I’m splitting up the selections to save on space for you to read as it’s already really long with just 16 picks.
17. New England Patriots- Cameron Jordan, DE, California
As always, the rich get richer when it comes to the Patriots. Bill Belichick can seriously flip a coin here between Jordan and Watt and come away with an immediate starter at the 5-technique DE position. I went with Jordan here because of his pedigree, as he’s the son of long time NFL TE Steve Jordan. He’s a high character player, with a high motor, who is solid against the run, solid against the pass, and is about a safe of a pick as you will find. An OT like Gabe Carimi would be an excellent choice as well, but I just value Watt and Jordan higher right now, and this is also a position of need. The Patriots could go another direction as well with DE Ryan Kerrigan and transition him to rush OLB. He does fit the type of player New England likes at this position, but Jordan doesn’t have to transition at all. He played this position in college, so he’s NFL ready.
18. San Diego Chargers- J.J Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Let the run on 5-techniques begin! I’m surprised to see Watt available here, as I could easily see him going as high as number nine overall to the Cowboys. The Chargers are fairly loaded with talent, and have only a select few holes where they could use some infusions of young talent. When looking at all of these positions (OLB, DE, OT, and ILB), Watt is the best value. I really love Watt’s motor and versatility, and he’s the type of player GM AJ Smith goes for. His best football is ahead of him, and he’s going to be the hard working type that will bring a very good return on a first round investment. The Chargers have two second round picks, and they can take advantage of the depth at those other positions and address them later.
19. New York Giants- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
So I think I am the only person who thinks that Carimi is either the top OT in this draft, or at least 1B to Tyron Smith’s 1A. Carimi allows the Giants to improve at three positions on the OL immediately. How is that so you may ask? Current LT David Diehl can move to the LG spot, which I have always felt he is better suited. Emerging young OT William Beatty can then move to RT and replace the ineffective and old Kareem McKenzie. So in one player, the team is essentially locking up and drastically improving almost their entire starting five offensive linemen. I don’t see the Giants going with anything but an offensive lineman with this pick, whether it’s one of the other OTs or an OC/OG like Mike Pouncey. I’ve seen a lot of rumors in the media say the Giants should seriously look at Mark Ingram here. While I am a big fan of Ingram, I just think a RB can be had in a later rounds, and an OT makes a lot more sense for value in the first.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
I think the Bucs would do cartwheels if the draft shakes out like this and Kerrigan is still available. I have some concerns with how he will hold up at the next level against larger OTs, but Kerrigan showed consistently over his time at Purdue that he can make plays in the backfield. It is the continuation of last year’s top two picks at DT for the Bucs in building a young, elite, front four. If Jimmy Smith were to fall I think Tampa Bay should think hard about him over the available DEs, but even if he and Kerriga are gone, then one of the other DEs like Adrian Clayborn or even one of the top OTs would be a solid value selection.
21. Kansas City Chiefs- Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
This selection came down to three players for me: Taylor, Anthony Castonzo, and Pouncey. Taylor is just too hard to pass on as I believe he is a true impact 3-4 NT, and those are extremely hard to find. A tackle or guard/center can be had in any of the ongoing rounds, but true 0-technique space eaters are few and far between. Don’t believe the recent media reports that Taylor has issues with his feet, as I think that’s nothing but a smoke screen from another team hoping it will push Taylor down further so they can draft him (the Jets have to be a team hoping Taylor is there at 30 when they pick). Kansas City could also use a rush OLB as well, but I just don’t like the value for what is left on the board at this point. Taylor can start immediately and is the missing piece to this defense to really shore up their run defense.
22. Indianapolis Colts- Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Again, I am apparently in the minority in that I don’t think Castonzo is as good as everyone is saying he is. Yes, he has the potential and ability to play LT, but he’s going to take some bumps and bruises while developing and working on refining his technique and improving his strength. Good thing is, the Colts offense is a perfect fit for an athletic tackle like Castonzo. He will be asked to come in and start immediately, which in the long run will make him better. Don’t expect a huge impact by him right away, but the Colts absolutely have to address the OT position in the first round and perhaps once again later for a solid back up. A DT like Stephen Paea is a player I really like and think fits extremely well, but protecting the best QB in the league is more paramount to Indy’s success.
23. Philadelphia Eagles- Mike Pouncey, OC/OG, Florida
The Eagles are predictable in a good way. The believe strongly in building from the line outward, and Pouncey is a solid value at this point. I do think that Mike lives a bit on his brother Maurkice’s Pro Bowl rookie season, as he’s solid but I don’t think he’s as athletically gifted as his twin brother. Mike should start out at guard, and may stay there, but he has the ability to play center as well. His versatility is what makes him valuable, and he will fit well on this Eagles OL. Center Jamaal Jackson spent a good amount of time on the disabled list last year, and LG Todd Heremans is not outstanding by any means. So Pouncey should come in and challenge foe one of those positions right away. I came every close to choosing UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers, but I think Pouncey is just a better fit for this team and for the positional value.
24. New Orleans Saints- Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
The Saints have been missing an elite talent at OLB for years now, and Ayers is the kind of player who can make a huge difference for this defense. Greg Williams likes to mix fronts and blitz packages with his front seven, and Ayers is the exact kind of versatile OLB that this team does not have. Yes, a pass rushing DE like Adrian Clayborn would fit well, but I think Ayers fills a bigger void. I have seen many mock drafts that have the Saints potentially addressing the OT position as well with current LT Jermon Bushrod being a potential free agent once the lockout is sorted, but I remember that the Saints very smartly grabbed USC OT Charles Brown last year, who can take over if needed. I wouldn’t argue with Nate Solder though if he’s the pick here either.
25. Seattle Seahawks- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
I think by now most of you know I am a big fan of Clayborn’s. I know there has been a lot of talk recently about how Clayborn suffers from Erb’s Palsy and he has weakness in his left arm and shoulder. Well, I’m here to say I don’t care. Just watch tape of Clayborn play and it’s all you will need. Yes, he did not have a great 2010 campaign, but it’s not enough for me to pass him at this point in the draft. What stands out most to me with Clayborn are the splash plays he makes, which are events in a game that can change momentum. I still remember the Penn State game in 2009 where he blocked a punt, had one of the most clean sacks on a bull rush I have seen, and made more than one stop in the run game behind the line of scrimmage. Clayborn is a bigger DE as well, and that is what the Seahawks seem to prefer, and he will instantly upgrade their pass rush potential. I know some will connect the very obvious dots of in-state prospect Jake Locker to Seattle, but I just don’t think that the Seahawks need to address the QB right now. Re-sign Hasselbeck, keep Whitehurst around, and maybe look at a QB in the next round or the next draft. If it’s not Clayborn here I would think very long and hard about Nate Solder, Derrick Sherrod, or Danny Watkins to continue to improve that OL.
26. Baltimore Ravens- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple
I would say that the glaring need for the Ravens is a CB, but at this point there is simply too much value left at secondary positions of need for this team. The Ravens love versatile defensive linemen that can line up at several spots, whether it’s a big DT that can play the nose in a four man front or slide down and play the zero-technique in a three man front, a quicker and longer DT who can slide over to play the five-technique or down to a three-technique, or the undersized DE who can also stand up and play OLB. Wilkerson fits the middle instance of a player who can rush the passer as a three-technique DT, or slide out and stuff the run when the Ravens run a three man front. There are some mocks that have Wilkerson going much higher than this, but I just don’t think he’s as game ready as some of the other players with similar styles. To me, this is the ideal value and he goes to a defense that fits him better than probably any other team in the first round. If Jimmy Smith is free falling because the character concerns are that great, I think this is the absolute farthest he will go as the Ravens have the strong locker room that can keep him in line and watch him blossom. If this same scenario pans out though and he’s not there, a CB like Brandon Harris of Miami would be a solid value for their needs as well, but I value Wilkerson higher. For me, if it’s not Wilkerson, then I look at a RT like Nate Solder or Derrick Sherrod.
27. Atlanta Falcons- Justin Houston, DE, Georgia
This one really put me on the spot as I had a tough time picking between the really dire need for a pass rushing threat like Houston or a potential RT replacement for Tyson Clabo (who is a potential free agent) in Nate Solder. What sticks in my memory is watching the Falcons get absolutely torched by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense in the playoffs, so I go for the pass rusher who can help bridge that gap between a one-and-done playoff team and a NFC Championship contender. John Abraham is not getting any younger, and I really liken Houston to him as a player. He’s a tweener who isn’t a great fit for either a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB, but I think he’s better fit with his hand on the ground and doing what he does best which is get to the passer. He won’t be asked to do much except play in a rotation and rush the passer as a rookie, which is ideal while he develops as two-way defender. Besides the above facts, the Falcons could resign Clabo and still be in decent shape on the OL, so it makes more sense to go with a player with potential at this stage of the first round.
28. New England Patriots- Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
The Patriots will probably move some of the massive amount of picks they have this year, but I think they’d be better off staying where they are and addressing a few positions of need with some good young players. I count DE, OLB, OT, and RB as the positions New England would do well to address with their first four picks in the first two rounds; and they will have some very solid options at all of those picks. As much as I absolutely love Mark Ingram, I just struggle to pick a first round RB over another position that will potentially last longer career-wise. Solder is far from a polished or finished prospect, but this is the perfect situation for him. If the Pats re-sign matt Light, he can sit and learn behind him and very promising young RT Sebastian Vollmer. That should give Solder the time to get stronger and work on stopping the inside counter move. If Light is not resigned, I wouldn’t say it’s a bad idea to throw Solder at RT and Vollmer at LT and just let him learn on the fly. Solder has the athleticism to plat LT at some point in his career, and in this scenario he is given the time to do so. If Solder is gone, then I would very quickly grab mark Ingram over the next best OT (Derrick Sherrod). As for the rush OLB, that’s something that can easily be addressed with pick 33 at the top of the second round.
29. Chicago Bears- Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi St
I think I hear a collective groan from Bears fans all over as they have to settle for what looks like the fifth best OT in the draft. Could I have potentially looked at a top guard like Danny Watkins of Baylor? Sure, but he’s also a 27 year old rookie, and this is a team that needs youth and talent (especially on the edges). What I really like about Sherrod is his arm length. It’s the one knock on Chris Williams, he didn’t have the ideal long arms you look for in an OT who can lock out and ride defenders outside the pocket. Sherrod has good feet to go along with those long arms, and even if he maybe isn’t as athletic of a player as you want at LT, he can play the position. Absolute worst case scenario, Sherrod can play RT and put J’Marcus Webb back to where he should be, as a decent back up player. Although I would rate Sherrod as the fifth best OT, I think he’s the third best rub blocking tackle behind Carimi and Tyron Smith. Mike Tice loves bigger players who can maul in the run game, and he can work on protection schemes to help hide any deficiencies in their pass blocking. OL is such a gaping hole as far as need for this team that I just don’t know how they can go with another position. A CB or a DT would be a good selection, and they can get some good value here with Stephen Paea of Oregon St or Brandon Harris of Miami, but I think the need and value of Sherrod just outweigh either of those players at this point. Those people hyping DT Marvin Austin of UNC are just off base here. I like Austin, but he’s not a first rounder. And Paea is flat out a better DT than Austin is anyway.
