Mock Draft V3.0

I’m putting myself in the shoes of the GM of each team, so even though I completely expect the picks to shake out different than what I have listed, I’m going with my gut and how I rated players after watching them on film for the past 2-4 years. I could easily speculate who I think that team will take, but if I don’t agree with that, I’m going with the guy who I think they should take. I don’t do this to predict the correct order of picks. I do this to say who I think should go where based on how talented I think that player is. So just because someone else might get the order of picks closer than I do, I’d rather look back three years down the road and see how my order shook out. Because at the end of the day, as most of you know, the draft can be a 50/50 proposition at best (especially the first round). There are definitely some changes in this mock. Read on to see who’s moved up and who’s dropped down.

1. Detroit Lions- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

No change here, I’m re-building this franchise from the ground up. You can’t win without a solid foundation on the offensive and defensive lines, so I pass on the QB and go with the LT. If I had to bet money on this, I’d say they pick Stafford. I’m just not sold on him being the best player in this draft though, and I’d rather take Smith or Curry because I feel more strongly about their ability to succeed at the NFL level. The interesting point to note is that Detroit is apparently dealing with agents for all three of these players (Curry, Smith, and Stafford). Smith and Stafford have the same agents, but Curry does not. So the bargaining leverage of trying to get the tackle to take less money than the quarterback is not likely to work. What is likely though is that Curry’s agents will accept an offer at less value in order to go number one overall, and I’d be more than willing to take Curry and put him as my starting MLB from day one. Some people will say money isn’t a factor and the QB position is more critical than either of these other two spots. I’ll argue right back that while that is true, you don’t reach for a lesser talent just because that’s a more important position. What good does it do your team to have the NFL’s 16th best QB, when you could potentially have the NFL’s 4th best LT or 3rd best MLB (just best guesses on these rankings, as we haven’t seen any of them play in the NFL yet)? You take the higher rated player, especially if he’s willing to take less money. I absolutely love Curry and would have no problem with that being the pick, but I do think that getting a franchise LT is a bit more important.

2. St. Louis Rams- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

I’ve read in a few places that the Rams actually like Monroe better than they like Smith. I don’t know how much of that is true, but they really have to force the issue and take a LT here. Alex Barron is not going to get it done, and he’s in the final year of his contract. Aaron Curry would be a great fit at either SLB or MLB, but they can live with the players they currently have at those positions. OT is a huge need, and Monroe is capable of blocking Bulger’s blindside right away. If Stafford actually is available, there may be some inside the organization that will fight for him to be the pick. Bulger isn’t getting any younger, and he’s struggled to stay healthy. I just don’t think it’s time to bail on him though as he’s proven at the pro level that he can be a very good starter. He just needs time to get the ball out, which Monroe gives him.

3. Kansas City Chiefs- Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

The 3-4 may not be an ideal fit for Curry, but I’m of the belief that he’s outstanding enough to play any of the LB positions in any defensive alignment. Curry could just as easily go number one or two overall, so getting him at three is a good value. What I’ll be interested to see is what happens if Stafford does go number one overall. If he does, Seattle has made it very clear to the media that they really like Sanchez and would draft him if available. I think this is all a smokescreen where Seattle hopes someone pays the piper to Kansas City to move up and grab him before Seattle can (like Washington or the Jets). That then means that Curry will more than likely be available to them, and he’s who they have most likely wanted all along. It’s very much a conspiracy theory, but if I’ve learned anything from the draft it’s that you can’t trust anything that comes out to the media before hand. So many teams release false information in hopes that the player they want will fall to them. If for some reason Curry is gone, or KC just doesn’t like him as much as I do, then I could definitely see them grabbing Raji to play NT or Monroe to play LT (yes they drafted his former teammate Brandon Albert last year, but if you read my coverage, you’ll know I always thought he was better fit inside at OG or at RT).

