Team Needs: AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

Let’s start with the positive for the Chiefs: They were the youngest team in the league in 2008. That’s about where it ends. Picking third overall in the draft is an obvious sign that things did not go well in your season. But at least last season was used to get a good amount of rookies some much needed experience to know what the front office has to work with. Top picks Brandon Albert and Glenn Dorsey both played a lot, but neither had a very big impact. Albert performed well enough at LT to think he can play there long term. To me, I will still stick by my guns and say he’s a much better fit inside at guard, but you can’t argue with the fact that he didn’t look terrible on the edge either. Second round pick Brandon Flowers looked very good at some points, but also got burnt several time as well, which you expect out of rookie CB’s. RB Jamal Charles shined in the opportunities he was given, so much so that the always surly Larry Johnson is now expendable. Johnson won’t command the kind of value he might have once been worth, but it’s worth whatever they get to have him and his bad attitude off of the team.

The biggest news of the off-season was the hiring of personnel guru Scott Pioli. The Chiefs had to pay a lot to get him, and also had to agree that they’d be starting over with a new head coach as well, but it will be worth it in the long run. Pioli helped Belichik build a dynasty in New England, but he got largely overshadowed in the process. Now he has the spotlight all to himself to show everyone he was the man behind the curtain the whole time for the Patriots. I think Pioli is the kind of guy who will do this the smart way and build from the inside out. Is Tyler Thigpen the QB of the future for this team? I don’t think so, but it’s tough to plug in a franchise QB behind a porous OL and with a suspect defense. The rumors are that Pioli will try to get Matt Cassel from the Pats in a trade, and this makes good sense to me, but for what? The third overall pick is too much for him, and the 34th overall pick may not be enough. Maybe a swap of first rounders, but the Patriots aren’t the type of team that wants to pay top five money to a rookie. If the Chiefs can pull this off, I think this is their best idea. Going with Stafford or Sanchez (if they are there) isn’t going to make this team better right now, and the risk of potentially stunting the growth of either QB by playing them right away with sub par support around them is far greater by drafting them at #3 overall.

The defense has a lot of holes on it, so a player like Aaron Curry or BJ Raji would do a lot to help shore things up. The defensive line was what really struggled last year, and the Chiefs really missed Jared Allen’s sack production. So even though the number three pick may be high for a guy like Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown, it’s a huge need for this team. Tamba Hali is a good player, but he’s not a double digit sack guy. That means teams can double down on Dorsey, and then this team gets no pressure, which is exactly what happened. I think the ideal scenario for Kansas City is for Crabtree to slip to the third pick, and someone comes offering up several picks for the right to nab him before Seattle can. Moving down and acquiring more picks is what this team really needs, especially with new coaches in place who might bring new offensive and defensive schemes. As most of you know, it’s not the same to run a 3-4 defense with 4-3 personnel, so if this is the case, then Pioli will need all the picks he can get to acquire the right personnel for what the coaching staff wants to run. But on the same note, if Crabtree does somehow slip to the 3rd pick, I think he’d be very hard to pass up. New head coach Todd Haley knows first hand what you can do with someone with the skills of a Larry Fitzgerald. With the emerging Dwayne Bowe on the other side, this would give the Chiefs the building blocks of a very dominant passing game (assuming they keep Gonzales instead of trading him).

Back to the defense, if Kansas City isn’t sold on one of the DE’s, then I would think they hope that Aaron Curry is still available. He’s the best defensive player in this drafty, so even if it isn’t their greatest need, he’s worth taking because he’s versatile enough to fit into the 4-3 or the 3-4. Getting another corner would be good, but is not necessary until the third round or later, as would be getting another RB if Larry Johnson is indeed shipped out. This team probably needs another year or so to continue developing, but if the young talent there does continue to progress, they have the potential to be good for a while. Plus it doesn’t hurt that they play in the AFC West, which was probably the worst division in football last year.

Oakland Raiders

I would never wish death upon someone, especially not someone who has had such an impact on the shape of the NFL as it stands today, but this team will never turn around until Al Davis kicks the bucket or becomes too senile to keep his hands in the cookie jar. The game passed him a while ago, and he needs to stop being stubborn and turn over the decisions to qualified football people. Look no further than the absurd contracts that Davis issued last off-season for DeAngelo Hall and Javon Walker. Hall never fit their defensive scheme, cost them a second round draft pick as well, and was released at mid-season. Walker never really played much, and when he did, he was ineffective. I’m sure he’ll be released, and that’s such a colossal waste of cap space and money. The fortunate thing for Raiders fans is that there is talent on this team. Picking in the top 10 for the past six years or so will do that for you.