30. New York Jets- Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
The Jets would love to see a true 3-4 nose like Phil Taylor fall here, but I don’t think he makes it this far because of his rare skill set and size. The Jets need versatile defensive players who can help get after the passer, and Heyward is a four year long favorite of mine. I think he’s being very undervalued at this point due to his off-season elbow surgery, and the Jets will be the benefactors of this. Heyward can come right in and play one of the DE spots for this hybrid 34/46 defense, and he will provide stout run stopping skills and good enough pass rushing skills as well. A high energy rush OLB like Brooks Reed of Arizona is tempting, but I think this is a position the Jets can address later on. It sounds crazy, but Mark Ingram could even be a possibility here because his value is immense at this late stage of the first round. A sleeper pick that some may think I scrazy considering what they already have at the position is Texas CB Aaron Williams. Why would that be the choice you may ask? Because Williams will be converted to FS on this team and fill a huge hole that is currently missing. But a transition player isn’t what a championship contending team needs. Heyward is the steady value presence that makes this team that much better.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers- Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
I look at Williams as a two-for-one pick here for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has some very glaring needs on the OL and at CB. They have some solid prospects staring at them right here in Williams or Brandon Harris at CB or Danny Watkins at OG/RT. Williams is the pick as he can come in and play at CB immediately, and if he doesn’t work out there, he can transition to FS and help make up one of the stronger safety tandems in the entire league. Pittsburgh likes bigger corners that can be physical at the line and re-route receivers., and this is what Williams is very good at. I just worry about his slight stiffness in turning and running with faster WRs in the NFL. I’d liken him to Malcolm Jenkins of the Saints, where he should be tried at corner, and if not then stick him at FS and be very happy with your return on investment. If Heyward were available, or Sherrod, then I would easily take either of these players over Williams as they are better fits and values.
32. Green Bay Packers- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
This simply amazes me that I have gotten to the last pick of the first round and Mark Ingram is still available. I would be willing to bet a large amount of money that this does not happen. Ingram is just too good of a RB to last this long. But having said that, the fact that the feature-back type of RB is a dying breed in the NFL makes this much more likely. Even though Ingram is very good, his shelf life is probably 8 years. That doesn’t seem bad, but when you think that a CB like say Ronde Barber can play for about 13-15 years, it makes one think very hard about passing on the running back and going another direction. It pains me to say this, but the Packers do the draft right and have a very talented and young team. There are very few needs for the defending Super Bowl champs, so they can take the enviable position of drafting the best player available in each round. Don’t forget the mass amount of injuries this team ahd last year, so they have players coming back at many positions. So I think getting younger at CB, picking up another OT, another DE, a rush OLB to rotate in alongside Mathews, and possibly a RB is solid. Ingram could make what is already a potent offense close to unstoppable. Don’t give me James Starks and Ryan Grant. Can they get the job done? Sure, they proved that with the Lombardi Trophy this year. But there is a difference between getting the job done and having a potentially elite player at the position. He fits this style of offense perfectly as well, so if he’s here, there is no one I would pick over him. The rich get richer and it make me feel sick as a Bears fan.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Friday, April 22, 2011
DDA’s 2011 Mock Draft- Round 1 (picks 1-16)
I’d like to say I am so good that I only need one version of my mock draft, but the reality is I barely had time to get this one version out (let alone several). The only time I really like to do several is when free agency is happening, as it can vary the needs. I think I say this every year, but ignore all of the big sways in players moving one way or another in mock drafts. This is the season of misinformation, and teams are trying to get anything they can in the media to confuse other teams and try to get the player they want to slide to their pick. I always rely on what I have watched on film, and what perhaps the combine and pro days have confirmed from a measureable numbers standpoint. Unlike the big dogs on ESPN, I don’t have “sources” or ‘insider information’. And I don’t pick my mock drafts like I am pretending to be psychic and know what a team will do. I look at this as if I am the GM of that team and I am drafting based on who is available. I look at what the team needs, the value of the players left, the depth of the positions available, and several other minor things that factor into a decision (like is it a position that transitions quickly to the next level, or am I picking in the bottom quarter of the round and can afford a project player).
So you will notice my Mock Draft will look very different to the other media outlets. What I always pride myself on is going back in 3-5 years and seeing what I had thought was right. It usually turns out the players I thought should go higher ended up being better players. When teams get caught up in ideas like ‘positional value’ and that, it’s when you let better football players pass you by. You can’t assume you will get player X in round Y. If you like them, and they fit your scheme, and you are confident they will be better than what other people think they will be, go take them. The teams that can do this with conviction are the teams that consistently do well.
The only caveat I throw in here is I do not have detailed information on injury reports or character questions other than what is available in the media. Those are probably the two key things that will cause someone to slide when I think they should be picked higher.
Here goes nothing, feel free to post comments or stop by next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for the Live blog coverage.
1. Carolina Panthers- Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
No QB here for me, as I just have too much risk aversion in both Gabbert and Newton to get this one wrong. QB is definitely the most important position on a team, so the value is higher, but that also means the magnitude of messing this up is so much higher. This pick won’t set back the franchise for years as Dareus is NFL ready, a clean prospect, and he’s very versatile. New head coach Chico Rivera has run both 4-3, 3-4, and even hybrid 46 defenses. He’s more than likely going to be pressing his D-coordinator to do the same. Dareus is a great fit in this regard as he can play all along the line in even and odd man fronts. He’ll make an impact from day one in a positive way, which is all that matters. The only other player I consider here is Patrick Peterson, but the Carolina defensive backfield was actually pretty good last year. I wouldn’t complain if that were the pick though.
2. Denver Broncos- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
I think Peterson is the best overall player in this draft, regardless of position. Denver could probably use front seven help on the defensive line, but Champ Bailey isn’t getting any younger, and Parrish Cox may be going to prison (look it up for more details). Peterson can come in and start immediately, and he also gives Denver a huge weapon in the punt return game. Is it a risk to put the number two overall pick in on kick returns? Sure, but it’s also bound to bring some reward when he potentially changes a loss to a win with a return TD. The only other players I consider here are Da’Quan Bowers or Robert Quinn. I skip both because I rate Peterson higher, and all three are even needs at this point. Plus he has a clean injury record, so it’s a no-brainer.
3. Buffalo Bills- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
I make this pick with some trepidation. I’m one of the few still a bit on the fence about Miller. While he improved this year, I still worry that he is more of a one-dimensional speed rusher than a complete prospect. I thought about Robert Quinn here, but I think Buffalo does not want to risk drafting another transition player who will be learning to play with his hand off the ground in a 3-4. Miller proved this year he can drop into coverage, and he’s played in a hybrid defense like this. Plus he’s good enough to play SLB if the Bills do move to more 4-3 looks. Don’t believe the hype of people saying ‘they have Merriman and Kelsay, they don’t need an upgrade on the OLB spot’. I think that’s precisely why they need an upgrade, as neither of those players strikes fear into opposing offenses any more.
4. Cincinnati Bengals- AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Gabbert and Newton are still on the board, and the Bengals need a long term option at QB even if Palmer decides to come back, but I just think it’s still not worth the risk here. I’d rather take a player like Green, and now you have a potentially lethal group of pass catching options with the late surging Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley in the slot, Chad Johnson potentially staying, and a healthy Germaine Gresham at TE. I really have a hard time splitting hairs between Jones and Green as I really like both. I think Jones is the best blocking WR I have seen since Hines Ward, but Green just has a feel for the position that can’t be taught and he will be a star in time. If I’m Palmer, I’d be rushing back to play with this cast of weapons to throw to, as you won’t find another team as loaded with young talent on the skill positions as they are. If they did go for Gabbert, I wouldn’t argue too much. I would argue if it’s Newton though, more on that later. If Cincinnati went with a DE like Bowers or Quinn, I would also not argue one bit.
5. Arizona Cardinals- Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
I absolutely love Robert Quinn, and I’m confident he can make the transition to OLB in a 3-4 and make a huge impact for this Cardinals team. Arizona is loaded on the defensive line, but they’ve been missing that true rush OLB for some time now. Quinn can provide that, and it’s all he will be asked to provide. With a sleeper player I liked previously (O’Brien Schofield) developing on the other side, this Cardinals front seven could very quickly be one of the most dangerous in all of the NFL. It doesn’t matter who is QB’ing, as they will be in ever game if this develops like I think it can. Drafting Newton or Gabbert here doesn’t make much sense to me. The Cardinals drafted two developmental QBs last year, they don’t need a third. They need a veteran like Palmer or Bulger in here instead.
6. Cleveland Browns- Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
I’m one of the few apparently who really think that Bowers will be an excellent pass rusher at the next level. What I like best is he’s a stout run defender as well, so he’s a two-way player worthy of a top ten pick. The only thing that makes me think this will not happen is all of the bad press about how his knee may be a long term issue. As someone who has a knee that went from something simple being cleaned out to it now being a lifelong problem, I can see why a team may be skeptical to invest such a large chunk of money in a player with this issue. But I am going to assume it’s fine until we all see otherwise, and in this case, Bowers is a steal. The Browns could use a top notch WR talent like Julio Jones, but as long suffering Browns and DDA fan Danimal pointed out, Cleveland only has two defensive linemen under contract right now. So of it’s not Bowers, it’s Quinn if he’s here, or it may even be Nick Fairley (although I would pass on Fairley at this point due to the risk).
7. San Francisco 49ers- Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Once again I make this pick with trepidation. While I like Gabbert, and see the potential, it’s just that: potential. Do not believe for one second he’s in the league of Sam Bradford. Everyone wants to compare this year’s QBs to Bradford or Ryan or Flacco. The closest one I would compare them to is Flacco, but he went in the late teens, not in the top 10. Bradford was always a QB I said would be a star. His accuracy and ability to throw people open superseded any offensive scheme he played in. You can’t teach that. And that’s something I don’t see in any of these QBs this year. Gabbert has the least flaws though, and he fits well in a WC style offense that Harbaugh is more than likely to run. Plus, Gabbert has the athleticism and ability to throw on the move, which we have seen Harbaugh do in his days at Stanford. It’s the best case scenario, and it’s finally to the point where I think the risk balances with the reward. If everyone else in the media is right, and Gabbert is gone by this pick, then I think a corner like Prince Amukamara is the best choice. Or if Quinn were available, he’s a solid pick as well.