4. Seattle Seahawks- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

Four picks in and I haven’t made a single change yet! I’ve already said a few times that I highly doubt things work out this way, but since I’m running all war rooms, Stafford is a Seahawk. The real question is if Seattle really is smitten with Sanchez over any other player, or if they just think he’s going to be the best of what’s available to them at this pick. If Stafford did go first, then it’s a choice of Monroe or Sanchez. In that scenario, I would lean toward the QB. Either pick is a need for this team though, Hasselbeck is 34 and missed most of last year with back problems. At this point, he’s on borrowed time, so they need the QB of their future. Water Jones is coming off of knee surgery, and he’s not young either. Of the two, I’d be more comfortable saying Jones will hold up a little longer than Hasselbeck will, so that’s why this would be a QB no matter what. If the Sanchez chatter is all just smoke like I think it may be, then Seattle will be extremely pleased to take Curry if he falls to them at this pick.

5. Cleveland Browns- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

The first change from V2.0. The Browns are yet another team making a lot of noise about wanting Sanchez, but once again I think this is a smoke screen. Curry and Crabtree would be the two best players for this team, and with Curry already gone, Crabtree is the pick. An impact pass rusher like Orakpo would be a big improvement for them, but the WR position is perilously thin for this team. If the Browns do end up trading Braylon Edwards, it’s potentially one of the worst in the league. So getting a player of Crabtree’s ilk at #5 overall is a borderline steal. If they keep Edwards, this gives the Browns two number one caliber receivers on one team, which will help make Brady Quinn or Derrick Anderson shine. An impact pass rusher can be found in round two.

6. Cincinnati Bengals- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

I think Orakpo is better off as a 4-3 defensive end. I’m not saying he wouldn’t excel as a stand up OLB in a 3-4, I just think he’s better with his hand on the ground moving forward than backward. He has good technique to stack the line against the run, and he’s an impact pass rusher, which this defense needs in order to take a step away from mediocrity. With the recent pick up of Tank Johnson, I think the Bengals have enough depth at DT to pass on Raji for the better fit in Orakpo. If the picks above this shake out differently, I think the Bengals will be hoping that Eugene Monroe falls into their laps. The Bengals OL coach put Monroe through the drills at his pro day workout, and apparently they really like him. An OT like Monroe or even Andre Smith would be a very fine pick as well, but you don’t pass on a talent like Orakpo with how much the Bengals have struggled with getting after the QB.

7. Oakland Raiders- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Big Al loves his speed, so Maclin makes perfect sense here. Jamarcus Russell really needs some other receiving weapons besides TE Zach Miller, and Maclin provides this. An OT like Andre Smith is probably the smarter move, and I’m sure former OL coach and now current head coach Tom Cable would prefer him, but it’s the champion of the track suit making the calls here. Maclin can very quickly be one of the better kick returners in the league, and for that alone it’s worth slightly over drafting him (seeing as his route running needs work).

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- BJ Raji, DT, Boston College

This may disappoint my neighbor and huge Jaguar fan Bill, but I think this is a fantastic value. With the free agent acquisitions of Tory Holt and Tra Thomas, I think the two bigger needs of WR and OT can be put on hold for the best DT in this draft in Raji. The Jags had their most successful season when they had Marcus Stroud and John Henderson wrecking havoc in the middle of the defense. With 2008 first and second round picks invested in DE’s Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, this is a lot of money to spend on one DL, but it’s worth it. Henderson and Raji are massive run stuffers who command double teams, which means that both these DE’s will see a lot of one-on-one match ups in the pass rush. That’s a win for the Jacksonville defense every time. CB is a big issue as well, but your defensive backfield always looks a lot better than it is when you have a strong DL that can get after the QB. I know that I have Mark Sanchez available still, and if that’s the case, I guarantee that Jacksonville trades out of this spot to Washington, Denver, or the Jets. However I am not going to factor in trades to this mock as it would just get messy then.

