Thursday, April 15, 2010

Mock Draft- 1st round, picks 1-17

So I’ve given up hope of getting all of my player evals done in time, so it’s mock draft time. The hits will keep on coming all the way through to at least the third round, but I may even go as far as the fifth. Lest we not forget, this is how I see it if I’m the GM for every team. I’m not a psychic and I don’t think a great mock draft is the one that ends up being accurate. I’m more concerned with three years from now when things end up looking a lot closer to what something my mock draft might look like today. To me, that brings more satisfaction than hitting it now. The only way we will see updates if I find some shocking new info coming in to draft week, or if another blockbuster trade like the Brandon Marshall trade happens. I hope you enjoy, and I apologize for the delay everyone!

1. St. Louis Rams- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

I think this is a no brainer, even if the outrageous rumor comes true, and the Browns trade up for this pick. Sam Bradford has steadily proved he’s the top pick in this draft. As I said before, I would not have hesitated to take him number one overall LAST YEAR. So this year? Well, there is hesitation due to the injury, but if you are cleared by the greatest orthopedic surgeon of all times then I’m cool with that grade as well. Bradford solves the biggest problem this team this has had, which is a stable franchise QB. He has a good enough arm, ideal size, and some of the best accuracy I have seen in some time. It’s cut and dry, Bradford is the pick and he should be.

2. Detroit Lions- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Many outlets may have you think that with the Lions off-season acquisition of Cory Williams that DT is no longer a need, and Russell Okung should be the pick. I disagree strongly and say that when the Lions have been most successful in the draft, they have drafted the best player available that also fit need. Suh is an outstanding player that will be a long time Pro Bowler. He’s Jim Schwartz’s Albert Haynesworth, but younger and more committed to the game. Suh will make the Pro Bowl in his first three years in the league, barring a catastrophic injury. Mark it now, and call me out if I’m wrong.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Many experts will argue who is better between McCoy and Suh, but I think it’s a dumb discussion. They are two very different players that fit different styles of defensive fronts, but they have one major thing in common in that they are true impact players. It’s like asking me to pick my favorite American micro-brew beer right now. I can probably narrow it down to two choices, and both are GREAT beers, so who cares which one you get? You’ll be happy no matter what. I absolutely love McCoy as well, as his attitude is infectious. He will be a superstar, and if you have ever seen an interview with this kid, I challenge you to give me a reason why you dislike him. He’s the best possible combination of great character, great ability, great leadership, and great personality. I want to play with this guy, and that means something.

4. Washington Redskins- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

I think the Redskins fleeced the Eagles. I just don’t understand why Philly treated McNabb like they did all those years. How can you not appreciate someone who takes you to so many NFC Championship games? Yes, he didn’t win a Super Bowl, BUT AT LEAST YOU GOT MORE THAN ONE CHANCE YOU A$$HOLES! Yeah, I said it. It’s the ungrateful fans similar to this that piss me off. Have you seen a championship for your favorite team? If the answer is yes, you cannot bitch. Anyway, Okung will be a very good LT for a long time. He will start immediately and McNabb will need him. This is how you win the right way. Is he young and will he struggle at times? Yep, but you have a veteran taking snaps so you rest easy. The Redskins have made some really bad moves in the past, this is not one of them and the McNabb trade is not one of them.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Eric Berry, FS, Tennessee

Once again, many people will say that you don’t make a rookie safety the highest paid safety in the league by picking him this high. The problem with that theory? The teams that base their picks strictly on positional cost at their draft slot will be picking at this spot if not higher next year, and the year after, and the year after as long as this thinking continues. I’m the first person to say that a rookie wage scale is absolute necessary. No one argues with this point, and it’s why this isn’t an issue with the new CBA. Berry is the real deal, and he’s worth this pick. Hell, if Bradford’s shoulder hadn’t held up in follow up medical exams, I would have taken Berry as high as the third pick. Tell me this, when Ed Reed was drafted, do you think the teams that passed on him would go back and do the same thing if they knew how he would have turned out? No, I think price would not have been an issue. You improve as a team by getting the best players possible. Berry is that, and he will be one of the five best safeties. I wouldn’t argue with a pick like Bryan Bulaga here either to be honest, but I think Berry is a better player overall.