8. Tennessee Titans- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
I think this is the highest I would feel comfortable taking Fairley, and I did a good bit of thinking before I put pen to paper here. It’s a solid fit, and what makes me choose Fairley here is his college positional coach Tracy Rocker is the new DL coach for the Titans. Rocker obviously did something right to get the most out of Fairley this year, and having someone he’s comfortable with makes me think he will be more likely to succeed. But I am saying this with hesitation as I think he’s got the highest ‘boom or bust’ potential of these top ten picks. If he can learn to play at the next level with the same quickness, but with better pad level, he will be what this defense has desperately missed since they had a motivated Albert Haynesworth. I know Newton is still here and Tennessee needs a QB, but they have the same player on their roster in Vince Young, They will not make that same mistake twice, and will look for a prospect with a better value for the position in the second round.
9. Dallas Cowboys- Tyron Smith, OT, USC
I know some of you will immediately point out how I have said Gabe Carimi is my favorite OT in this draft, but hear me out on this one. While I do like Carimi slightly better, I do think Smith has as good of a floor as him but a higher ceiling as well. So I am going a bit on potential here, and because Smith will be asked to line up at a position he is confident playing in the right tackle spot. Dallas has a good number of options here with top notch players available at their three greatest positions of need (CB, DE, OT). I rate Smith slightly higher in the need department, and on par with someone like Amukamara at CB or J.J. Watt of Wisconsin at DE. This will be the start of rebuilding the Cowboys OL with some youth and talent at both tackle spots now.
10. Washington Redskins- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
I would run to the podium with the card tat this point, as Jones is a flat out steal. I thought long and hard about drafting him four overall, and at six, and at eight, so I cannot pass on him here at the ten spot. Due to years of incompetence in the draft room, the Redskins have needs all over their roster. Cam Newton is a possibility since he has the skills to roll out and throw on the run that Shanahan likes in his QBs, but I just feel Jones is a better overall NFL prospect. He will immediately be their number one receiver, and I think Jones will be in the top 10-15 WRs in the league within the next three years. If not Jones, then a DE like J.J. Watt would make an awful lot of sense here.
11. Houston Texans- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
I will always agree that a very good pass rush makes up for a weak secondary, so going for a rush OLB here like Aldon Smith would actually make sense. But when comparing where I feel these players rate value wise, I can’t pass on a secondary need in the secondary (get it? Yeah, that was weak). This would make for back to back first round CB selections for the Texans, but I think it’s warranted based on how poorly they played last year. Wade Phillips will make a difference, but it’s a big issue considering this team really doesn’t have the horses to run the 3-4 defense. Having said that, they have talented players that should fit, and I think getting an immediate starting corner of Amukamara’s talent is necessary when playing the Colts twice a year. Amukamara is a value at this point of the first round, and I could very easily see him go as high as number seven overall. If Prince is not the man here, then Aldon Smith does make sense and even Baylor NT Phil Taylor would fit probably the most glaring need on this transitioning defense (although he’s third on this list if all were available).
12. Minnesota Vikings- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Sure, I am probably one of the only mock drafts you will find with Newton going this low. But if I am honest with myself, I’d have him go even lower, probably in the second round. I look at Newton very much how I looked at Tim Tebow last year. I just don’t see him as a successful NFL QB. It has nothing to do with the off-the-field stuff, although that doesn’t help; it has everything to do with his on the field ability to transition to a pro-style QB. I think it’s the chic thing to compare him to Vick, but I think that’s not a great thing as Vick is exactly what Newton may be. He’s potentially good enough to get you to the playoffs, but that’s it. And even that is with a very strong cast around him. I just don’t see it in him, and it’s a huge risk taking him this high. I actually prefer Ryan Mallet, but with a somewhat porous OL, Minnesota needs a QB who can escape and hopefully make plays on the move. It’s a decent situation for him to go to, as there is a strong running game in place, so he won’t be asked to do too much right away. Going through progressive reads and putting the ball where it needs to be accurately will never be things Newton can do. Hopefully he proves me and other doubters wrong, but I am sticking strongly to this assessment until I see it. Personally, I would rather take a DT like Corey Liuget, a DE like Aldon Smith, a CB like Jimmy Smith, or an OT like Gabe Carimi. But I will weight need, with positional value, with some potential here and make take the plunge while holding my breath. And as a Bears fan, I secretly hope this happens and he’s as bad as I think so that it’s one less team to worry about in the division.
13. Detroit Lions- Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
I’m probably making a mistake here based on the fact that I don’t really know any of the history of Smith’s apparent ‘off-the-field’ issues. I’m going strictly based on the talent of this player and the glaring hole in the Lions secondary at the CB position. I think if Smith is a ‘clean prospect’, he’s potentially going in the top ten, and may even go higher than Amukamara. But weighing the risk, it’s worth it at this point as I think he can make a bigger impact than a DE or OT for the Lions. Those are positions that can be addressed later or in free agency if that ever occurs. Smith is very physical and is great at jamming guys at the line of scrimmage. It’s perfect for a young Lions team with an outstanding DL, as it will slow the passing routes up just enough to let those big guys get to the QB. Scary to admit it, but the Lions are starting to look VERY good. They just need to develop that finisher’s mentality, and they could be a force to be reckoned with.
14. St. Louis Rams- Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
I almost picked Liuget before I picked Fairley from the DT group as I know you are at the very least getting a high motor player with almost as much impact potential in Corey Liuget. Liuget is slightly undersized, but he’s quick, and his initial penetration is what causes him to be so effective. The Rams would love to see Green or Jones fall here, and I could actually see them making a move up to try to get one (which I wholeheartedly support), but neither will be available. So the Rams are better off going with a DT, a DE, or even a CB if Jimmy Smith is still available. I think Liuget may end up making a quicker impact than the other two DTs picked above him simply because he’s coming in to a better situation with some pass rushing talent already there on the outside in Chris Long and George Selvie. He’s the ideal three technique, and I’d love to see the Bears make a move for him, but this is pretty high to move up and they have to get at least to this spot to get him.
15. Miami Dolphins- Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas
I know most of you are probably wondering what changed my mind on Mallet considering I was not that high no him before. I think what has changed my mind slightly is the fact that he just has a much better base to work with than the other QBs in this draft. He is very limited athletically, but this is the perfect fit for him. Mallet is a pocket passer who needs some time, and he can pick a defense apart. He has the throwing ability you find in a franchise level QB, so with a good OL like the Dolphins have in place, he fits perfectly. Yes, Miami could use a center like Mike Pouncey, but I don’t think they will go with OL over the QB like they did three years ago with Jake Long over Matt Ryan. They made that choice then, which I still defend and think was the right choice, to make a selection like this possible. With the value of players left on the board, based on what the Dolphins are lacking, this just makes too much sense to me. I understand that Miami has no starting caliber RBs under contract right now, and Mark Ingram would be a great idea, but good RBs can be had in free agency or in rounds three and onward. I’d much rather pick Mallet, sign a free agent like Darren Sproles or DeAngelo Williams and get a veteran OC, then trying to fill those spots at this point in the draft. This is where the risk is worth the reward. I will also say this though: It would not surprise me one bit to see Mallet go higher or much, much lower. This QB class is really up and down and every team probably looks at every prospect very differently.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars- Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
While I slightly prefer J.J. Watt, I think Smith is a better fit for this defense. There is more potential there from a pass rushing perspective, although Watt is a much better run defender. The Jags desperately need someone who can really bend the edge and get after the passer, and with a solid DT group and a healthy Aaron Kampman coming back, Smith will fit in very nicely into their DL rotation. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Jacksonville go with a QB they like to develop over the next couple of years while they run out the David Gerrard, but they have a team that can win now, so this is not as pressing a need in my opinion. If Smith is not here, and DE is the choice, than Cameron Jordan, J.J. Watt, and Ryan Kerrigan would all be very good fits as well and I would not argue at all with any of those guys.
So you will notice my Mock Draft will look very different to the other media outlets. What I always pride myself on is going back in 3-5 years and seeing what I had thought was right. It usually turns out the players I thought should go higher ended up being better players. When teams get caught up in ideas like ‘positional value’ and that, it’s when you let better football players pass you by. You can’t assume you will get player X in round Y. If you like them, and they fit your scheme, and you are confident they will be better than what other people think they will be, go take them. The teams that can do this with conviction are the teams that consistently do well.
The only caveat I throw in here is I do not have detailed information on injury reports or character questions other than what is available in the media. Those are probably the two key things that will cause someone to slide when I think they should be picked higher.
Here goes nothing, feel free to post comments or stop by next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for the Live blog coverage.
1. Carolina Panthers- Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
No QB here for me, as I just have too much risk aversion in both Gabbert and Newton to get this one wrong. QB is definitely the most important position on a team, so the value is higher, but that also means the magnitude of messing this up is so much higher. This pick won’t set back the franchise for years as Dareus is NFL ready, a clean prospect, and he’s very versatile. New head coach Chico Rivera has run both 4-3, 3-4, and even hybrid 46 defenses. He’s more than likely going to be pressing his D-coordinator to do the same. Dareus is a great fit in this regard as he can play all along the line in even and odd man fronts. He’ll make an impact from day one in a positive way, which is all that matters. The only other player I consider here is Patrick Peterson, but the Carolina defensive backfield was actually pretty good last year. I wouldn’t complain if that were the pick though.
2. Denver Broncos- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
I think Peterson is the best overall player in this draft, regardless of position. Denver could probably use front seven help on the defensive line, but Champ Bailey isn’t getting any younger, and Parrish Cox may be going to prison (look it up for more details). Peterson can come in and start immediately, and he also gives Denver a huge weapon in the punt return game. Is it a risk to put the number two overall pick in on kick returns? Sure, but it’s also bound to bring some reward when he potentially changes a loss to a win with a return TD. The only other players I consider here are Da’Quan Bowers or Robert Quinn. I skip both because I rate Peterson higher, and all three are even needs at this point. Plus he has a clean injury record, so it’s a no-brainer.
3. Buffalo Bills- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
I make this pick with some trepidation. I’m one of the few still a bit on the fence about Miller. While he improved this year, I still worry that he is more of a one-dimensional speed rusher than a complete prospect. I thought about Robert Quinn here, but I think Buffalo does not want to risk drafting another transition player who will be learning to play with his hand off the ground in a 3-4. Miller proved this year he can drop into coverage, and he’s played in a hybrid defense like this. Plus he’s good enough to play SLB if the Bills do move to more 4-3 looks. Don’t believe the hype of people saying ‘they have Merriman and Kelsay, they don’t need an upgrade on the OLB spot’. I think that’s precisely why they need an upgrade, as neither of those players strikes fear into opposing offenses any more.