9. Green Bay Packers- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Ted Thompson loves his draft picks, and tends to lean toward just grabbing the best player available. The Pack have some needs at OT, rush OLB, and CB, so they can have their pick of what’s left on the board. If Raji somehow slipped to here, I think they would very quickly pull the trigger on him to occupy their NT position for the foreseeable future. Since I don’t agree with their move to the 3-4, I take an OT here instead. Andre Smith is worth the risk to me in the top ten. I think he’ll be able to play LT in the league, even though his best fit is at RT. With Chad Clifton still kicking for a few more years, Smith can man the right side of the line and I expect him to be a stand out player right away. He’s definitely made a lot of mistakes this off-season with the choices he’s made, but he’s not a criminal or a wife beater, so I’m willing to chalk those up to being young and immature. I hate the Packers, and I hate that they just got a little bit better with Smith. Good thing their 3-4 defense is going to suck!

10. San Francisco 49ers- Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

The only reason the 49ers go QB here is if Sanchez slips, like in this exact scenario. QB is not the biggest need for this team, and I don’t expect them to pick one up until the second day, but San Francisco cannot afford to pass on Sanchez at this point. Most people point to Sanchez’s lack of experience, but it’s his lack of outstanding tools that scares me off him the most. He does not have a cannon arm, and while he’s accurate, he’s not as accurate as a QB like Sam Bradford is. Add to this the fact that he was surrounded by NFL caliber talent at every position on offense, and that makes me question even more if he will be a great starting QB in the draft. If Sanchez is gone, like I expect him to be, then this pick probably comes down to either Michael Oher (the person I would take) or Aaron Maybin.

11. Buffalo Bills- Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

As mentioned in the post about the trade, I’m still not sure why the Bills gave up a Pro Bowl LT for so little. Because they made this mistake, the Bills absolutely have to come away from the first round with a starting OT. If it played out this way, I’d say the Bills got lucky to get who I think is one of the most underrated players in this draft. I think Oher is going to be a star in this league, and he can step right in at the spot Peters vacated at LT. A defensive end can wait until the 28th pick or even until the second round if needed.

12. Denver Broncos- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

Denver is in the Mark Sanchez sweepstakes, according to ESPN reports this morning, but I don’t think they will give up enough to be able to go get him. At the end of the day, I’d be wiling to live with Kyle Orton and Chris Simms, and I’m attacking the gaping holes on this porous defense. I’m in the minority apparently that thinks that Jackson is being entirely too far overrated, but it’s the fit that moves him up. If Denver does truly want to move to the 3-4, they need to solidify this defensive line with guys who can occupy blockers and get to the passer occasionally. I will not argue with the fact that Jackson is very easily the best 3-4 DE prospect in this draft, but that doesn’t mean he’s worth a pick this high. It fits need though, and the Broncos can grab a LB, RB, or NT with the Bears 18th pick.

13. Washington Redskins- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

I’m going a bit outside of my comfort zone here and saying I will reach for the fast rising Ayers. I do have solid reasoning for this, even though every thread in me is asking why I would even put something down like this when I don’t agree with it at all. Here is the issue: Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown are both much better pass rushers than Ayers is. And at the 13th pick, you get impact pass rushers and not one year starters like Ayers. What one needs to keep in mind though is that Greg Blache is running this defense now. Bears fans will be very familiar with Blache from his days running the Bears’ defense under Dick Jauron. Blache prefers bigger, stout DL who can stack the line against the run and let the LB’s clear everything else up (that includes blitzing on pass downs as well). Ayers is about 30lbs heavier than both Brown and Maybin, so he fits the mold better of what this team needs at the position. Look no further than Jason Taylor last season. He had such a poor year because they played him out of his comfort zone. They wanted him to hold the edge and take on blockers, which is not what he’s good at. That’s why he lasted only one year and had about four sacks in total. DE is a big need for this team, so if they stay put at 13, don’t be surprised to see Ayers picked here. I almost went with another bit of a reach in Eben Britton, as OT is also a huge need, but DE is a bit higher. Besides Sanchez and the two already mentioned, I could also see them going for an OLB like Brian Cushing based on his versatility and fit for the defense as well.

