Monday, April 19, 2010

Mock Draft- 1st round, picks 18-32

18. Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

The Steelers had good luck the last time they drafted a guard near this level of the draft in potential HOF’er Alan Faneca. I would not put Iupati in that category at all, but he’s the physical inside presence this team needs. The Steelers were terrible in short yardage situations last year and Iupati can help them there right away. He’s still raw though, and I’m not as high on him as many other experts are, but it’s tough to argue with picking him here. Once he puts some of the fundamental things together, he can straight up maul people and has the potential to help make their entire OL nastier. Kyle Wilson is a need at CB and a solid draft value to boot, but I just feel the OL is in more need of repair at this point.

19. Atlanta Falcons- Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

I think this fits very well for need and the type of player that the Falcons seem to draft ever since GM Thomas Dimitroff came on board. Graham is a guy that everyone will nit pick on because he doesn’t have ideal size or speed. But what I have seen out of Graham is that he flat out knows how to get to the QB, and at the end of the day, that’s all that matters at the next level. Jason Pierre-Paul may be the splashier pick, but I’m just not sold on his actual potential. Graham has the higher floor than JPP, and to me that matters with a first rounder as the bust potential is much lower. Sergio Kindle is an excellent pass rusher as well, but I just think he’s better fit in a 3-4. I would not argue with Everson Griffen here either, but if they went for a TE like Jermaine Gresham, I think they may end up missing out on the bigger need in a DE. This is a deep TE class, so that value can be had in the third when they pick next.

20. Houston Texans- Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

I would think the Texans have to be crossing their fingers and hoping the draft falls to them like this. CB is far and away the most glaring need for this team, and Wilson is not far behind Haden in my book. I think he can come in and immediately make an impact as a starter. It’s too perfect for of value, need, and fit.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

I was a big fan of Gresham last year, and the knee injury does not scare me off. He’s now realistically had a whole season to get healed and stronger, so he’s going to be ready to make an impact come training camp. Some panned him for not being a better blocker, but I write this off to the system he played in. Look no further than the National Championship game against Florida where he absolutely manhandled DBs like they were kids and he was an adult. He will come right in and be the starter and it allows the team to work with a personal favorite of mine from last year, Chase Coffman, to develop further. These two can make for some very interesting two-TE sets and should create mismatch nightmares for Carson Palmer to take advantage. I could see the Bengals going for the potential in Jason Pierre-Paul, but I’m too scared of his bust potential and limited experience to pass on a player of Gresham’s value.

22. New England Patriots- Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

This is another home run for the Pats, as they will hope that Kindle falls down this far (he could go as high as #12 to the Dolphins). Kindle played a similar role in Texas’s defense where he was dropping into coverage, or had his hand in the dirt rushing the passer. He may not be an impact pass rusher in the caliber of Morgan or even Graham, but he will be very good. He is underrated against the run as well, and I just like this fit for the skill set he brings to the table. Everson Griffen can play this position as well and may end up having more upside, but I think he’s more of a work in progress than Kindle will be at the rush OLB position. Knowing the Patriots though, they will probably trade down to acquire even more picks this year and next year.

23. Green Bay Packers- Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

From a pure pass rushing standpoint, this move makes good sense. Couple that with Ted Thompson’s tendency to take the best player available, and this really makes sense. Everson Griffen and Jason Pierre-Paul may get more of the headlines, but I think Hughes is the better player right now. Hughes just finds ways to get to the passer, and he looked great running the LB drills at the combine. He’s going to have some learning to do playing a new position, but the Pack can afford the luxury to some extent. They will use him wisely at first as a pass rush specialist while developing him into a overall fantastic book-end rusher with last year’s first rounder Clay Matthews Jr. In fact, with Kevin Greene as the OLBs coach, this tandem reminds me a lot of the old Steelers nightmare of Greene and Greg Lloyd. I’m a big fan of Hughes, and I think he’s going to make an excellent NFL player.

24. Philadelphia Eagles- Maurkice Pouncey, OC/OG, Florida

It would be very un-Andy Reid-like to pass on a versatile offensive lineman should one fall to him. A corner is a bigger need, and I looked long and hard at Alabama’s Kareem Jackson, but Pouncey just makes sense. The Eagles have two second round picks where they can strengthen their defensive backfield when the value is better. If Pouncey were already gone, to say the Steelers instead of Iupati, then I think Iupati would be the pick. Some people will say Taylor Mays is a physical safety in the mold of Brian Dawkins, but he isn’t close to the player Dawkins was when he played in Philly. Don’t be surprised to see Philly move those two second round picks and this pick to grab a safety that would fit like Earl Thomas.