4. Cincinnati Bengals- AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Gabbert and Newton are still on the board, and the Bengals need a long term option at QB even if Palmer decides to come back, but I just think it’s still not worth the risk here. I’d rather take a player like Green, and now you have a potentially lethal group of pass catching options with the late surging Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley in the slot, Chad Johnson potentially staying, and a healthy Germaine Gresham at TE. I really have a hard time splitting hairs between Jones and Green as I really like both. I think Jones is the best blocking WR I have seen since Hines Ward, but Green just has a feel for the position that can’t be taught and he will be a star in time. If I’m Palmer, I’d be rushing back to play with this cast of weapons to throw to, as you won’t find another team as loaded with young talent on the skill positions as they are. If they did go for Gabbert, I wouldn’t argue too much. I would argue if it’s Newton though, more on that later. If Cincinnati went with a DE like Bowers or Quinn, I would also not argue one bit.
5. Arizona Cardinals- Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
I absolutely love Robert Quinn, and I’m confident he can make the transition to OLB in a 3-4 and make a huge impact for this Cardinals team. Arizona is loaded on the defensive line, but they’ve been missing that true rush OLB for some time now. Quinn can provide that, and it’s all he will be asked to provide. With a sleeper player I liked previously (O’Brien Schofield) developing on the other side, this Cardinals front seven could very quickly be one of the most dangerous in all of the NFL. It doesn’t matter who is QB’ing, as they will be in ever game if this develops like I think it can. Drafting Newton or Gabbert here doesn’t make much sense to me. The Cardinals drafted two developmental QBs last year, they don’t need a third. They need a veteran like Palmer or Bulger in here instead.
6. Cleveland Browns- Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
I’m one of the few apparently who really think that Bowers will be an excellent pass rusher at the next level. What I like best is he’s a stout run defender as well, so he’s a two-way player worthy of a top ten pick. The only thing that makes me think this will not happen is all of the bad press about how his knee may be a long term issue. As someone who has a knee that went from something simple being cleaned out to it now being a lifelong problem, I can see why a team may be skeptical to invest such a large chunk of money in a player with this issue. But I am going to assume it’s fine until we all see otherwise, and in this case, Bowers is a steal. The Browns could use a top notch WR talent like Julio Jones, but as long suffering Browns and DDA fan Danimal pointed out, Cleveland only has two defensive linemen under contract right now. So of it’s not Bowers, it’s Quinn if he’s here, or it may even be Nick Fairley (although I would pass on Fairley at this point due to the risk).
7. San Francisco 49ers- Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Once again I make this pick with trepidation. While I like Gabbert, and see the potential, it’s just that: potential. Do not believe for one second he’s in the league of Sam Bradford. Everyone wants to compare this year’s QBs to Bradford or Ryan or Flacco. The closest one I would compare them to is Flacco, but he went in the late teens, not in the top 10. Bradford was always a QB I said would be a star. His accuracy and ability to throw people open superseded any offensive scheme he played in. You can’t teach that. And that’s something I don’t see in any of these QBs this year. Gabbert has the least flaws though, and he fits well in a WC style offense that Harbaugh is more than likely to run. Plus, Gabbert has the athleticism and ability to throw on the move, which we have seen Harbaugh do in his days at Stanford. It’s the best case scenario, and it’s finally to the point where I think the risk balances with the reward. If everyone else in the media is right, and Gabbert is gone by this pick, then I think a corner like Prince Amukamara is the best choice. Or if Quinn were available, he’s a solid pick as well.
8. Tennessee Titans- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
I think this is the highest I would feel comfortable taking Fairley, and I did a good bit of thinking before I put pen to paper here. It’s a solid fit, and what makes me choose Fairley here is his college positional coach Tracy Rocker is the new DL coach for the Titans. Rocker obviously did something right to get the most out of Fairley this year, and having someone he’s comfortable with makes me think he will be more likely to succeed. But I am saying this with hesitation as I think he’s got the highest ‘boom or bust’ potential of these top ten picks. If he can learn to play at the next level with the same quickness, but with better pad level, he will be what this defense has desperately missed since they had a motivated Albert Haynesworth. I know Newton is still here and Tennessee needs a QB, but they have the same player on their roster in Vince Young, They will not make that same mistake twice, and will look for a prospect with a better value for the position in the second round.
9. Dallas Cowboys- Tyron Smith, OT, USC
I know some of you will immediately point out how I have said Gabe Carimi is my favorite OT in this draft, but hear me out on this one. While I do like Carimi slightly better, I do think Smith has as good of a floor as him but a higher ceiling as well. So I am going a bit on potential here, and because Smith will be asked to line up at a position he is confident playing in the right tackle spot. Dallas has a good number of options here with top notch players available at their three greatest positions of need (CB, DE, OT). I rate Smith slightly higher in the need department, and on par with someone like Amukamara at CB or J.J. Watt of Wisconsin at DE. This will be the start of rebuilding the Cowboys OL with some youth and talent at both tackle spots now.
10. Washington Redskins- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
I would run to the podium with the card tat this point, as Jones is a flat out steal. I thought long and hard about drafting him four overall, and at six, and at eight, so I cannot pass on him here at the ten spot. Due to years of incompetence in the draft room, the Redskins have needs all over their roster. Cam Newton is a possibility since he has the skills to roll out and throw on the run that Shanahan likes in his QBs, but I just feel Jones is a better overall NFL prospect. He will immediately be their number one receiver, and I think Jones will be in the top 10-15 WRs in the league within the next three years. If not Jones, then a DE like J.J. Watt would make an awful lot of sense here.
11. Houston Texans- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
I will always agree that a very good pass rush makes up for a weak secondary, so going for a rush OLB here like Aldon Smith would actually make sense. But when comparing where I feel these players rate value wise, I can’t pass on a secondary need in the secondary (get it? Yeah, that was weak). This would make for back to back first round CB selections for the Texans, but I think it’s warranted based on how poorly they played last year. Wade Phillips will make a difference, but it’s a big issue considering this team really doesn’t have the horses to run the 3-4 defense. Having said that, they have talented players that should fit, and I think getting an immediate starting corner of Amukamara’s talent is necessary when playing the Colts twice a year. Amukamara is a value at this point of the first round, and I could very easily see him go as high as number seven overall. If Prince is not the man here, then Aldon Smith does make sense and even Baylor NT Phil Taylor would fit probably the most glaring need on this transitioning defense (although he’s third on this list if all were available).
12. Minnesota Vikings- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Sure, I am probably one of the only mock drafts you will find with Newton going this low. But if I am honest with myself, I’d have him go even lower, probably in the second round. I look at Newton very much how I looked at Tim Tebow last year. I just don’t see him as a successful NFL QB. It has nothing to do with the off-the-field stuff, although that doesn’t help; it has everything to do with his on the field ability to transition to a pro-style QB. I think it’s the chic thing to compare him to Vick, but I think that’s not a great thing as Vick is exactly what Newton may be. He’s potentially good enough to get you to the playoffs, but that’s it. And even that is with a very strong cast around him. I just don’t see it in him, and it’s a huge risk taking him this high. I actually prefer Ryan Mallet, but with a somewhat porous OL, Minnesota needs a QB who can escape and hopefully make plays on the move. It’s a decent situation for him to go to, as there is a strong running game in place, so he won’t be asked to do too much right away. Going through progressive reads and putting the ball where it needs to be accurately will never be things Newton can do. Hopefully he proves me and other doubters wrong, but I am sticking strongly to this assessment until I see it. Personally, I would rather take a DT like Corey Liuget, a DE like Aldon Smith, a CB like Jimmy Smith, or an OT like Gabe Carimi. But I will weight need, with positional value, with some potential here and make take the plunge while holding my breath. And as a Bears fan, I secretly hope this happens and he’s as bad as I think so that it’s one less team to worry about in the division.
13. Detroit Lions- Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
I’m probably making a mistake here based on the fact that I don’t really know any of the history of Smith’s apparent ‘off-the-field’ issues. I’m going strictly based on the talent of this player and the glaring hole in the Lions secondary at the CB position. I think if Smith is a ‘clean prospect’, he’s potentially going in the top ten, and may even go higher than Amukamara. But weighing the risk, it’s worth it at this point as I think he can make a bigger impact than a DE or OT for the Lions. Those are positions that can be addressed later or in free agency if that ever occurs. Smith is very physical and is great at jamming guys at the line of scrimmage. It’s perfect for a young Lions team with an outstanding DL, as it will slow the passing routes up just enough to let those big guys get to the QB. Scary to admit it, but the Lions are starting to look VERY good. They just need to develop that finisher’s mentality, and they could be a force to be reckoned with.
14. St. Louis Rams- Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
I almost picked Liuget before I picked Fairley from the DT group as I know you are at the very least getting a high motor player with almost as much impact potential in Corey Liuget. Liuget is slightly undersized, but he’s quick, and his initial penetration is what causes him to be so effective. The Rams would love to see Green or Jones fall here, and I could actually see them making a move up to try to get one (which I wholeheartedly support), but neither will be available. So the Rams are better off going with a DT, a DE, or even a CB if Jimmy Smith is still available. I think Liuget may end up making a quicker impact than the other two DTs picked above him simply because he’s coming in to a better situation with some pass rushing talent already there on the outside in Chris Long and George Selvie. He’s the ideal three technique, and I’d love to see the Bears make a move for him, but this is pretty high to move up and they have to get at least to this spot to get him.
15. Miami Dolphins- Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas
I know most of you are probably wondering what changed my mind on Mallet considering I was not that high no him before. I think what has changed my mind slightly is the fact that he just has a much better base to work with than the other QBs in this draft. He is very limited athletically, but this is the perfect fit for him. Mallet is a pocket passer who needs some time, and he can pick a defense apart. He has the throwing ability you find in a franchise level QB, so with a good OL like the Dolphins have in place, he fits perfectly. Yes, Miami could use a center like Mike Pouncey, but I don’t think they will go with OL over the QB like they did three years ago with Jake Long over Matt Ryan. They made that choice then, which I still defend and think was the right choice, to make a selection like this possible. With the value of players left on the board, based on what the Dolphins are lacking, this just makes too much sense to me. I understand that Miami has no starting caliber RBs under contract right now, and Mark Ingram would be a great idea, but good RBs can be had in free agency or in rounds three and onward. I’d much rather pick Mallet, sign a free agent like Darren Sproles or DeAngelo Williams and get a veteran OC, then trying to fill those spots at this point in the draft. This is where the risk is worth the reward. I will also say this though: It would not surprise me one bit to see Mallet go higher or much, much lower. This QB class is really up and down and every team probably looks at every prospect very differently.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars- Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
While I slightly prefer J.J. Watt, I think Smith is a better fit for this defense. There is more potential there from a pass rushing perspective, although Watt is a much better run defender. The Jags desperately need someone who can really bend the edge and get after the passer, and with a solid DT group and a healthy Aaron Kampman coming back, Smith will fit in very nicely into their DL rotation. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Jacksonville go with a QB they like to develop over the next couple of years while they run out the David Gerrard, but they have a team that can win now, so this is not as pressing a need in my opinion. If Smith is not here, and DE is the choice, than Cameron Jordan, J.J. Watt, and Ryan Kerrigan would all be very good fits as well and I would not argue at all with any of those guys.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Mock Draft is on its way!!