6. Seattle Seahawks- Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

So why are Kiper and McShay all of a sudden all over Trent Williams? Some agent or super secret source told them this week that they love him! And the funniest part of this all is they believed him, during the week where the most misinformation will be passed around than any other time. Seattle is lucky here in that they have a lot of very good players to choose from, especially at positions of need. I think LT is the biggest need, and Bulaga is good enough to fill this right now. My hardest decision is deciding between Bulaga, Joe Haden, Derrick Morgan, and Dez Bryant. I choose Bulaga because he can come right in and play, and he’s the most technically sound OT in this draft. It’s a lot like Jake Long, expect Long had more natural talent. In that draft, I felt Ryan Clady may have had better overall skills, but Long was more ready to come in and play. That’s the same way I feel about Okung and Bulaga, except I flip-flopped the picks this time and went for upside first. Morgan and Haden are the hardest to pass on, but a LT is just that much more important than these positions. But if either of them is the pick, I will not argue. And while I like Bryant, I don’t like him this much. You want to know what seals this the most for me? Seattle just hired all time, hall of fame caliber OL coach Joe Gibbs to teach the zone blocking scheme to this OL. Bulaga is a GREAT fit inn the zone scheme.

7. Cleveland Browns- Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Danimal, I know you are very happy to see this as this was one of the guys you told me you wanted for your beloved Browns. I’m sorry to have to tell you this, but I didn’t make this decision because of you. I made this pick because I think it’s the right decision. Drafting Morgan to play OLB in the 3-4 is more risky than Haden here because there is no risk of wondering if he will make the transition. I personally think Morgan is better fit as a 4-3 DE, so that’s why I go with Haden here. Joe Haden can be the next great corner in this league, and I don’t care what he ran at the combine or his Pro Day. I saw enough of him on film to say unequivocally that Haden will be a starter from day one and will make an impact for this team for years to come. I would not argue with Morgan though, and even Dez Bryant wouldn’t be a bad pick. The wildcard is CJ Spiller. I would have no problem picking him here, but I don’t make that move because of the shelf life of RBs and the fact that a decent RB can be had in the third.

8. Oakland Raiders- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

Holy crap, four of the first seven picks are from the Big-12! Too many people automatically picked Bruce Campbell for this after his great combine, but I don’t think Al Davis can be that stupid. Or can he??? Once again, I’m not Al Davis, so I pick Williams. I won’t go back on what I said before that I don’t think Williams will be a good LT, but he’s going to be a solid player. He can be a LT, and ideally he’s a top notch RT, but he can be serviceable on the left side if needed. Morgan would be an excellent choice at another position of need, but Oakland will never succeed unless they improve the OL. Tom Cable is a former OL coach and he’ll push for this pick.

9. Buffalo Bills- Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee

This is a very tough decision for the Bills. If they like Jimmy Clausen, they make that move even without the LT. I don’t like Clausen, so I pass, but if they did go that route then I would look for the Bills to push hard to trade their second rounder to the Ravens for top notch LT Jared Gaither. Another option would be Dez Bryant, but I think that Buddy Nix knows that this is the wrong place for that young man. It would be Brandon Marshall 2.0. So Williams is a great consolation. If any of the top three OTs falls to here, then this would be the choice no matter which one fell, but it didn’t happen in my mock. Williams will be the day one NT for this new 3-4 defense and he will make it that much better overall. If I can walk away with my NT of the future in Williams, and Gaither in the second round, then I’m a happy man. A QB is a desperate need, but you don’t reach out of desperation. They can always wait until next year or hope they strike it rich with a late round pick a la Tom Brady.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

I know, you are probably screaming at me saying ‘David Gerrard went to the Pro Bowl last year!’. Yeah, and so did the ghost of Red Grange because so many RBs pulled out of the Pro Bowl as well. The Pro Bowl matters if you are part of the first people chosen, not the fifth alternate that somehow makes it. What does Jimmy Clausen bring this team that Gerrard doesn’t? A built-in fan base for a team that is massively struggling. You get the Notre Dame loyal followers, the Jimmy Clausen fans, and the hoards of Jimmy Clausen haters interested. For a franchise desperate for viewers, I make this move even though I don’t truly believe in it. If you asked me who is the best comparison to Jimmy Clausen in the NFL, I would say David Gerrard. I will disagree though with the people who think CJ Spiller is the pick here because they become the ‘Panthers South’. It’s a wasted pick for a position of strength. I’d rather take Dez Bryant but I go with Clausen instead. Who is the best value here you may ask? That’s easy, Derrick Morgan, but Clausen just fits in my mind for some odd reason (even though he may be the white version of Byron Leftwich).