14. New Orleans Saints- Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells, RB, Ohio State

Does this team really need to improve on one of the better offenses in the league? I really don’t think so, but then again, that’s the hallmark of this team. Offense is what got them to the playoffs, and it can do the same once again. While I’m nit the biggest fan of Wells, he’s the best RB in this draft from a pure skills standpoint, and he’s the downhill runner this offense needs for the fourth quarter. Reggie Bush can’t stay healthy, and even if he did, he’s not an every down back. The passing game is where he makes his money, and that will help the Saints get on top of teams early once again. Then it’s Wells’ turn to take over in the second half and wear defenses out with his size and speed in the power running game. With Deuce McCallister injured last year, that’s what this team missed and I think it’s the reason they did so poorly. The Saints could just as easily go with Peria Jerry, Brian Cushing, or Malcolm Jenkins, but I think Wells is a good fit and a decent enough value to pull the trigger on him.

15. Houston Texans- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

I’m not changing this pick because I think it’s a good value for the Texans. I watched the combine coverage again about two weeks ago because it was replaying on the NFL Network and I will say that I forgot how poorly Jenkins performed. Having said this though, I’m a strong believer in what I see on film and Jenkins has always looked like a starting caliber NFL CB to me. I have heard some rumors that the Patriots really like Jenkins, and with three second round picks I would not be surprised one bit to see them make a move up to the 15th pick if he’s still available. If not Jenkins, than an SLB like Cushing would be a great pairing with star MLB Demeco Ryans.

16. San Diego Chargers- Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC

Jin-Ho you can now rejoice as I prognosticate that your beloved Chargers will take the second coming of Junior Seau. I have no idea why Maualuga is going so low on many different mock drafts. I think he’s an impact player and one of the top 10-15 players overall regardless of position. The biggest question mark seems to bi his tight hips in coverage, but I can remember when that was the big issue with Rey Lewis (and look how that’s turned out). Maualuga is an impact defensive player and tone setter. Play him next to Merriman and you might have the most frightening inside/outside combo in all of football (next to Urlacher and Briggs of course). If Jackson and Maualuga are both available, this is going to be a tough pick. Jackson would fit the bigger need, but I think Maualuga is the better player. I did see rumors today though that the Giants are now interested in trading up in the first round in order to get Darrius Heyward-Bey. If that is true, this would be the spot that New York would have to move to in order to keep him away from the Jets. The Chargers would definitely be willing trade partners as well seeing as they would likely get the Giants first rounder and one of their two second rounders. Being that the Chargers gave away their second rounder this year in order to move up and get FB Jacob Hester last year, they could really use the extra pick.

17. New York Jets- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

The Jets are being mentioned in almost every trade, be it to move up in the first to get Sanchez or now the rumor that they will go after Anquan Boldin now that the asking price dropped to a second rounder. Since I have them sitting tight, this pick is a toss up between Josh Freeman and a WR like DHB. Since Freeman is a good year or two from being ready to play, I think they get their deep threat WR to help them stretch the field. Another pick, which may not seem as punchy as a big play WR like Heyward-Bey, is TE Brandon Pettigrew. New head coach Rex Ryan has made no bones about the fact that he wants to play good defense and run a smash mouth run-first offense, and Pettigrew would be the big blocking TE to allow them to go primary two-TE formations with last year’s first rounder Dustin Keller. In fact, it was tough not to give them Pettigrew anyway seeing as the depth at TE is pretty much non-existent on this team outside of the fleet pass catching Keller.

18. Denver Broncos- Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State

Most draft experts would say I was nuts to have Maybin fall this far, but I just think he’s far too much of a risk/reward player to take any higher than this. He had one good year, and he wouldn’t have even started this year if it weren’t for the fact that the original starter got kicked off the team for disciplinary reasons. On tape, you cannot deny that he has an absolutely explosive first step out of his stance and he does run hard and chase plays to the backside. I just don’t think he has anything else to offer in the pass rush other than speed to the outside. Seeing that is the case, the 3-4 OLB position fits him very well and fills a need for the Donkeys as well. A NT would be the most ideal pick, but this is far too early to reach for Ron Brace. I could see Denver thinking about Beanie Wells if he were here, but this defense still has other needs that have to be filled.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

I absolutely love Peria Jerry, and I think this pick now makes a lot more sense than Freeman seeing as the Bucs signed Byron Leftwich recently. With the veterans now in place, I think this signals the fact that the Tampa Bay brass thinks Josh Johnson might be their long term answer, and they are willing to give him another year or two to develop on the bench. Jerry brings the inside pass rush presence this team hasn’t had since Warren Sapp left town. He could go as high as the 14th pick, but I think injury concerns will push him down a bit. Everette Brown would be an excellent pick as well and I would not argue with it, but I think Jerry fits a bigger need on the interior of the DL.