Sorry for all of the delays ladies and gents, I've been sitting on these past few posts for a month, but I promise to have a mock draft up by the end of the week. I will more than likely go through three rounds, and only do one mock draft this year as nothing will be changing between now and the draft.
I will also be covering the draft LIVE on all three days, so remember to stop in, post some comments, and enjoy the fun.
As always, feel free to share with your friends, and there is now an easier way to share entries at the bottom of each post (or at least from what Blogger tells me, I have no clue).
I will also be covering the draft LIVE on all three days, so remember to stop in, post some comments, and enjoy the fun.
As always, feel free to share with your friends, and there is now an easier way to share entries at the bottom of each post (or at least from what Blogger tells me, I have no clue).
Defensive Backs
I’m combining these as I don’t think there are enough safeties worth mentioning to break them into their own section. The cornerback class on the other hand, has some real star potential and also has very good depth. The one player who I think is potentially the best overall player available is LSU’s Patrick Peterson. I know most of you have probably read about how no CB has ever been taken with the first pick overall, but I think this is the year where all of the ‘history’ of events is thrown out. This draft is taking place while there is a lockout going on and the threat of an impending rookie salary wage scale. Because of that, I think drafting strategies will change and I think teams will start to pay less attention to positional value based on contract numbers and just grab the best player available at a position of need. Peterson has everything you want in an elite shut-down corner. He will start from day one, and if a team wants to risk it, I let him return punts as well because he’s so dangerous doing this. I think he’s the best corner I’ve seen to come out since Deion. Yes, Revis is great, but I didn’t think he’d be as good as he is when he left college. Peterson, to me, has everything to be great and I expect it. He should not make it out of the top five picks, and if I am drafting in the top three, it will be a very difficult argument to get me to take someone other than him if he’s on the board still. After Peterson, there are two guys who I think will be fantastic immediate starters. Prince Amukamara of Nebraska is a polished corner who can play on or off man coverage. He’s played in a pro-style defense under Bo Pelini, and he has proven he has the athleticism to turn and run with NFL WRs. The only thing that makes me hesitate a bit about him is his poor game against OSU WR Justin Blackmon this season. Blackmon absolutely torched him more than once, and it made me worry about his catch up speed after seeing that game (although the combine proved he has plenty when he ran a 4.39 40). I’m willing to say it’s a one game thing, but it’s still in the back of my mind and may sway me to consider the next guy as the second best corner. Colorado’s Jimmy Smith is suffering right now from a tarnished image with off-the-field character concerns. I obviously do not have access to this, so all I can judge is his on the field play. Throw Smith’s stats out as no one would throw his way. He’s one of the best press-man cover corners in this draft, and he has the size to absolutely abuse guys at the line of scrimmage. He visibly frustrated top-10 WR AJ Green when they played each other because he was in his face and would not let him break cleanly into his routes. If a team is willing to accept the character concerns, Jimmy Smith has top 10 talent you can probably get from picks 12-26. I hope he keeps it on the straight and narrow and uses this as fuel to prove why teams should not have passed on him.
The next tier of guys will be taken in the late first to early second round. Brandon Harris of Miami is a bit slight of build, but he’s got very good technique and plays the position extremely well. I think with some time in the weight room, and time as a nickel corner to start, he’s going to be a very good starting NFL corner. Aaron Williams of Texas is a guy who I think may be better fit at safety because he’s a bit stiff when it comes to turning and running. He’s a big and physical corner though, so teams who covet a player who will press and be physical near the line of scrimmage may like him more at corner than at safety. I actually question his hands a bit after seeing him drop some balls he should catch in games and at the combine. I actually prefer his teammate, Curtis Brown, more so because he can be had more than likely in the mid second to early third round. Brown is most definitely a corner, and he is a smooth athlete who has a nose for the ball. Two other guys who are more ‘potential’ players with some other concerns as Virginia’s Ras-I Dowling and New Mexico St’s Davon House. Dowling comes with a long list of injury concerns, and House has some injury concerns as well as a slippage in performance this past season. Both are bigger corners who can play the press and would be ideal Cover-2 corners, thus why you may have seen the Bears have looked into both prospects extensively. The Bears took an injury risk CB previously in Zac Bowman, so they may do the same here, although both these guys could very well be gone in the top portion of the second round (making that a moot point). A guy I really like, who might be available in the third round, is Virginia Tech corner Rashad Carmichael. I don’t think Carmichael is getting the buzz he should, much like his former teammate Brandon Flowers a few years back (who is an outstanding CB for the Chiefs), and he may be a complete steal when we go back and look at this daft a few years from now.
Want one guy I really like, who is probably a 5th round or onward corner? Richard Sherman of Stanford. He was a WR previously, and has only played corner for two years now (I think, might be three). So he’s still raw and learning the subtle nuances of playing on that side of the ball But he has everything I want in a corner for the Bears, and he’s someone who can be had late and can develop over the next few years. You can’t teach his size and athleticism, and I love his aggressiveness and ability to make plays on the ball in the air from his time playing on offense. He would be an exceptional special teams player as well, and he’s the bigger young boundary corner the Bears currently do not have on their roster (Tillman is aging and Bowman appears to have worn out his welcome).
The section on safeties should be short and sweet! The only safety who has a chance of being a first round pick is Rahim Moore of UCLA. Moore is a pure cover Free Safety, and is not going to be an in-the-box type of physical presence. What Moore is best at doing is playing the deep centerfield position, reading the QB, and making plays on the ball. He is very good at getting picks, and for a team like the Jets, he’s ideal. I could very easily see him sliding into the top half of the second round though as well. Another less heralded guy who I really like is Iowa’s Tyler Sash. He’s not the biggest or fastest safety, but he is quick in his breaks, he accelerates well, and he is a very smart football player. On the right defense, he’s going to be dangerous, and I’d look at him as early as the late second round.
As for the in-the-box Strong Safety types, there isn’t much there either. Quinton Carter of Oklahoma is the best in my opinion, but he’s limited when it comes to coverage. For teams looking at a physical presence who can play the run well and cover to an extent, Carter is a solid value in the late third to fourth round. A guy I loved previously on tape is Robert Sands of West Virginia. While I still like Sands, I am a bit concerned that he won’t make the transition at this spot in the NFL. Sands is very tall for a defensive back (6’4”), and it shows when he is asked to change directions quickly as he struggles to drop his hips and plant/go quickly. What he has shown in games though is he is an absolute head hunter in the run game, and his size makes him an intimidating presence. In fact, I think he might even be a nice project for a Cover-2 team at WLB, as he can put some size on and learn to play closer to the line. As an OLB, he has great coverage skills. As a Safety, he has subpar coverage skills.
There are some other guys like Clemson’s De’Andre McDaniel and North Carolina’s Deunta Williams that also bear mentioning, but they aren’t guys who I think will make a big impact at the next level.
The next tier of guys will be taken in the late first to early second round. Brandon Harris of Miami is a bit slight of build, but he’s got very good technique and plays the position extremely well. I think with some time in the weight room, and time as a nickel corner to start, he’s going to be a very good starting NFL corner. Aaron Williams of Texas is a guy who I think may be better fit at safety because he’s a bit stiff when it comes to turning and running. He’s a big and physical corner though, so teams who covet a player who will press and be physical near the line of scrimmage may like him more at corner than at safety. I actually question his hands a bit after seeing him drop some balls he should catch in games and at the combine. I actually prefer his teammate, Curtis Brown, more so because he can be had more than likely in the mid second to early third round. Brown is most definitely a corner, and he is a smooth athlete who has a nose for the ball. Two other guys who are more ‘potential’ players with some other concerns as Virginia’s Ras-I Dowling and New Mexico St’s Davon House. Dowling comes with a long list of injury concerns, and House has some injury concerns as well as a slippage in performance this past season. Both are bigger corners who can play the press and would be ideal Cover-2 corners, thus why you may have seen the Bears have looked into both prospects extensively. The Bears took an injury risk CB previously in Zac Bowman, so they may do the same here, although both these guys could very well be gone in the top portion of the second round (making that a moot point). A guy I really like, who might be available in the third round, is Virginia Tech corner Rashad Carmichael. I don’t think Carmichael is getting the buzz he should, much like his former teammate Brandon Flowers a few years back (who is an outstanding CB for the Chiefs), and he may be a complete steal when we go back and look at this daft a few years from now.
Want one guy I really like, who is probably a 5th round or onward corner? Richard Sherman of Stanford. He was a WR previously, and has only played corner for two years now (I think, might be three). So he’s still raw and learning the subtle nuances of playing on that side of the ball But he has everything I want in a corner for the Bears, and he’s someone who can be had late and can develop over the next few years. You can’t teach his size and athleticism, and I love his aggressiveness and ability to make plays on the ball in the air from his time playing on offense. He would be an exceptional special teams player as well, and he’s the bigger young boundary corner the Bears currently do not have on their roster (Tillman is aging and Bowman appears to have worn out his welcome).
The section on safeties should be short and sweet! The only safety who has a chance of being a first round pick is Rahim Moore of UCLA. Moore is a pure cover Free Safety, and is not going to be an in-the-box type of physical presence. What Moore is best at doing is playing the deep centerfield position, reading the QB, and making plays on the ball. He is very good at getting picks, and for a team like the Jets, he’s ideal. I could very easily see him sliding into the top half of the second round though as well. Another less heralded guy who I really like is Iowa’s Tyler Sash. He’s not the biggest or fastest safety, but he is quick in his breaks, he accelerates well, and he is a very smart football player. On the right defense, he’s going to be dangerous, and I’d look at him as early as the late second round.
As for the in-the-box Strong Safety types, there isn’t much there either. Quinton Carter of Oklahoma is the best in my opinion, but he’s limited when it comes to coverage. For teams looking at a physical presence who can play the run well and cover to an extent, Carter is a solid value in the late third to fourth round. A guy I loved previously on tape is Robert Sands of West Virginia. While I still like Sands, I am a bit concerned that he won’t make the transition at this spot in the NFL. Sands is very tall for a defensive back (6’4”), and it shows when he is asked to change directions quickly as he struggles to drop his hips and plant/go quickly. What he has shown in games though is he is an absolute head hunter in the run game, and his size makes him an intimidating presence. In fact, I think he might even be a nice project for a Cover-2 team at WLB, as he can put some size on and learn to play closer to the line. As an OLB, he has great coverage skills. As a Safety, he has subpar coverage skills.
There are some other guys like Clemson’s De’Andre McDaniel and North Carolina’s Deunta Williams that also bear mentioning, but they aren’t guys who I think will make a big impact at the next level.
