Sunday, February 8, 2009

Team Needs: NFC South

I’m changing it up and finishing the NFC, then moving on to the AFC.

New Orleans Saints

It’s hard to believe the Saints took such a step back this year, but when looking at this objectively, this defense was still not at a level where this team could push for a deep playoff run. The good news for the Saints is that the offense looks to be intact and is one of the best the league has to offer. Not so much for the defense, but they have the draft to lean on for this deficiency. Last year’s number one overall pick Sedrick Ellis showed the flashes of pass rush ability that I thought would be his biggest strength, but he missed a good deal of the season with injuries. I expect big things from Ellis if he can play a full season and stay healthy. A rookie that really shined for New Orleans was fifth round steal Carl Nicks of Nebraska. Nicks was one of my favorite offensive lineman going in to the draft and I felt he had the potential to go as high as the second round. For reasons I am not aware of, he somehow slipped to the 5th where the Saints found immediate returns on their investment. Nicks started at OG for the majority of the season, but also played some tackle. I think ultimately his best position in the league will be at tackle, but he proved he can be a very good starting guard as well. I’m still very angry that the Bears passed on Nicks for Kellen Davis, as he could have been the replacement for John Tait that we are now looking for this year! As for the needs going in to this draft, LB has to be the biggest. Off-season pick up Jonathan Vilma was a big upgrade for the MLB spot, but Vilma is an UFA (unrestricted free agent). So it will be a major priority to get him re-signed, assuming the price is right for a guy who has a history or injuries. Even if Vilma is re-signed, the Saints need at least one OLB very early. I’d go as far as to say they need to come away from the draft with a player at all three LB spots for depth alone. Cornerback is another position where the Saints were lacking. Mike McKenzie is a liability in coverage at this point in his career, so he needs to go. Tracy Porter looked very promising as a rookie, but fell to a season ending injury early on. It’s possible that the Saints could look to a corner in round one like Vontae Davis, but I think the depth at corner allows them to fill this need in the second round. With Nicks performance this year, the Saints will have to make a tough decision as to what they will do with free agent OG Jahri Evans. Evans might not be a household name, but he’s a very solid, experienced starting guard. He’s the kind of young guard that slips under the radar a bit as far as most casual fans would see, but don’t be surprised to see him become a hot commodity in free agency. It’s rare that a young player of his caliber becomes available, and some guard hungry team will no doubt snatch him up if the Saints decide they are content with Nicks. If Evans does leave, the Saints need to address depth at the OG position in the later rounds. Another big need is RT. They have several guys with starting experience, but none make you think they are the long term solution. So I would not be surprised to see the Saints look to this position within the first four rounds or so. A physical SS is a commodity this team is currently lacking. They’ve drafted several guys over the past few seasons at the safety position, but none have really stepped up yet. So if a player like Patrick Chung of Oregon or William Moore of Missouri is available in the second round, it would not surprise me to see the Saints go in this direction.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m still shocked that the Bucs fired Jon Gruden. From what I’ve read it appears his inability to groom a young QB of the future was a big reason for this. I’m sure his abrasive ‘my way or the highway’ attitude with players didn’t help matters either. In steps Raheem Morris, whom the Glazer family hopes will bring a bit of Mike Tomlin-like fire. He’s the former CB’s coach (just like Tomlin was), and he’s known for being a vocal leader. I think it’s the right move, and I envision this team to continue to be defensive focused. The Bucs had a very good season, but suffered from being in a conference with three other playoff-quality teams that beat each other up six times in the year. The first decision for Morris will be deciding on who is the QB of this team moving forward. Jeff Garcia is a free agent, but he might be the best option for this team to bridge the gap to an eventual long term successor. Last year’s 5th rounder out of San Diego, Josh Johnson, might be that long term solution but he did not see the field last year. So it’s tough to know what this team will do. They will more than likely have the chance to grab a talented but raw prospect in Kansas St.’s Josh Freeman, but is he that much of an upgrade over Johnson? And Freeman is definitely not ready to start right away, so this team is still looking at a veteran to run the offense for now (such as a Garcia or even Brian Griese who is still on the roster). Another tough decision this team is faced with is re-signing WR Antonio Bryant. He had some great games down the stretch last year, but I still fear that he will go back to his old ways of dogging it if they sign him to a lucrative long term contract. The WR cupboard is pretty bare for this team though, so it almost forces the Bucs to take the risk and re-sign him. On the defensive side of the ball, this DL needs an infusion of youth and talent. Former top ten pick Gaines Adams has not developed as well as hoped yet, but he hasn’t been surrounded with players to help take some of the load as well. An active three-technique DT would go a long ways to helping this team step forward. A guy like Ole Miss’s Peria Jerry would be an ideal fit in this defense, and I think he’d make a huge impact immediately. Unfortunately with the lack of depth at DT in this year’s draft, I think Jerry may be long gone before the Bucs pick in the first. No matter what though, Tampa Bay must draft an undertackle and bigger NT to help shore up this defensive line. Another DE opposite Adams would help, but the value is going to be better later on in the second or third rounds. Derrick Brooks is probably nearing the end of his Hall of Fame caliber career, so the Bucs need to find an undersized WLB to groom as a potential replacement. Don’t be surprised to see the name Nic Harris of Oklahoma surface around the third round or so. Harris played SS at Oklahoma, but he’s very much like a Roy Williams or Will Davis as former Sooners who preceded him. He’s probably a quarter step slow to play SS in the NFL, but with a little bulk he could be a terror at WLB. To me, he has all the skills to excel at this position in the Tampa-2 defense. The running back position has been a revolving door for this team due to injuries. I like Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams, but it’s hard to trust either of them (especially Williams) to stay healthy. So if a top-shelf runner like Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells is sitting there at pick 19, it’s going to be hard for the Bucs to pass them up.