20. Detroit Lions- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

It only works if they pass on Stafford and the Jets don’t think Freeman is their long term answer either. It may be a bit high for a player that lucks out and goes in the first due to the severe lack of talent at this position, but it fits well into the needs and long term plans of the Lions. If they planned on going with Culpepper for the next year or two anyway, then why not get the LT first and grab Freeman here? I know it’s a risk, but it’s a lower risk to take then getting Stafford and then hoping someone like Eben Britton is available (who I think isn’t much of an upgrade over Jeff Backus). Freeman is a lot like Culpepper in size and skills, so who better to sit behind and learn from than the man himself. Brown would be a home run this late too, but I like the LT/QB combo that much better.

21. Philadelphia Eagles- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

By fleecing the Bills for their starting LT, this pick now comes down to Moreno or Pettigrew. I have Moreno rated higher, and I think he can play a much bigger role on this team than Pettigrew ever would. Moreno is a bit small to be an every down back, so it fits him well to pair up with Westbrook. He has the best hands of any back in this draft, so that means they can run either of these guys on the field and not have to alter their play calling at all. Moreno runs harder and bigger than his size, and I think he will be one of the more productive rookies on offense in his first season in the league. With Andy Reid’s propensity for offensive and defensive linemen, I had a hard time bypassing Everette Brown but RB is a much bigger need.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

The Vikings have to be hoping and praying that the draft falls this way and they fill their biggest need (RT) with a guy who can start from day one. I really like Britton as a RT, and he may even eventually be able to move to LT with some seasoning and work on his technique. It was a tough choice between the value of Brown and the value/need of Britton, and the need wins out over the better value.

23. New England Patriots- Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State

I’m shocked and dismayed that I have Brown falling this far since I am one of his biggest fans. I think he’s better suited to the 4-3, but he can definitely play standing up if needed. His biggest attribute is his pass rushing skills, and who better to take advantage of it other than big Bill. Like always, the Patriots seem to catch a lot of breaks come draft day. They don’t have many glaring needs, so they can definitely sit back and take the best available player. Brown is far and away this as I could see him going as high as the top 12. If Brown is gone like I expect, then this pick probably comes down to a choice of another pass rushing OLB like Cushing, Clay Matthews, Larry English, or Connor Barwin.

24. Atlanta Falcons- Brian Cushing, OLB, USC

I am once again shocked at how low I have another one of my favorite players in this draft going. Cushing is just a phenomenal all around talent, and I fully expect him to go much higher than this. But that’s how this has worked out so far, and Falcons have to be doing cartwheels right now. A corner like Vontae Davis would fit great as well, and might be the bigger need, but Cushing is just far too valuable to pass up this late in the first round. Pettigrew might have been the actual choice before yesterday’s pick up of Tony Gonzalez. Even though I think the Falcons will take a step back net year due to their defense, their offense should get a lot better with one of the all time greats at the TE position.

25. Miami Dolphins- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

This is a pretty big slip for Davis, but I’m not too surprised after hearing that he’s come off a bit as ‘uncoachable’ in interviews. He’s far too talented for the corner needy Dolphins to pass up though, and he’s a better value than taking a receiver here. Unlike a WR, Davis can contribute right away and if he plays up to his potential, he may be a day one starter.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

Even though the Ravens signed LJ Smith this off-season, I think that HOF TE and Raven GM Ozzie Newsome takes the draft’s best blocking TE in Pettigrew. Smith has never been known as a blocker, and neither has Todd Heap, and I’ve also heard a lot recently that Heap is pretty much done. It’s a very Ravens’ like pick as well, so it just makes sense to me. A WR would be a bigger need and a good value with someone like Percy Harvin or Hakeem Nicks, but Pettigrew fits in well all the same.