Linebacker
If you are in need of a linebacker this year, unfortunately you may leave unhappy as this is not a good year for talent at this position. I have already covered some of the rush OLB guys in the DE section, and those will be the primary ones who will have first round grades. As for true LBs, only two have first round grades in my opinion (with a third on the very fringe). Texas A&M’s Von Miller was someone who I left last year saying ‘prove it to me’ as I felt he was a one trick pony that used nothing but speed on the corner to rush the passer. I think he really proved himself well and showed that he worked hard on improving his overall game. He looked much more comfortable dropping back in coverage and he showed that he has learned how to engage blockers, fight with his hands, and make plays with more than speed. Miller is an extremely clean prospect who will continue to get better as a Pro, and I don’t see him sliding any further past the Cardinals with pick five overall. The next one with a first round grade is UCLA’s Akeem Ayers. I really liked Ayers last season, and once again this year he really stood out. He’s a guy who can fit well as a SLB in a 4-3 or as a rush OLB in a 3-4. He can get after the passer well, but he’s also affective dropping into coverage. I know he had a disappointing combine performance, but he just makes plays when you watch him in games. Because of that I don’t think he makes it out of the first round as someone will realize he’s better than his measurable numbers may indicate. The third LB on the fringe of the first, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see move into the first round when it’s all said and done is Illinois’ Martez Wilson. What may keep Wilson out of the first round are two things: his neck surgery from last year and the fact that he’s not stayed at one position for more than one season. The second issue is not really his problem, as Illinois has changed defensive schemes several times during his tenure. I also think that this somewhat plays well in regards to his value though, as he’s shown the versatility to play several positions. I actually don’t know what Wilson’s best position is at the next level. What I do know is he is extremely fast and athletic, and he has the size to hold up in the middle or the outside. If he does fall into the second round, it won’t be very far.
After these guys, the next level of players will go anywhere from the mid second round onward, and many of them really aren’t guys who I think will be immediate contributors. UNC’s Bruce Carter is probably the next best prospect and will be a solid SLB in the NFL. I think he can be had in the mid to late second round and could start right away. A guy I have liked for several years but really took a large step back this year was Michigan St’s Greg Jones. I think teams attacked his weaknesses this year, and got bodies on him quicker, which he struggled with. I really like Jones’ instincts and ability to diagnose plays and get there quickly. His slow times at the combine and stiffness in the drills mean that his ability to read his keys quickly helps him make up for this lack of athleticism. I think he’s probably best fit inside a 3-4 where he can be covered up a bit or play next to a more athletic inside guy who can help in coverage. Dontay Moch of Nevada is definitely this year’s workout warrior. He absolutely killed the combine, especially considering they had him listed as a defensive lineman. My problem with Moch is not his speed, as he has this in bunches; it’s his ability to change directions quickly. It’s why he played DE in college as he will struggle to cover as a LB. But his speed and explosive power are going to intrigue some team to take him in the second and work with him to hopefully develop an edge rushing terror.
Two underrated guys who I think will be absolute steals are Miami’s Colin McCarthy and LSU’s Kelvin Sheppard. Sheppard is a true MLB and can play in a 3-4 or a 4-3. He’s stout, takes on blocks with power, sheds, and makes plays. He has the size, strength, and short area quickness to play right away and he might be available as late as the third round (which would be a steal). McCarthy is very similar but I think he’s a bit more versatile. He’s plays SLB and MLB, and I’m not sure what his best position will be in the NFL. What I do know is that while my coaching staff figures that out, he will be an absolutely ace on special teams. He’s the type of high effort and high energy guy who at worst will annually be one of the top tacklers on special teams and will be able to provide flexibility in backing up all three LB spots.
After these guys, the next level of players will go anywhere from the mid second round onward, and many of them really aren’t guys who I think will be immediate contributors. UNC’s Bruce Carter is probably the next best prospect and will be a solid SLB in the NFL. I think he can be had in the mid to late second round and could start right away. A guy I have liked for several years but really took a large step back this year was Michigan St’s Greg Jones. I think teams attacked his weaknesses this year, and got bodies on him quicker, which he struggled with. I really like Jones’ instincts and ability to diagnose plays and get there quickly. His slow times at the combine and stiffness in the drills mean that his ability to read his keys quickly helps him make up for this lack of athleticism. I think he’s probably best fit inside a 3-4 where he can be covered up a bit or play next to a more athletic inside guy who can help in coverage. Dontay Moch of Nevada is definitely this year’s workout warrior. He absolutely killed the combine, especially considering they had him listed as a defensive lineman. My problem with Moch is not his speed, as he has this in bunches; it’s his ability to change directions quickly. It’s why he played DE in college as he will struggle to cover as a LB. But his speed and explosive power are going to intrigue some team to take him in the second and work with him to hopefully develop an edge rushing terror.
Two underrated guys who I think will be absolute steals are Miami’s Colin McCarthy and LSU’s Kelvin Sheppard. Sheppard is a true MLB and can play in a 3-4 or a 4-3. He’s stout, takes on blocks with power, sheds, and makes plays. He has the size, strength, and short area quickness to play right away and he might be available as late as the third round (which would be a steal). McCarthy is very similar but I think he’s a bit more versatile. He’s plays SLB and MLB, and I’m not sure what his best position will be in the NFL. What I do know is that while my coaching staff figures that out, he will be an absolutely ace on special teams. He’s the type of high effort and high energy guy who at worst will annually be one of the top tacklers on special teams and will be able to provide flexibility in backing up all three LB spots.
Defensive Tackle
I may have said last year was the best group of DTs I had ever seen, and that probably still holds true considering that I still strongly believe Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will be two of the best DTs in the NFL for the next 10 years. This year’s crop may not have that high of a grade, but they make up for it with amazing depth. I think that this is one position where a team can get a quality starter at this position into and through the third round. Now, that may seem like a no brainer to most, but I’m not talking about one or two per round in the first three rounds. I’m talking about 10-15 very solid starters that contribute immediately. I think Suh is proof positive that an elite prospect at this position is worth drafting high no matter what. They can make a huge impact immediately, and it’s an easy position to transition to from college to the NFL. So with the lockout, it’s a position that I think will move up in importance.
And before I start, don’t think that just because I am posting this now I am jumping on the bandwagon of recent reports and mock drafts. I will use my good friend Tom as proof that I have been saying these same things about the following prospects for months now. It’s just that I was doing it over email and not beating everyone else to this. I think the best defensive line prospect in this draft is Alabama DT/DE Marcell Dareus. Why do I like him more than say Da’Quan Bowers or Nick Fairley? It’s because of his versatility and overall body of work (combined with his measureables). I think Dareus is the safest pick for number one as it’s an impact position that transitions quickly to the pro game, and he can fit both 3-4 and 4-3 defenses. With new Panthers head coach Ron Rivera having experience in both as a defensive coordinator, Dareus makes perfect sense as someone who can slide down and be an impact pass rushing 3-technique DT or a stout and powerful 5-technique. Dareus is a game changer who can manhandle offensive lineman when he gets his hands on them, and he can rush the passer well for a man of his size. Everyone’s favorite DT this season has been Auburn’s Nick Fairley. I think those claiming Bowers is a one-year wonder should look no further than Fairley. He’s not even been on the radar. I have seen Auburn games before this season and I never found a single note on Fairley, which means he showed nothing prior to this year. That concerns me a great deal as I just don’t know if he has the consistent motor and work ethic to be worth a top five pick. I will admit that Fairley can be dominant when he wants to. He’s a very good pass rusher and has excellent quickness for a guy his size. My biggest problem with him, which is what I discussed with Tom several months ago, is his tendency to play far too high. At the college level, he could swim past over matched guards and make plays. At the pro level, if he shows his numbers like I saw on tape, he will catch a 6in punch to the chest from the likes of Logan Mankins or Carl Nicks and he will find himself on his backside. Everyone is athletic at the NFL level. He’s going to have to work on his technique and consistency to really make an impact in the NFL, and it’s what would make me hesitate to take him until picks 8-15. Even then, I’m going to be on him constantly in the offseason to ensure I am getting return on my draft investment.
After the top two guys, the next tier of DTs could go anywhere from the mid first and onward; and a lot of it depends on if a team is willing to look past certain flaws that each of these guys has. Illini DT Corey Liuget is a guy who grew on me as the season wore on. He’s still a bit raw and has room and time to fill out more physically, but he is very quick and has very good hands when fighting for position on the inside. I think he will make an immediate impact as a pass rusher, and with time, will be a solid two-way player. He also has some ability to play the 3-4 DE as well, but I think he’s better fit as a 3-technique DT. Another guy in this same category is Temple DT Muhammad Wilkerson. I think he’s probably better fit as a 5-technique because of his length, but he can fit either positions well. He’s got very good athleticism for a man his size and he flat out dominated on a defense where no one else was helping him out. Another guy who some may now label as a ‘workout warrior’ after smashing the record at the combine for bench reps at 225lbs is Oregon St’s Stephen Paea. You will remember from last year’s coverage how much I liked Paea, so it was good to see some of the things validated that appeared on tape. I think too many people who do not know him as a prospect will think the bench is what got him drafted high despite him having a knee injury and not being able to do much more than bench right now, but this is far from the case. Paea is very quick off the ball and makes his living on disrupting the flow of a play by getting into the backfield quickly. If he can’t shoot the gap, he can overpower a guard and force them into disrupting running and passing lanes. I would personally love to see him in a Bears uniform should there be a run on the top OTs.
The third tier are guys who maybe did not live up to expectations this season, but could make extremely good values in the second or third round. UNC’s Marvin Austin, like Quinn, was suspended for the entire season; which is a shame as I felt the one thing he needed was to prove he can consistently dominate game in and game out. I think regardless of this, his performance at the Shrine Game and his amazing performance at the combine should see him go no lower than the mid second round. He’s just too talented to pass up in my opinion. LSU’s Drake Nevis was a guy I said could be a first half of the first round player, but simply did not show the dominance he did the past two years. I’m willing to give him a mulligan though, and if the Bears do get an OT in the first, he’s someone I would see them target hard in the second as he is a great fit in the cover-2 defense. Want another name of a player that fits well into this defense? Jurell Casey of USC. I’m not as big of a fan of Casey as others, as I think he’s just a bit too lazy of a player and it shows in his physique. Having said that, I think if he puts some effort behind his natural talent, he can be a very good starter at the NFL level because of his quick and hands and feet.
What should also be mentioned are the decent amount of true NT prospects in this draft. The best of them all is Baylor’s Phil Taylor. Taylor has a huge lower body and is absolutely impossible to root out of the hole by one guy, and he even handles the double team very well. He has surprisingly decent pass rush moves as well for a guy who will be looked at as a space eating 0-technique nose tackle. I don’t see how he make it past the Chiefs in the first round, and no chance he goes past the Jets. Ole Miss’s Jerell Powe and Hampton’s Kenrick Ellis are also two more guys who should be available in the third round and onward who can help make a difference at the 3-4 NT position. Both have some issues off the field that need to be carefully balanced with what they provide on the field, but it’s simply too difficult to find human beings that are large enough and strong enough to fit this position and do well. Both these guys can contribute and do well, even if it’s in a rotation.