25. Baltimore Ravens- Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State

I really like Odrick and think this pick is a perfect marriage should Odrick fall. I think Odrick deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as McCoy and Suh because of his ability to change games from the interior defensive line position. The Ravens lost Dwan Edwards this off-season, and Odrick is the perfect guy to replace him in the starting lineup. Baltimore likes to run hybrid fronts, and Odrick can play the three and the five-technique equally well. A corner is hard to pass up, as is a TE like Rob Gronkowski, but I would do back flips if Odrick fell to me this late.

26. Arizona Cardinals- Charles Brown, OT, USC

I like Brown more than a lot of other experts. He can play the blindside tackle spot, which with left handed Matt Leinart will be the right side, or the left tackle spot where he played the past three seasons at USC. There are some character concerns with him, but he’s an athletic tackle who can pass protect on an island, and this team desperately needs some more athleticism at that spot. The Cardinals already have had some success with another USC OL in OG Duece Lutui, so I can see them dipping into the well once again to solidify the OT spots with young and talented Brown’s (current RT Levi and now Charles). If it’s not an OT here, look for the Cards to grab a NT like Shaun Cody to help solidify the middle of their run defense with Karlos Dansby playing in Miami.

27. Dallas Cowboys- Nate Allen, FS, South Florida

Here’s a pick many of you probably did not see coming, nor do many of you even know much about. I really like Allen and he is a traditional FS that fits this team perfectly. Allen can cover deep, but he’s a willing and able participant in the run game. Taylor Mays gets more publicity, but I think Allen is the better overall player. Jerry Jones has learned his lesson with reaching on players with physical upside. If he drafts Mays, he’s nothing more than Roy Williams (the safety) reincarnated. Allen is just as physical, but he’s got much better field awareness. He’s the missing piece that this defense has been searching for for the past few years now. An OT like Bruce Campbell could very well end up being the pick, but he’s not game ready like Allen is. The Cowboys know they have a short window to win, so they go with the player that helps them keep that small window cracked for the immediate future.

28. San Diego Chargers- Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

This was an incredibly tough decision between RB in Mathews and NT in Terrance Cody. Both are big needs, and both fit very well, but I lean toward Mathews here because I like him a bit more than Cody overall when pressed to make a decision. Mathews will get a chance to be the workhorse back while splitting carries with Darren Sproles this year. He’ll get the reigns full time next year when the Chargers don’t want to pay Sproles the money he’s after. I wouldn’t argue one bit with Cody here, but I also think that the Chargers can grab a solid NT prospect like Cam Thomas in the top half of the second round to fill both needs.

29. New York Jets- Terrance Cody, NT, Alabama

The Jets struggled when Kris Jenkins went down last season, so they need a solid back up plan. The Jets really don’t have many needs after having a terrific off-season so far, so they can go with a bit of a luxury here in Jenkins heir apparent. It should help ensure that Jenkins is fully recovered from his injury last year, and help spell him for a few series a game. It’s very hard to pass on a potential pass rushing superstar in Everson Griffen or even TCU’s Jerry Hughes, but NT’s are hard to find and Cody is one of the best fits for this position.

30. Minnesota Vikings- Brian Price, DT, UCLA

The Vikings are also in a very enviable place in that they do not have many needs to fill. A CB would be a very fine pick here, but I like Price an awful lot, and this defense can win with good pressure up front and lesser players on the back end of the coverage. Price will fit immediately into the three man rotation and can eventually take over for Pat Williams (even though he’s a very different player than Williams is). I liken Price to a poor man’s Kevin Williams, who he will no doubt be lining up next to on passing downs. With Ray Edwards, Jared Allen, Price, and Kevin Williams rushing on 3rd downs I don’t want to be a QB in the NFC North. If the Vikings don’t think they will retain Edwards after this year, Griffen would make a great fit as well. If they go corner, expect this to be Kareem Jackson or Devin McCourty.

31. Indianapolis Colts- Everson Griffen, DE, USC

I don’t see Griffen lasting this long, but the way my picks have shaken out, he did. The Colts will immediately get a bigger and more physical presence at the POA on the edge, but also a guy with the speed to hang with their current undersized DEs. Griffen has some of the best potential of all of the defensive linemen in this draft, he just needs to consistently put his technique together with his physical skills. The Colts want to get bigger on the OL, and Bruce Campbell would accomplish this, but he’s too raw and needs more time to develop. Griffen helps this team win right now, and in the future.

32. New Orleans Saints- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Jason Pierre-Paul scares me, but this is the perfect spot to draft a player like him. He has limited experience and all of the potential in the world, but he could also never turn that potential into anything. He’s going to get every chance to make an impact as a third down pass rusher, and he can learn behind standout veterans like Alex Brown and Will Smith. With the last pick in every round, these are the kind of players that New Orleans can afford to take. I’m sure he will end up going high than this as most other media outlets really like him, but I’m weary enough to pass until the last pick of the first round

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