11. Denver Broncos- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama

It’s a tough choice between three players here: Earl Thomas, McClain, and Bryant. I don’t think Bryant will be the pick as they had the sure thing Bryant in Brandon Marshall that they just traded away. I think they can use that second 2nd rounder to fill the WR gap they now are faced with. McClain is the defensive leader that can take over for Brian Dawkins once he’s done playing. ILB is a desperate need, and defensive leadership and toughness is just missing from this team right now, and McClain fits perfectly with a combination of need/value/character. I really can’t argue with any of these three picks, but if Dan Williams fell here, I think they’d go value and pick him instead. I would not be surprised to see Morgan or another rush OLB player make it to this pick either.

12. Miami Dolphins- Earl Thomas, FS, Texas

I love what the Dolphins have done so far this off-season. Karlos Dansby is just coming into his prime and he will continue to get better. Brandon Marshall was worth two second rounders and the money they gave him, so another big hit. Thomas provides the sure thing starting FS that this team desperately needs. Gibril Wilson was supposed to bring toughness to the position but failed to cover deep. The Fins have two very big and physical corners, so a fast, efficient, and field aware deep centerfielder will make a big improvement for this team. I think Miami would love to see a NT like Dan Williams fall to this spot but it would take a serious shake up for that to happen (or yet another major reach by the Raiders). Derrick Morgan would fill a big need as a potential pass rushing superstar, but I love Earl Thomas and make this pick without hesitation.

13. San Francisco 49ers- CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

You may call me crazy and say that because the 49ers have Frank Gore and last year’s third rounder Glenn Coffee that this is a wasted pick. I will argue that the 49ers are close to being a play off team and desperately need a return man. They could also use some offensive weapons, and Spiller is the biggest non-QB weapon in this draft. Coffee was not exactly a standout last year, so even though he was a third rounder, you don’t pass on a home run threat like Spiller for say someone like Anthony Davis who is the fourth best OT at best in this draft. Spiller can return both punts and kicks immediately, and he’s the second back behind Gore (who, least I remind you, has been very injury prone throughout his career). If not Spiller, than Davis or Morgan make great sense here.

14. Seattle Seahawks- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

If this actually happened, I would be very shocked. Like Brian Orakpo falling as far as he did last year, I just don’t see Morgan falling this far in reality. But when trying to lay this out each time for each team, it’s realistic he could fall this far. If he does, this is an absolute home run for their first round picks. A franchise LT and a franchise DE is hard to come by with one pick, let alone two. Dez Bryant would be the explosive WR threat Pete Carroll is looking for, but I think he plays this smart and hopes to grab a player he’s familiar with in the late second like Damian Williams. Also, if the team opts to grab Morgan earlier or maybe even Joe Haden, don’t be surprised to see USC OT Charles Brown go this high. I like Brown and he’s a fantastic fit for this zone scheme as well.

15. New York Giants- Sean Weatherspoon, MLB, Missouri

Some will argue I am crazy, but I will argue that I just know football better than you. Weatherspoon is a player that steadily grew on me as time went by, and with new DC Perry Fewell calling the shots, he makes even more sense (seeing as it’s a Cover-2 defense, which requires faster MLBs). Weatherspoon is an athletic guy who can cover, blitz, tackle, and run. He’d be a great fit outside, but everyone said the same about Brian Urlacher when he came out and now look. Weatherspoon is unquestionably one of the best leaders in this draft class, and I think that matters the most to the Giants. I thought long and hard about Dez Bryant, who strangely enough makes very good sense here, but Weatherspoon is the pick.

16. Tennessee Titans- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

It’s crazy to think I could see Bryant go as high as the 6th pick to as low as this. I don’t see him falling any further than here though, as this is a team desperate for more top notch playmakers to help out Vince Young. The problem with Bryant is that I do question his commitment to be great. Someone recently asked me what was the difference between Crabtree and Bryant, and the difference is that timed speed was Crabtree’s only issue. I question Bryant’s love of the game. I think because he’s naturally gifted, he takes hard work for granted and this is the difference between the first rounder that makes it and the one that doesn’t. Jeff Fisher is the perfect coach to get the most out of Bryant. If not him, then I could see a DE like Everson Griffen or Jason Pierre-Paul being very attractive. Don’t sleep on Boise St CB Kyle Wilson either.

17. San Francisco 49ers- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Once again, Davis is a player with top notch talent and questionable work ethic. Mike Singletary is one of the best motivators in this game. I can vouch for this personally having been to a private talk Singletary once gave at a school. When he starts speaking, he makes you want to run through a wall because he told you to do so. Davis has all of the tools to be very good, but he needs motivation to fulfill his potential. Davis can start at RT if needed and between him and Joe Staley, they can fight for who should fit at which OT position. This automatically gives Alex Smith the time needed to actually make plays. If he can’t, he’s not the QB of the future and they need to move on.

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