And before I start, don’t think that just because I am posting this now I am jumping on the bandwagon of recent reports and mock drafts. I will use my good friend Tom as proof that I have been saying these same things about the following prospects for months now. It’s just that I was doing it over email and not beating everyone else to this. I think the best defensive line prospect in this draft is Alabama DT/DE Marcell Dareus. Why do I like him more than say Da’Quan Bowers or Nick Fairley? It’s because of his versatility and overall body of work (combined with his measureables). I think Dareus is the safest pick for number one as it’s an impact position that transitions quickly to the pro game, and he can fit both 3-4 and 4-3 defenses. With new Panthers head coach Ron Rivera having experience in both as a defensive coordinator, Dareus makes perfect sense as someone who can slide down and be an impact pass rushing 3-technique DT or a stout and powerful 5-technique. Dareus is a game changer who can manhandle offensive lineman when he gets his hands on them, and he can rush the passer well for a man of his size. Everyone’s favorite DT this season has been Auburn’s Nick Fairley. I think those claiming Bowers is a one-year wonder should look no further than Fairley. He’s not even been on the radar. I have seen Auburn games before this season and I never found a single note on Fairley, which means he showed nothing prior to this year. That concerns me a great deal as I just don’t know if he has the consistent motor and work ethic to be worth a top five pick. I will admit that Fairley can be dominant when he wants to. He’s a very good pass rusher and has excellent quickness for a guy his size. My biggest problem with him, which is what I discussed with Tom several months ago, is his tendency to play far too high. At the college level, he could swim past over matched guards and make plays. At the pro level, if he shows his numbers like I saw on tape, he will catch a 6in punch to the chest from the likes of Logan Mankins or Carl Nicks and he will find himself on his backside. Everyone is athletic at the NFL level. He’s going to have to work on his technique and consistency to really make an impact in the NFL, and it’s what would make me hesitate to take him until picks 8-15. Even then, I’m going to be on him constantly in the offseason to ensure I am getting return on my draft investment.
After the top two guys, the next tier of DTs could go anywhere from the mid first and onward; and a lot of it depends on if a team is willing to look past certain flaws that each of these guys has. Illini DT Corey Liuget is a guy who grew on me as the season wore on. He’s still a bit raw and has room and time to fill out more physically, but he is very quick and has very good hands when fighting for position on the inside. I think he will make an immediate impact as a pass rusher, and with time, will be a solid two-way player. He also has some ability to play the 3-4 DE as well, but I think he’s better fit as a 3-technique DT. Another guy in this same category is Temple DT Muhammad Wilkerson. I think he’s probably better fit as a 5-technique because of his length, but he can fit either positions well. He’s got very good athleticism for a man his size and he flat out dominated on a defense where no one else was helping him out. Another guy who some may now label as a ‘workout warrior’ after smashing the record at the combine for bench reps at 225lbs is Oregon St’s Stephen Paea. You will remember from last year’s coverage how much I liked Paea, so it was good to see some of the things validated that appeared on tape. I think too many people who do not know him as a prospect will think the bench is what got him drafted high despite him having a knee injury and not being able to do much more than bench right now, but this is far from the case. Paea is very quick off the ball and makes his living on disrupting the flow of a play by getting into the backfield quickly. If he can’t shoot the gap, he can overpower a guard and force them into disrupting running and passing lanes. I would personally love to see him in a Bears uniform should there be a run on the top OTs.
The third tier are guys who maybe did not live up to expectations this season, but could make extremely good values in the second or third round. UNC’s Marvin Austin, like Quinn, was suspended for the entire season; which is a shame as I felt the one thing he needed was to prove he can consistently dominate game in and game out. I think regardless of this, his performance at the Shrine Game and his amazing performance at the combine should see him go no lower than the mid second round. He’s just too talented to pass up in my opinion. LSU’s Drake Nevis was a guy I said could be a first half of the first round player, but simply did not show the dominance he did the past two years. I’m willing to give him a mulligan though, and if the Bears do get an OT in the first, he’s someone I would see them target hard in the second as he is a great fit in the cover-2 defense. Want another name of a player that fits well into this defense? Jurell Casey of USC. I’m not as big of a fan of Casey as others, as I think he’s just a bit too lazy of a player and it shows in his physique. Having said that, I think if he puts some effort behind his natural talent, he can be a very good starter at the NFL level because of his quick and hands and feet.
What should also be mentioned are the decent amount of true NT prospects in this draft. The best of them all is Baylor’s Phil Taylor. Taylor has a huge lower body and is absolutely impossible to root out of the hole by one guy, and he even handles the double team very well. He has surprisingly decent pass rush moves as well for a guy who will be looked at as a space eating 0-technique nose tackle. I don’t see how he make it past the Chiefs in the first round, and no chance he goes past the Jets. Ole Miss’s Jerell Powe and Hampton’s Kenrick Ellis are also two more guys who should be available in the third round and onward who can help make a difference at the 3-4 NT position. Both have some issues off the field that need to be carefully balanced with what they provide on the field, but it’s simply too difficult to find human beings that are large enough and strong enough to fit this position and do well. Both these guys can contribute and do well, even if it’s in a rotation.
Defensive End
Technically speaking I could also call this group the DE/Rush LB group, but I figure I will speak to this on each individual prospect. This is definitely one of the more impressive crops of pass rushers to come out in one draft than I have seen in some times. What makes it even more interesting is the scheme diversity of the players in the elite, first round category. There are a handful of edge rushers with the size and strength to hold up as a 5-technique in an odd man front, or move to the left or power end in an even man front, and with that you also have a handful of guys who are rush right ends or rush OLBs in a 3-4. There are even some guys I will cover in the Defensive Tackle section that could be considered as 5-techniques in an odd man front as well, so this is a position group that is loaded with solid talent. In fact, I think teams will get the most value by going early with these players who will contribute immediately in what will be a shortened offseason due to the lockout.
There are two guys who I think are elite level pass rushers that can and should be gone within the top 8 picks, and that’s Clemson’s Da’Quan Bowers and UNC’s Robert Quinn. The most interesting thing to note is both have some question marks surrounding them going into the draft, and it may push them down a few spots lower than they should have gone.
For Bowers, look no further than what I wrote about him last year when watching Clemson games:
Da’Quan Bowers, DE, So- Bowers has a really bright future, and he’s someone I could see who comes out early next year and be in first round consideration. He can rush the passer and is very stout against the run. Next year Bowers needs to show that he can still make an impact once Ricky Sapp is gone (and he will face more double team blocks). What I like most about him is that he is absolutely relentless and never stops moving on a play. So makes more plays on second effort than on talent alone. That’s a dangerous mix when considering an NFL draft prospect
So what I don’t get is the misconception that he is a ‘one year wonder’ as some media outlets are saying. I think saying that his breakout junior season may appear to be this as he had better statistics, but I will argue right back that this is more of a case of a developing prospect learning to put everything together after getting experience. The above speaks volumes to this point exactly. He’s had the natural talent, and he was always a high motor player, he just learned how to put this all together this season. Watch some of the highlights they show of him on NFL network. He does a great job of getting second effort sacks, where he’s either doubled and beats this or he gets cut to the ground, gets up, and still gets the sack. I think he could be the number one overall pick, but his knee surgery really does scare me. I may wait until I see how his pro day goes as it sounds worse than what was released, and I would say this could move him down as low as the 6th pick. As for what position Bowers fits best, I’d be hesitant to say he can fit as a rush OLB, but his pro day could dispel that assessment. I’ve only seen him with his hand down, and that is where I would put him (in an even man front).
If not for making the mistake of accepting improper benefits, Robert Quinn may have something to say about anointing Bowers the top DE in this class. If Quinn had reasonable answers in his interviews with team personnel about what happened, and understands what he lost by making the choices he did, then I don’t think his draft stock will be that adversely affected. I can’t help but remember what I saw on the field in 2009 and that was someone born to rush the passer. Quinn has a natural feel for this part of the game, and he flattens around the corner better than most rush ends I have seen at his age. I think that he tested well enough and showed enough agility that I would be confident saying he could stand up and play rush OLB in a 3-4 as well. Because of that, I don’t see how Quinn makes it out of the top 10 either, regardless of the fact that he did not play last year. Elite pass rushers can make the difference between the cellar and playoffs (just look at the Bears with and without Peppers), and that’s worth more than taking a risk on a QB with ‘potential’.
After these two, the next group falls into the first group of versatile DEs I mentioned previously. What Adrian Clayborn of Iowa, J.J. Watt of Wisconsin, and Cameron Jordan of Cal have in common is that all of them would be very good fits at DE in a 3-4, but can be just as impactful as a left end in a 4-3. Clayborn had a down season this year, coming in with very high expectations from the media and myself based on his 2009 play. I’m not as down on him though as others seem to be as I think some of this has to do with teams scheming away from his side and neutralizing him with their offensive game plan. Clayborn is just a very good two-way DE. He has good size, good strength, and plays the run and pass equally well. Same goes for Watt, who really impressed at the combine. He always looked like an effort guy on film who won battles with his motor, but the combine showed he is much more athletic than most thought and those numbers match his effort as well. I think of any of these DE prospects, the bowl game and combine helped him the most as it confirmed his athleticism and scheme versatility. I think he goes no lower than the 13-15th pick overall, and when he declared many people would have considered that far fetched. Jordan is like Watt in that he is relentless and wins a good number of battles on effort. He also has great measurable numbers though, and what I liked most in what I have seen is his feel for mixing pass rush moves. He knows how to set up tackles with speed to power and vice versa. He’s not a guy who will wow you with double digit sacks, but he’s someone with experience playing the 5-technique position that will be solid against the run and the pass at this position. Like Watt, I doubt he makes it past the middle of the first round. One name you may notice was missing from my early comments, who I have been raving about for the past three years, is Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward. That’s not to say I am down on Heyward and letting this year’s games speak for his body of work. I’m simply saying that I think the other prospects mentioned above have fewer nicks on them than Heyward does. What really affects his value is the fact that he had Tommy John surgery on his elbow at the end of the season. Granted, he’s not an MLB pitcher, so this isn’t that big of a deal but it does affect his draft stock. I think because if this, he’s going to make a steal in the back half of the first round to the early second round. He’s the ideal 5-technique, but could play some 3-technique as well.