Oakland just needs to get a few more pieces in place so they can take advantage of that talent. To me, they have two very glaring needs at OT and WR. JaMarcus Russell wasn’t afforded the time in the pocket to do much, so you can’t really assess where he’s at, especially with no one to throw to except TE Zach Miller. Mario Henderson started to show some promise at the end of the year, but he’s a better fit at RT. At number seven overall, the Raiders should be able to secure one of the top OT prospects, and that’s the move they should be making. But knowing Al Davis and his love of speed, I could see them pulling the trigger on Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin instead. It’s hard to fault Al on that either, as Maclin would be a huge upgrade to their passing game (and provide Russell with a competent WR to throw to). Maclin is still more of a prospect than a polished product right now, but he has very good potential to be a game breaking WR with a bit of coaching on his route running. He’s a major factor in the return game right away as well, so his value would be great in the top 10. Being that WR is such a big need, if Crabtree blows things up, I’d point to the Raiders as the most likely team to make a move up the draft to go get him. You usually don’t see much movement in the top ten picks of the draft due to what it costs to move into this area, but when you do, it’s usually between two teams that are already in the top ten. Going from seven to two wouldn’t be a huge cost to the Raiders, and I would think St. Louis should be all over this so they can stock pile the necessary draft picks to help rebuild this team.

The defense isn’t without its needs as well. The DL on this team is in serious need of upgrades at DE and DT. Depth is the key issue, but starting quality players would also help. The oft-injured Derrick Burgess is their best defensive lineman, and that’s a risk as he’s more of a pass rusher than an every down player. I think that OT and WR warrant the higher consideration in the first and second, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Raiders look to a DT or DE at the top of the second and third rounds respectively. That is IF Al doesn’t make the move to trade for Crabtree (which would probably cost him at least the second rounder, if not more). A point I completely skipped over is the fact that All Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha is once again a free agent. I have no doubt this team will franchise him for the second season in a row, and they need to put all of their efforts into signing him long term. Asomugha has surpassed Champ Bailey as the top cover corner in the league. He’s so good at man-to-man coverage that the Raiders can stick him on an island with the opposing team’s top WR and not worry about helping him out. He’s great in the run game as well, and he’s really blossomed over the past two years. I recently saw something where someone suggested they should trade him for extra draft picks, but I just don’t see why you do this. He’s their best player, and he’s the kind of player that I would ask two first round picks in exchange. He’s that good, and he’s easily one of the top 15 or so most valuable players in the NFL regardless of position.

Denver Broncos

The best way to describe the Broncos’ season is a roller coaster. At times, Denver looked like they could play with any of the top teams in the NFL. Then at other times, they imploded and were getting beat by a horrible Raiders team. The positives for this team are on the offensive side of the ball. WR Brandon Marshall has developed into that TO caliber player that I believed he would be coming out of college. QB Jay Cutler really blossomed this year into one of the top 10 QBs in the NFL. Rookie WR Eddie Royal also had a very impressive year and may be the compliment to Marshall that they hoped he would be. And the key that makes this all work was standout rookie LT Ryan Clady. It’s nice to see Clady rub it in the face of “experts” (hear that McShay and Kiper?) who said he wasn’t physical enough or experienced enough to play on the left side. Clady only allowed a half a sack this year, which is truly outstanding, and he will be one of the pieces this team will build with.

The reason that Mike Shanahan lost his job this off season was his inability to hit on draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. DJ Williams not withstanding, there really has not been another player that Shanahan drafted who has made an impact. So the new personnel men need to leave the offense for later in the draft and focus completely on the defense. The first question to answer is what defensive scheme will they run? Mike Nolan is now in charge of the defense, and while he prefers the 3-4, I believe he’s smart enough to know they don’t have the personnel in place to run this defense. It’s hard to say what the biggest weakness is on this D as they need help at almost every position. A physical MLB that can set the tone in the run game has been missing since Al Wilson left the team. The Broncos should be in very good position to pick up a Rey Maualuga of USC in the first. To me, if Maualuga is there, they can’t afford to pass him up. If they do move to a 3-4, NT will be tough to fill, so having the physical presence that can stack and shed interior linemen is key to being successful against the run until a big run stuffing NT can be found. Speaking of the NT position, whether they run a 3-4 or a 4-3, DT is a huge void on this team. I’d see a guy like Boston College’s Ron Brace in the second round as a smart decision for a guy who can play the nose in the 3-4 or can also play the nose in a 4-3. While Champ Bailey and Dre Bly aren’t getting younger and have trouble staying healthy, they can still play at a high level. So that means getting help at both safety positions moves up the priority list. It’s a major weakness for this team, but I could see Denver addressing this via free agency instead of the draft (due to a lack of depth at this position).

On the offensive side of the ball, there aren’t many needs. Anyone who watched the Broncos or had one of these guys on their fantasy team knows that Denver had major issues at the running back position. Injuries were a major issue, and that’s proven by the fact that FB Peyton Hillis was playing as the one-back by the end of the season as he was all that was left (and even he got hurt with a few games left in the season). It’s not a major issue, but Denver should draft another body to put at this position. What also pushes this down the priority list is the fact that new head coach Josh McDaniels will use the run game to set the pass up, instead of the old Denver way of passing only to set up the run.