27. Indianapolis Colts- Evander ‘Ziggy’ Hood, DT, Missouri

It’s very hard to pass up Harvin here, but I think the recent positive test for weed at the combine will give Bill Polian and the Colts enough pause to go with the bigger need in a DT. I think Hood is a great value at this point, even though a lot of other draft experts don’t have him rated as highly as I do. I know the Colts want to get away from the Cover-2 style defenders, and Hood fits that defense to a T, but I think he’s more than just an undertackle. He has great strength and good size to go with his quickness, and just because he’s a penetrator in the middle doesn’t automatically mean he has to play in a Cover-2. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts go offense, but I think it’s a mistake to neglect this thin interior defensive line.

28. Buffalo Bills- Alex Mack, OC, California

Most people would call me crazy for putting Mack this high but I like him enough to say this might even be low for him technically. All year I have stuck by my evaluation that Mack is the best center to come out of college in the past ten years, and that’s too good for the Bills to pass up. A DE like Barwin, English, or even Michael Johnson would fill a need as well but all are poor in the run game. Mack is as bust free of a pick as you can find in the second half of the first round, and the Bills have now solidified their OL for the future with their two first round selections.

29. New York Giants- Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

I’m still a big fan of Hakeem Nicks, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about the fact that he gained 12 pounds between the combine and his pro day workout (for no reason, and it didn’t help that he kept his combine 40). That is the primary reason why I have moved him down, but also the fact that Britt is the faster of the two as well. It seems as though the Giants are looking for a very particular type of WR: tall, good leaper, very fast. Those are the three biggest pluses for Britt, so it just makes sense. I’m still not a fan of the fact that he catches far too many balls with his body, but I think he will serve his purpose for what this team is looking for. Again, I will not be surprised one but if the Giants trade up for Heyward-Bey as he fits what they want even better than Britt does.

30. Tennessee Titans- Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

The Titans have the enviable spot of taking what they feel is the best player available. I really like Smith, and it’s shame the fact that he’s about two inches shorter than ideal that people automatically say he’s not a first round talent. Of all the coaches in the league, Jeff Fisher is the one who I would bet does not care one bit. With the off-season loss of Chris Carr, this team needs more depth at this position and they also need a return man. Percy Harvin would be a better return man and would fit a need, but I don’t see Tennessee deviating from their usual thought process of not taking a receiver in the first round (thus eliminating Nicks as well). Smith’s aggressive style of play, and willingness to stick his nose in there on running plays as well make him a great fit here.

31. Arizona Cardinals- Clay Matthews, OLB, USC

Everyone think the Cards w Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells, RB, Ohio State ill go with a RB here, but I just think that they can find a good running back in the second round and onward. Matthews has surprisingly slipped here, and I think Arizona would be crazy to pass on a true rush OLB that this team really does not have right now. Like Tennessee, Arizona doesn’t have any real glaring needs, but I would count rush linebacker as one of them. Matthews is a late bloomer and a guy who I think will make a better pro than a college player. At worst, even if he’s a sub-package pass rusher, he has shown he can be a terror on special teams and he will contribute in that phase.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers- Max Unger, OC, Oregon

To be honest, I do not think I ever remember a draft where two centers went in the first round, but I could see it panning out this way. The Steelers have the least needs of any teams seeing as they are defending champions, so they can take a bit of a luxury and fill spots that are technically their biggest needs. The interior OL is a big weakness, and I’d even say that the entire offensive line as a whole could use depth and talent upgrades. Unger is slightly different than Mack, and just a shade behind him in my book. I think he will be an immediate starter, and he’s played all five OL positions previously, so his versatility will be a big plus. If not Unger then I would think that based on the players left this may be Darius Butler or William Beatty of UConn, Louis Delmas of Western Michigan, or Hakeem Nicks.