The third group of elite guys are the undersized 4-3 DEs who have also shown they can play out of the two point stance. Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue is someone who has grown on me this season. I wasn’t a huge fan of him previously as I felt he was a one trick pony with the speed rush. This year he did a better job of mixing pass rush moves, and also showed he can hang against some of the better tackles in this year’s class. Kerrigan’s motor runs non-stop, and he’s lucky enough to be blessed with solid athleticism to boot. I personally think he fits best as a down rush end, but he definitely showed the ability to learn how to play with his hand off the ground. He should not make it past the Patriots at pick 17 as I think he’s exactly the type of player they need (but he may be gone before then anyway). Aldon Smith of Missouri is a lot like Quinn in that he missed almost the entire 2010 although he was injured. Taking Smith high is banking on his potential, which is higher than some of the other DE’s already mentioned. I’m just worried about where his floor is, and I don’t know if he’s strong enough at the point of attack to hold up as a 4-3 DE unless it’s the right system. Having said all of that, he’s a dynamic pass rusher who also is athletic enough to stand up and rush as an OLB. When all is said and done, someone is going to fall in love with his potential and draft him in the top 12-15 picks, although I would wait until the 15-20 range due to my concerns about how consistent he will be at the next level. Justin Houston of Georgia is very similar as well. He’s a tweener, but he has elite athleticism and speed for someone his size, and teams will fall in love with what they can mold him into. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see a team like the Bears take someone like Houston to play DE in a Cover-2 defense, but I think he’s better fit as a rush OLB on a team like the Ravens or Jets as he just looks a lot like that type of football player.
I’ve saved two of my favorite players for last as I think they are under the radar guys who really should be talked about. Brooks Reed of Arizona will be an outstanding 3-4 rush OLB. He stood out more this season when I watched some Arizona games checking up on his linemate Ricky Elmore, and I came away much more impressed with what Reed has to offer. You will see that places like ESPN Scouts Inc are also singing Reed’s praise, and I’m glad to see this. I’ve just always thought of him as a poor man’s Clay Mathews, and I don’t mean that as a slight either. I think he’s a very similar player; he was overshadowed by other talented teammates and managed to continue to develop and grow based on hard work and effort. Reed is more experienced with game time than Mathews was at this point, and like Mathews, I think Reed will be a better pro than he was a collegian. He will not be the biggest, the fastest, or the most technically sound player on the field but he will fight tooth and nail to make a play. I actually think he could slip to the end of the first round and be paired with Mathews to make what might be the best pair of rush OLBs other than the Steelers duo. I hope that doesn’t happen as that makes for some difficult times for Bears fans moving forward. The other DE is Sam Acho of Texas. I can’t understand why he does not get the respect he should, but I think Acho is going to be a steal no matter where he goes. He’s a very intelligent player, and he’s just a well rounded prospect. I don’t think he’s a first round talent, but he’s someone I would take in the second round and be very pleased with my return on the investment. I actually thought Acho had more potential than his teammate last year in Sergio Kindle. Since he got hurt last year and never played for the Ravens (and may not ever play again due to a skull injury he suffered). In fact, if he’s there when Baltimore picks in the second round, I think he’d be an ideal fit in that defense. I think he’s athletic enough to stand and play in the 3-4, and he can play a traditional 4-3 DE position on a team that values speed and edge rushing more than size and run stuffing.
There are two guys who I think are elite level pass rushers that can and should be gone within the top 8 picks, and that’s Clemson’s Da’Quan Bowers and UNC’s Robert Quinn. The most interesting thing to note is both have some question marks surrounding them going into the draft, and it may push them down a few spots lower than they should have gone.
For Bowers, look no further than what I wrote about him last year when watching Clemson games:
Da’Quan Bowers, DE, So- Bowers has a really bright future, and he’s someone I could see who comes out early next year and be in first round consideration. He can rush the passer and is very stout against the run. Next year Bowers needs to show that he can still make an impact once Ricky Sapp is gone (and he will face more double team blocks). What I like most about him is that he is absolutely relentless and never stops moving on a play. So makes more plays on second effort than on talent alone. That’s a dangerous mix when considering an NFL draft prospect
So what I don’t get is the misconception that he is a ‘one year wonder’ as some media outlets are saying. I think saying that his breakout junior season may appear to be this as he had better statistics, but I will argue right back that this is more of a case of a developing prospect learning to put everything together after getting experience. The above speaks volumes to this point exactly. He’s had the natural talent, and he was always a high motor player, he just learned how to put this all together this season. Watch some of the highlights they show of him on NFL network. He does a great job of getting second effort sacks, where he’s either doubled and beats this or he gets cut to the ground, gets up, and still gets the sack. I think he could be the number one overall pick, but his knee surgery really does scare me. I may wait until I see how his pro day goes as it sounds worse than what was released, and I would say this could move him down as low as the 6th pick. As for what position Bowers fits best, I’d be hesitant to say he can fit as a rush OLB, but his pro day could dispel that assessment. I’ve only seen him with his hand down, and that is where I would put him (in an even man front).
If not for making the mistake of accepting improper benefits, Robert Quinn may have something to say about anointing Bowers the top DE in this class. If Quinn had reasonable answers in his interviews with team personnel about what happened, and understands what he lost by making the choices he did, then I don’t think his draft stock will be that adversely affected. I can’t help but remember what I saw on the field in 2009 and that was someone born to rush the passer. Quinn has a natural feel for this part of the game, and he flattens around the corner better than most rush ends I have seen at his age. I think that he tested well enough and showed enough agility that I would be confident saying he could stand up and play rush OLB in a 3-4 as well. Because of that, I don’t see how Quinn makes it out of the top 10 either, regardless of the fact that he did not play last year. Elite pass rushers can make the difference between the cellar and playoffs (just look at the Bears with and without Peppers), and that’s worth more than taking a risk on a QB with ‘potential’.
After these two, the next group falls into the first group of versatile DEs I mentioned previously. What Adrian Clayborn of Iowa, J.J. Watt of Wisconsin, and Cameron Jordan of Cal have in common is that all of them would be very good fits at DE in a 3-4, but can be just as impactful as a left end in a 4-3. Clayborn had a down season this year, coming in with very high expectations from the media and myself based on his 2009 play. I’m not as down on him though as others seem to be as I think some of this has to do with teams scheming away from his side and neutralizing him with their offensive game plan. Clayborn is just a very good two-way DE. He has good size, good strength, and plays the run and pass equally well. Same goes for Watt, who really impressed at the combine. He always looked like an effort guy on film who won battles with his motor, but the combine showed he is much more athletic than most thought and those numbers match his effort as well. I think of any of these DE prospects, the bowl game and combine helped him the most as it confirmed his athleticism and scheme versatility. I think he goes no lower than the 13-15th pick overall, and when he declared many people would have considered that far fetched. Jordan is like Watt in that he is relentless and wins a good number of battles on effort. He also has great measurable numbers though, and what I liked most in what I have seen is his feel for mixing pass rush moves. He knows how to set up tackles with speed to power and vice versa. He’s not a guy who will wow you with double digit sacks, but he’s someone with experience playing the 5-technique position that will be solid against the run and the pass at this position. Like Watt, I doubt he makes it past the middle of the first round. One name you may notice was missing from my early comments, who I have been raving about for the past three years, is Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward. That’s not to say I am down on Heyward and letting this year’s games speak for his body of work. I’m simply saying that I think the other prospects mentioned above have fewer nicks on them than Heyward does. What really affects his value is the fact that he had Tommy John surgery on his elbow at the end of the season. Granted, he’s not an MLB pitcher, so this isn’t that big of a deal but it does affect his draft stock. I think because if this, he’s going to make a steal in the back half of the first round to the early second round. He’s the ideal 5-technique, but could play some 3-technique as well.
The third group of elite guys are the undersized 4-3 DEs who have also shown they can play out of the two point stance. Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue is someone who has grown on me this season. I wasn’t a huge fan of him previously as I felt he was a one trick pony with the speed rush. This year he did a better job of mixing pass rush moves, and also showed he can hang against some of the better tackles in this year’s class. Kerrigan’s motor runs non-stop, and he’s lucky enough to be blessed with solid athleticism to boot. I personally think he fits best as a down rush end, but he definitely showed the ability to learn how to play with his hand off the ground. He should not make it past the Patriots at pick 17 as I think he’s exactly the type of player they need (but he may be gone before then anyway). Aldon Smith of Missouri is a lot like Quinn in that he missed almost the entire 2010 although he was injured. Taking Smith high is banking on his potential, which is higher than some of the other DE’s already mentioned. I’m just worried about where his floor is, and I don’t know if he’s strong enough at the point of attack to hold up as a 4-3 DE unless it’s the right system. Having said all of that, he’s a dynamic pass rusher who also is athletic enough to stand up and rush as an OLB. When all is said and done, someone is going to fall in love with his potential and draft him in the top 12-15 picks, although I would wait until the 15-20 range due to my concerns about how consistent he will be at the next level. Justin Houston of Georgia is very similar as well. He’s a tweener, but he has elite athleticism and speed for someone his size, and teams will fall in love with what they can mold him into. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see a team like the Bears take someone like Houston to play DE in a Cover-2 defense, but I think he’s better fit as a rush OLB on a team like the Ravens or Jets as he just looks a lot like that type of football player.
I’ve saved two of my favorite players for last as I think they are under the radar guys who really should be talked about. Brooks Reed of Arizona will be an outstanding 3-4 rush OLB. He stood out more this season when I watched some Arizona games checking up on his linemate Ricky Elmore, and I came away much more impressed with what Reed has to offer. You will see that places like ESPN Scouts Inc are also singing Reed’s praise, and I’m glad to see this. I’ve just always thought of him as a poor man’s Clay Mathews, and I don’t mean that as a slight either. I think he’s a very similar player; he was overshadowed by other talented teammates and managed to continue to develop and grow based on hard work and effort. Reed is more experienced with game time than Mathews was at this point, and like Mathews, I think Reed will be a better pro than he was a collegian. He will not be the biggest, the fastest, or the most technically sound player on the field but he will fight tooth and nail to make a play. I actually think he could slip to the end of the first round and be paired with Mathews to make what might be the best pair of rush OLBs other than the Steelers duo. I hope that doesn’t happen as that makes for some difficult times for Bears fans moving forward. The other DE is Sam Acho of Texas. I can’t understand why he does not get the respect he should, but I think Acho is going to be a steal no matter where he goes. He’s a very intelligent player, and he’s just a well rounded prospect. I don’t think he’s a first round talent, but he’s someone I would take in the second round and be very pleased with my return on the investment. I actually thought Acho had more potential than his teammate last year in Sergio Kindle. Since he got hurt last year and never played for the Ravens (and may not ever play again due to a skull injury he suffered). In fact, if he’s there when Baltimore picks in the second round, I think he’d be an ideal fit in that defense. I think he’s athletic enough to stand and play in the 3-4, and he can play a traditional 4-3 DE position on a team that values speed and edge rushing more than size and run stuffing.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