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were obviously right there with the Dolphins for the most surprising team in the 2008 season. And I will also be the first to admit that I was a bit off on Matt Ryan. I liked him, but I just didn’t think he was as good as many other media outlets did. Ryan did an amazing job considering that he still needs some more help at the positions surrounding him. But I also think people need to temper their expectations for him in season two. Michael Turner should be given as much credit, if not more, as Ryan for turning this team around. It’s awfully hard to not look good at QB when you have a guy running for 1,700+ yards behind you. The former NIU Huskie proved his worth, and looks like he’s ready to step into the spotlight as one of the top 2-5 backs in the league. On offense, I think TE is the biggest need for the Falcons. Ryan did surprisingly well considering he didn’t really have your typical safety valve receiver that many teams will surround a rookie QB with. To be honest, I couldn’t even tell you who Atlanta’s starting TE was without looking it up (it was Ben Hartstock). If Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew falls to them, I think the Falcons absolutely have to jump on him. He’s not your typical new breed of offensive TE, but he’s the kind of guy this team desperately needs. He’s a fantastic blocker, and he runs the short and intermediate routes well. He’d be a nice dump off receiver for Ryan to look to when in trouble. The OL also performed a lot better than anticipated. Sam Baker showed that he can be an NFL LT, but he did suffer from a back injury. One of my favorite OL from a few drafts back, LG Justin Blalock, really took a step forward this year and played at a Pro Bowl level. But that’s where it stops. Atlanta needs to build the OC through RT spots either through free agency or the draft as I think they really played above what would be considered their typical standard of play. On defense, this team isn’t missing much. A big run stuffing DT would be a huge pick up, but the value for this position fits a lot better in the second or third round. Another safety to replace the ancient Lawyer Milloy might be a good option in the first or second round, and another corner would help their depth a great deal. I’m expecting the Falcons to take a bit of step back in the 2009 season as I think they really had everything go right for them this year. Having said this, they are building some good young depth, and they have a great combination of players at the most important positions (QB, LT, RB, and WR) to make a consistent run of it every year now.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers had a fantastic season in 2008, but I think they go into 2009 with more question marks than most would anticipate for a team that earned a first round playoff bye. The most important is whether or not Jake Delhomme is their QB of the next three to five years. Without question, he was the sole reason they lost to the Cardinals in the playoffs. He had far too many multiple interception games this year, and Delhomme has always been the type of QB who manages games. He’s never been considered a guy who can carry a team on his arm alone. With no first round draft pick this year (due to trading it to Philly last year for the rights to draft promising RT Jeff Otah), I’m not sure the team will be looking at the long term replacement for Delhomme this year. It’s possible that a guy like Josh Freeman could fall to them in the second round, but I expect the Panthers to keep adding depth at other positions so they can make another run at the title before their window closes. Jonathan Stewart proved he can be the real deal, and that came while sharing carries with breakthrough star DeAngelo Williams. These two provide the one-two punch that most teams would kill for, and it clearly states this team wants to pound the rock on the ground and win with defense. The other two issues looming for Carolina this off-season are UFA’s Jordan Gross and Julius Peppers. Peppers has already stated that he wants a change of scenery, but Lance Briggs said the same thing last year and look what happened there. It’s funny what a big lump of money will do to a player when pushed in front of his face. The only problem is that I am not sure that Carolina can afford to pay both Gross and Peppers what they are worth on the open market. I fully expect them to franchise Gross for a second year, and this is a VERY costly decision to make. But this team cannot lose Gross as he’s proven to be a top shelf LT, and that kind of player is too valuable to let go. If one of them leaves, I could see Peppers getting a mega deal based on his potentially. He’s a very hot and cold kind of guy, but when he’s on, he’s probably the best two-way DE in the league. This team is still in need of a compliment WR to Steve Smith, but I don’t know if that is their biggest need. I think finding another DE or DT to add to their rotation might be the best position to address with their first pick in the second round. Tight end is also a position that this team has struggled to fill adequately since the Wesley Walls days when the franchise was first formed. An offensive weapon like Chase Coffman of Missouri or Shane Nelson of Southern Miss would be a huge upgrade for this offense, and it would be a very good value in the second round.

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