make an immediate impact as a pass rusher, and with time, will be a solid two-way player. He also has some ability to play the 3-4 DE as well, but I think he’s better fit as a 3-technique DT. Another guy in this same category is Temple DT Muhammad Wilkerson. I think he’s probably better fit as a 5-technique because of his length, but he can fit either positions well. He’s got very good athleticism for a man his size and he flat out dominated on a defense where no one else was helping him out. Another guy who some may now label as a ‘workout warrior’ after smashing the record at the combine for bench reps at 225lbs is Oregon St’s Stephen Paea. You will remember from last year’s coverage how much I liked Paea, so it was good to see some of the things validated that appeared on tape. I think too many people who do not know him as a prospect will think the bench is what got him drafted high despite him having a knee injury and not being able to do much more than bench right now, but this is far from the case. Paea is very quick off the ball and makes his living on disrupting the flow of a play by getting into the backfield quickly. If he can’t shoot the gap, he can overpower a guard and force them into disrupting running and passing lanes. I would personally love to see him in a Bears uniform should there be a run on the top OTs.

The third tier are guys who maybe did not live up to expectations this season, but could make extremely good values in the second or third round. UNC’s Marvin Austin, like Quinn, was suspended for the entire season; which is a shame as I felt the one thing he needed was to prove he can consistently dominate game in and game out. I think regardless of this, his performance at the Shrine Game and his amazing performance at the combine should see him go no lower than the mid second round. He’s just too talented to pass up in my opinion. LSU’s Drake Nevis was a guy I said could be a first half of the first round player, but simply did not show the dominance he did the past two years. I’m willing to give him a mulligan though, and if the Bears do get an OT in the first, he’s someone I would see them target hard in the second as he is a great fit in the cover-2 defense. Want another name of a player that fits well into this defense? Jurell Casey of USC. I’m not as big of a fan of Casey as others, as I think he’s just a bit too lazy of a player and it shows in his physique. Having said that, I think if he puts some effort behind his natural talent, he can be a very good starter at the NFL level because of his quick and hands and feet.

What should also be mentioned are the decent amount of true NT prospects in this draft. The best of them all is Baylor’s Phil Taylor. Taylor has a huge lower body and is absolutely impossible to root out of the hole by one guy, and he even handles the double team very well. He has surprisingly decent pass rush moves as well for a guy who will be looked at as a space eating 0-technique nose tackle. I don’t see how he make it past the Chiefs in the first round, and no chance he goes past the Jets. Ole Miss’s Jerell Powe and Hampton’s Kenrick Ellis are also two more guys who should be available in the third round and onward who can help make a difference at the 3-4 NT position. Both have some issues off the field that need to be carefully balanced with what they provide on the field, but it’s simply too difficult to find human beings that are large enough and strong enough to fit this position and do well. Both these guys can contribute and do well, even if it’s in a rotation.

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