Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Team Needs: AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags took a big risk in last year’s draft thinking that they were an elite pass rusher or two away from being title contenders. Most people, myself included, thought they made the right moves by going up and getting Florida’s Derrick Harvey in the first and Auburn’s Quentin Groves in the second. Harvey was disappointing this year, but he had the longest contract hold out of all rookies. So that no doubt hurt his productivity and development as a rookie. I think another year of seasoning for both will help the Jags rebound in a big way. The biggest reason for Jacksonville’s poor performance this year was their porous offensive line. Khalif Barnes looked completely lost it this year and looked awful. He was so bad that I think the Jags absolutely MUST draft a LT with the eighth overall pick. The good thing for the Jags is that they should have their pick of one of the three top OT prospects in either Michael Oher of Ole Miss, Jason Smith of Baylor, or Eugene Monroe of Virginia. Left tackle is not the only spot that is required though, as center is a big issue, and depth at the OG/RT positions are a necessity. Other than the OL, this team is still looking for a long term answer at the WR position. Matt Jones played fairly well this year, but he’s still not what you’d expect out of a first round draft pick. Reggie Williams is officially a bust, and Joey Porter and Troy Williamson did absolutely nothing. So do the Jags take the risk on yet another WR this year (seeing as they have been unsuccessful every other time)? I say yes, but I think they need to look for a shifty slot receiver instead of the basketball player type of outside guy they have taken most recently. That type of player is probably better picked from the third round on, and it makes this much more palatable if the pick doesn’t pan out. On the defensive side, some help at CB is probably the biggest need. Rashean Mathis is still one of the top 5-10 cover corners in the league, but he needs someone on the other side to help take some pressure off of him. With guys like Drayton Florence, it forces Jacksonville to help him with a safety over the top, which means Mathis cannot make a mistake or take a gamble on a pick/break (which is when he’s at his best). The trade of Marcus Stroud to Buffalo had a bigger impact than I thought it would, as John Henderson got lost in double teams most of the year. So DT needs to be higher on the priority list, but I think it could wait until the 3rd or 4th rounds. The only other thing would be some depth at all three LB positions, especially MLB. But that’s not urgent by any means. I fully expect the Jags to have a very big bounce back year next year. If that OL can better protect David Gerrard they will go slip right back into the form they showed in the 2007 season.

Houston Texans

Like the Arizona Cardinals the year before, the Texans were last year’s ‘surprise team’ to make a playoff run. Well, like with the Cardinals a couple years ago, the sheik pick did not produce. It’s not for a lack of talent though because this team has some absolute superstars at a couple of positions. I think Andre Johnson may very well be the best WR in the NFL. If he’s not the best, he’s in the discussion for the top three at this position. The same goes for Mario Williams. Teams knew what to expect in 2008, and even with more double teams pointed in his direction, Williams still had a double digit sack year. What I find even more impressive is his impact in the run game as well. He’s such a complete player that teams have to game plan around him and run plays away from him. Now if the Texans can only get a pass rusher at the other defensive end position to help take some heat off Williams, then he might truly take a step forward to being one of the best ever to play the position. I know some of you may cringe at that statement since it’s so early in his career, but he has all of the tools to be one of the best DE’s of all time. So other than DE, I think CB and S are the two biggest needs on this team. Dunta Robinson is a free agent, and even with his injury history, I think the Texans need to do al they can to re-sign him. Even with Robinson, they still need to look at CB within the first three rounds of the draft. Without him, they almost have to reach within the first two if a player of worth is there for this position. With the depth at safety this year, I would expect the Texans to grab someone like a Louis Delmas of Western Michigan in the second round or maybe a William Moore of Missouri in the third. The offense doesn’t need much, but some additions to the OG or OC spots in the later rounds would be a smart move. Re-signing Pro Bowl TE Owen Daniels should also be very high on the priority list, as there isn’t a better option on the roster or in the draft. I’ll join the mass media and say that I think the Texans will have a big year in 2009. With all of the top young talent they have, there is a serious problem with the coaching staff if they don’t.