San Diego Chargers

Why spend my time analyzing the Chargers when I can let Diesel Draft Analysis devotee and crazy Chargers fan Jin-Ho Chung do it for me. Take it away Jin-Ho:

"A lot of what went wrong with the Chargers can be traced to a slew of injuries to their star players. OLB Shawne Merriman missed all but one game with a knee injury. RB LaDainian Tomlinson was bothered by turf toe most of the season and when he finally got healthy, he almost immediately tore his groin, which led to his being a non-factor in the playoffs. CB Antonio Cromartie, who had 10 picks and victimized Peyton Manning and Tom Brady two years ago, played with a bad hip most of the season and lost all of his confidence after getting annihilated by Denver WR Brandon Marshall in Game 2. Finally, TE Antonio Gates was bothered by a foot problem for the 1st half of the season and LOT Marcus McNeil played with a bad back, which made him largely ineffective in the running game. If each of those Pro-Bowl players return to form (and that's a very big if), the Chargers could return to elite status in a hurry. If not, GM A.J. Smith has a lot of work to do. The Chargers are hoping the return of a healthy Merriman and the addition of several former Bears assistant coaches (DBs coach Steve Wilks and DL coach Don Johnson, both of whom were on the staff of the Bear's last Super Bowl team, along with DC Ron Rivera) will help rejuvenate their wet tissue of a defense, which did play much better down the stretch under Rivera's guidance. But you can bet the "D" will get a lot of attention in the draft regardless. That will especially be true if the Chargers retain the services of Tomlinson. "LT" turns 30 before the 2009 season and while it's doubtful he'll ever recapture the form that made him the game's best RB for several years, he is still a high level performer when healthy. It will be interesting to see how much the team pursues UFA RB/return-man Darren Sproles, who burst onto the scene with his game-breaking performance against the Colts in the playoffs. Smith likes Sproles, but doesn't think he's capable of being a full-time back. The danger is if the team loses both LT and Sproles--in which case the wailing from Chargers Nation will be ominously loud--especially for a team that is angling for a new stadium deal.

The good news for the Chargers is that Philip Rivers has developed into the best QB not named Brady or Manning. In fact, you could make a case that Rivers had a better year than Peyton, the league's MVP. Rivers will have plenty of talented receivers to throw the rock to, including Gates, Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers, each of whom has the potential to crack 1,000 yards next year. Jackson has All-Pro potential and is already one of the league most physical receivers. He is extremely dangerous downfield because of his size, speed and spring. If the Chargers can get their running game back on track, this offense should be scary good. Another bright spot was rookie CB Antoine Cason, their top pick last year. Cason made his share of rookie mistakes, but in general, he displayed good cover skills and showed a knack for making big plays. He's already a solid nickel back and could probably start in a year or two if the team loses Cromartie to free agency. CB Quentin Jammer was probably their best defensive player last year. He's very hard to beat and would be a Pro Bowler if he didn't drop 95% of the passes that hit his mitts.

Assuming LT stays, the team's biggest need this off season is the DL. RDE Igor Olshansky, a UFA, will not be retained. He played gingerly last year and seemingly lost his edge. LDE Luis Castillo was also a major disappointment after signing a huge contract extension before last season started. Castillo regressed badly after being on the edge of stardom his first few years in the league. The team is desperately hoping 2008 was just a blip, because it invested beaucoup bucks in Castillo and can ill afford him turning out to be a bust. NT Jamal Williams is still a monster in the middle, but his perennially sore knees and advancing age are major concerns. The Chargers' run defense revolves around Williams' ability to consistently occupy two blockers, and if he gets hurt or isn't effective, the Chargers are very vulnerable to runs up the middle. If Smith finds a NT he loves in the draft, expect him to trade up to get him in the 1st round. Smith has been looking for Williams' successor for several years now, and he's shown a willingness to trade multiple picks if he thinks he can get a special player in return. Smith will probably look to draft Olshansky's replacement in the 3rd round (where the Chargers have an extra pick from having lost RB Michael Turner last year). The team also needs a new starting ROG to replace veteran Mike Goff, who struggled and isn't expected back, and/or a new ROT if they move Jeromey Clary, a serviceable tackle, inside to Goff's spot. Safety is another spot that could use an upgrade, but it's unlikely the Chargers will draft one until Day 2 given their other, more pressing needs. Of course, if LT is shown the door, finding his replacement immediately becomes the team's top priority. But it says here Tomlinson will be wearing lightning bolts again in 2009."

It’s hard to argue with anything Jin-Ho has said! I think the DE and NT positions are definitely a major priority, and I could see the Bolts looking hard at LSU’s DE Tyson Jackson in the first round. He’s a prototypical DE, and would be an upgrade and good value at pick number 16. I’d temper my feelings of Rivers, but I do agree that he is definitely working his way into that top five category. Getting an upgrade at OG is a need as well, but I don’t see AJ Smith addressing this position until late in the draft. And do not sleep on the Chargers next year. Shawne Merriman is the most valuable defensive player in the NFL, and getting him back will make this team dangerous. AJ Smith is one of the best GM’s in the business, so I know this team will re-load and keep pushing forward in an otherwise weak division.