Indianapolis Colts

I’m still shocked that Colts managed to turn their season around after such a disastrous start. It does however make me wonder if this is more of a reflection of the things to come for the Colts. Has that window of opportunity started to roll up on Indy? How much will losing Tony Dungy affect this team? Those are tough questions to answer, but with Peyton Manning at the helm, you know the Colts will be in the thick of the playoff hunt no matter what. I think the hardest decision this franchise faces is cutting ties with long time, record setting, Hall of Fame bound WR Marvin Harrison. Injuries have taken their toll on Harrison and he’s not the same type of game breaker he used to be. I could see him coming back, but he would have to take a major pay cut and accept the fact that he will be no more than a third WR at best or fill a need in red zone packages. I don’t think other teams are going to be chomping at the bit to get him signed either, so maybe it’s in his best interest to take a home town discount and finish up his last year or two in Indianapolis. With this, I think that getting a long term replacement WR in the second to third round range is pretty high on the list. It’s not the top need though as Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzales are perfectly fine in the starting roles. The OL was a bit of a disappointment this year, and it seems as though the tradition of getting OG’s late in the draft or as undrafted free agents has finally come to haunt this team. The Colts drafted three guys who can start at OC last year, but all of them are very much the same kind of player (undersized, zone blocking centers). They can’t really move over to guard and be as successful. I think this team could do very well with a mauler type of guard like Duke Robinson of Oklahoma or Tyronne Green of Auburn. A big, tough, physical guard who can root defenders out of the hole is what this line is missing. It’s gotten a bit too finesse for its own good. I think a later round RB to add to the mix as a back up is about the only other offensive need this team should be looking at. That means that this draft should be heavy on defense for the Colts. The single biggest need for this team is DT. Yes, the Colts tend to lean more tend athletic and quick DL who can penetrate and disrupt plays in the backfield. I think that works fine for their ends, but their tackles need some beef to be able to hold up against the run. Teams were almost able to run at will between the tackles because Indy just could not anchor. I think it’s going to take more than one guy in this draft to solve the issue, so they need to look at addressing this with one within the first two rounds, then another at some point after the fourth round. If Peria Jerry somehow falls to them at pick #27, they should thank their lucky stars and run to the podium with the card. I seriously doubt that happens though, so the value for the next best DT starts to look a lot more attractive in the second round. If there isn’t the DT to draft there, then a top notch CB would be a big plus. This is a position the Colts have done well with stockpiling in the past, but they are now seeing a lot of these guys leave via free agency. I think the same will happen again with Kelvin Hayden this off-season. I think he’s going to get an offer that will be too much for the Colts to match, so I think the value might be best at CB for Indy’s first round choice. Linebacker is always an area of need for this team, so I would expect them to draft quantity in the later rounds. A nice SS back up for the oft-injured Bob Sanders would be a good idea as well. Any way you slice it, Indianapolis needs to do everything they can to squeeze what’s left out of these veterans over the next couple of years before it’s time to face a rebuilding phase.

Tennessee Titans

I’m a HUGE fan of Jeff Fisher. No, it’s not just because he was on the 1985-86 Bears team (the greatest team of all time, moment of silence…thank you), it’s because I love the way he leads his teams. He’s not afraid to take young guys or rookies, let them learn on the job, and pair them with veteran leaders to help steer the ship. Losing Jim Schwartz will hurt as he’s a very good defensive mind, but I still see this team being on of the best the AFC has to offer. Rookie Chris Johnson was drafted higher than most draft gurus expected, but he proved he was worth every penny. He’s the perfect compliment to the tubby one (LenDale White), and he gives this offense the home run threat they’ve lacked. The only problem is that it’s obvious that this team has no other deep threat when Johnson is out (see the playoff game against the Steelers for proof). So with this in mind, I think that WR really needs to be pushed up the Titan’s draft board. As of late, they’ve neglected this position and decided to focus on being a run-orientated team that uses the TE on the short and intermediate routes. Tennessee should be in good shape to grab one of the top WR’s, as I think the trend of shying away from the WR and RB position early will continue. A guy like Florida’s Percy Harvin would be a great fit as a versatile playmaker on this offense. He’s not a traditional WR, but I think that’s what would fit best for this team. TE Bo Scaife was the team’s leading receiver, and he’s a free agent, so TE might move up the needs list if he’s not re-signed. The biggest looming issue for the Titans, both figuratively and literally, is free agent DT Albert Haynesworth. He’s stated that he wants to stay in Tennessee, but he has also made it clear that he wants to be the highest paid DT in the league. After the back to back year’s he’s had, I think he has every reason to request this and deserves it. The Titans have cap room, so I would expect them to re-sign Haynesworth as he’s far too valuable to this team to let him leave for nothing. The only other needs for this team are at DE and LB. While Kyle Van den Bosch is a very good player, he couldn’t stay healthy and cannot be trusted at this point. And with guys like Javon Kearse as your other options, it’s time to find someone in the second round range to fill this position. The MLB position is probably the most lacking of the three LB positions, so it’s something that can adequately be addressed in the third round or onward. I expect the team to draft depth at OLB and CB for special teams if anything in the later rounds. But as I mentioned before, this is a team that will continue to be good for a years to come. If they can keep drafting well, they have the pieces in place to grind out wins on a yearly basis in a very tough division.

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